Counteroffensive Needs Reflected In Latest NATO Aid Package

More tanks and armored vehicles begin to making their appearance closer to the front lines (as seen here) is a further signal that counteroffensive preparations are scaling up. 

The latest US and NATO aid package reflects the need for ammunition and anti-aircraft systems to ward off Russian jets and helicopters once the attacks begin. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

President Biden just announced a new package of assistance for Ukraine. The focus here is clearly on ammo. Because as Ukraine moves closer to its counteroffensive, preventing Russia from having anything that approaches air superiority is critical to Ukraine’s success. Recent attacks around Bakhmut show that Russian pilots have become more daring in attacking close to Ukrainian positions rather than firing missiles from a distance. When it comes to a counteroffensive, Ukraine needs to step up its anti-aircraft game.

 

President Biden just announced a new package of assistance for Ukraine. 

• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
• AT-4 anti-armor weapon systems
• Anti-tank mines
• Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing
• Over 9 million rounds of small arms ammunition
• Four logistics support vehicles
• Precision aerial munitions
• Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair
• Port and harbor security equipment
• Spare parts and other field equipment

The focus here is clearly on ammo, with the total package assigned a value of $325 million. The AT-4 mentioned above is a man-portable system from Saab that is reportedly effective against “tanks and combat vehicles, landing craft, helicopter, aircraft and armoured vehicles.” But nothing here really seems to address Ukraine’s need for more anti-aircraft weaponry. They are likely to made announcements on or after Friday to address that need.

With the 11th meeting of allies in support of Ukraine beginning at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday, Ukraine is already sending a clear message about what it needs from the Western nations. Despite what most people assume, the top of that list isn’t more tanks, or even highly desired modern fighter jets. It’s more air defenses.

Ukraine has asked for, and received, multiple air defense systems over the course of the invasion. Those systems have shot down hundreds of Russian missiles and hundreds more Iranian-made drones. However, before it launches any counteroffensive, Ukraine needs to improve its air defenses, not just in the few cities where defenses are now emplaced, but everywhere along the line.

It’s not just the longer-range systems to protect its cities that Ukraine is after this time. It has a particular interest in shorter-range systems that can take out drones and aircraft as well as help to protect against incoming missiles. Because as Ukraine moves closer to its much talked about counteroffensive, preventing Russia from having anything that approaches air superiority is critical to Ukraine’s success.

On March 9, Russia directed a massive barrage of 81 missiles at Ukrainian cities, largely targeting civilian infrastructure and apartment buildings. That attack included cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and six of Russia’s hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles. Despite the donations of air defense systems that have reached Ukraine over the last year, only 34 of those missiles were shot down before reaching their targets. Multiple people died in at least four cities, and half of Kyiv was once again without power for days following the attack.

That attack, now over a month ago, was the last large-scale missile attack Russia has launched against Ukraine–which is notable. Before last month, attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure were coming with much greater frequency. There were six such strikes last October alone as well as three in November, five in December, three in January, three in February, one in March, and then … pause.

But it’s not as if Russia’s missiles have gone silent. Smaller attacks continue almost daily, most of them using a mix of the S-300 missiles that constitute much of Russia’s remaining stock, often supplemented by Iranian-made drones. On Tuesday night in Ukraine, there were four reported missiles launched by Russia, causing explosions in Odesa and Vovchansk that resulted in at least two deaths.

In addition, shorter-range weapons were fired into towns and villages near the border in at least 60 locations. That’s a typical night—and exactly the kind of thing Ukraine needs to stop if it’s going to protect both its people and its infrastructure.

This week, Ukraine has received more major air defense systems that will help to protect cities and towns against this kind of attack. That includes both additional U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot Missile Defense systems and German medium-range IRIS-T SLM systems. These systems will join a growing network of overlapping systems that have been centered around Ukraine’s major cities.

However, not only are some missiles continuing to run this gauntlet of defenses, Russia seems more than willing to expend a multimillion-dollar missile to knock down a few homes or take out an electrical substation in a small village. So long as that’s true, it’s unlikely Ukraine will ever have enough air defenses. There will always be gaps, places where Russia can drop a warhead that takes lives and damages property. The localized air defense systems allow Ukraine to be quite effective against any kind of strategic attack. They don’t allow Ukraine to protect from the sort of terror attacks Russia is delivering.

The decline in major Russian missile attacks may mean that phase of the war is over, though it’s almost certain Russia still has enough missiles, especially S-300 missiles, to launch many more significant attacks. The nightly horror in places like Vovchansk may continue so long as Russia’s invasion continues—or Russian forces are pushed back out of range of the town.

Ukraine will be seeking still more of these air defense systems at Ramstein as it attempts to minimize the impact of Russian missiles. However, thanks to Russia’s reduced scale of attacks and that growing network of systems already in place, they’re no longer the primary concern.

What Ukraine really wants–in large quantities and soon–from its Western allies are systems that are short-range and portable. That primarily consists of two kinds of systems:

• Anti-aircraft guns, such as the Soviet 2K22 Tunguska.

• Surface to air missile systems, such as the American MIM-23 Hawk.

• Man-portable air defense systems, such as the French Mistral.

So far, documented losses show that Ukraine has lost nine anti-aircraft guns and 91 surface-to-air systems. In addition, they’ve expended hundreds, if not thousands, of the man-portable missiles. Their record for all this is pretty good, with at least 79 Russian jets and 81 Russian helicopters recorded as down. But when it comes to a counteroffensive, Ukraine needs to step up its anti-aircraft game.

Recent attacks around Bakhmut show that Russian pilots have become more daring in attacking close to Ukrainian positions rather than firing missiles from a distance. That doesn’t mean they’ve become immune to any of the anti-aircraft systems, including the skillful use of anti-aircraft guns.