Ukraine Troops Land On Dnipro East Bank. Raid Or Offensive Bridgehead?

There are a growing number of reports that Ukrainian troops have landed in greater strength than previously on the Russian-occupied east bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson. 

It is not clear whether this is a feint to distract Russian forces from the primary offensive or an opportunistic breach seized by reports that Russia had pulled back from the river due to troop shortages. Previous reports have stressed that Ukraine will take advantage of openings Russian weaknesses provide them. JL 

Ian Lovett and Ann Simmons report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian forces have established a presence on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. Russian military bloggers have been openly discussing whether their side had lost control of the eastern bank of the Dnipro. “Russian forces may be prioritizing maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned. Earlier the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out sorties at night or in conditions of poor visibility, now Ukrainian detachments safely cross the Dnieper from Kherson during the day.” The extent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area.

Ukrainian forces have established a presence on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region, according to the Institute for the Study of War, in what would be a significant step in Ukraine’s effort to reclaim occupied territory.

The Washington-based think tank cited geolocated footage from Russian military bloggers, who in recent days have been openly discussing whether their side had lost control of the eastern bank of the Dnipro. Russian troops withdrew to the east side of the river in November, after months of Ukrainian strikes had stretched their supply lines to the regional capital of Kherson, on the river’s western bank.

“Russian forces may be prioritizing maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned,” the institute wrote. “The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area.”

Although Ukraine has conducted operations on the Dnipro’s eastern bank in the Kherson region throughout the past year, its forces haven’t maintained a sustained presence there since the early days of the war. The Ukrainians have established positions near Oleshky, directly across the river from Kherson, according to ISW’s analysis, which also indicated that Russian forces may no longer control a number of islands in the river.

Rybar, a pro-war Telegram channel linked to the Kremlin, said Friday that Ukraine was carrying out attacks on the eastern bank using small boats, but added that Ukrainian forces didn’t usually go far beyond the bank due to concerns about maintaining supply lines. It blamed Russian bureaucracy and a lack of artillery fire for allowing Ukraine to cross the river.

“A dangerous trend is already visible,” Rybar wrote. “If earlier the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out sorties at night or in conditions of poor visibility, now Ukrainian detachments safely cross the Dnieper from Kherson during the day.”

Rybar added that the Ukrainian presence across the river might be designed to divert from a coming attack elsewhere. Last fall, Ukraine announced plans for an offensive in the Kherson region before a successful surprise assault in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment, but a Ukrainian official from the Kherson region said that, according to reports from residents of Oleshky, the country’s armed forces had maintained a presence in the area for the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, fierce fighting continued in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Sunday that its airborne units had backed the efforts of assault forces to take control of the northern and southern outskirts of the city, which has been reduced to rubble after months of heavy combat.

Western and Ukrainian officials say Russia has lost tens of thousands of men in its effort to take the city it calls Artyomovsk, as it has thrown waves of human troops toward Ukrainian positions. Kyiv’s forces have also paid a heavy price in lives as Ukraine battles to defend the city.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has launched an effort to recruit volunteers, with new billboards and television ads.

The new ads, which started to appear last week, appeal to the masculine pride of new recruits, asking, “Are you young, strong, courageous” and telling them to “be a real man.”

The U.K. Defense Ministry said it was unlikely Russia would reach its reported target of 400,000 new volunteers.

“The authorities are almost certainly seeking to delay any new, overt mandatory mobilization for as long as possible to minimize domestic dissent,” it said.

The Kremlin has said that no new mobilization is being considered, but that has done little to quell anxiety among many Russians who fear otherwise. A call-up last fall of some 300,000 reservists triggered an exodus of fighting-age Russian men.