The Low-Down: Ukrainian Drone Attacks Are Getting Closer To Moscow

The accuracy and power of Ukrainian drones is improving, making Moscow a realistic target. Ukraine reportedly planned to hit the Russian capitol on the anniversary of Russia's Ukraine invasion but desisted at US request.

The goal of such strikes is both psychological - and to get Russian air defenses pulled away from the front. JL

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

Several locations in Russia, including near Moscow - as well as Sevastopolon the Crimean peninsula - were hit by Ukrainian drone attacks Sunday and Monday. A Ukrainian UJ-22 drone packed with explosives was found near Moscow, in what appears to be the closest discovery of a weaponized Ukrainian drone near Russia’s capital. A drone matching the same description was discovered near the city of Noginsk, 31 miles east of Moscow. W"ith such attacks, Ukraine seeks to hit military or critical infrastructure facilities deep in the rear in order to reduce the morale of the population. They may have more important goal: to force the Russian command to ‘pull’ the air defense system from the front.”
Several locations in Russia, including near Moscow - as well as Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula it has occupied since 2014 - were reportedly hit by Ukrainian drone attacks Sunday and Monday, according to the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD), local government officials and various media accounts.
A Ukrainian UJ-22 drone packed with explosives was found near Moscow, in what appears to be the closest discovery of a weaponized Ukrainian drone near Russia’s capital. However, there was a discrepancy in reporting about exactly where it landed.

The official TASS media outlet, the Russian Shot news agency and Al Jazeera reported that it fell in the Bogorodsky district, about 19 miles east of central Moscow.
"In the Bogorodsky district, not far from the SNT Zarya, a fallen drone filled with explosives was found," TASS reported, citing a source. “According to him, the aircraft was discovered the day before, it was broken in half. Currently, the drone was taken for examination, during which those who launched it and where it flew to will be established.”
A “‘Ukrainian’ drone has been found outside Moscow, an official has said, adding that the discovery had forced local authorities to call off a Victory Day parade for security reasons,” Al Jazeera reported, citing the Telegram channel of Igor Sukhin, head of the Bogorodsky city district.

However, the Telegram channels for Russian media outlets Baza and Mash reported that a drone matching the same description was discovered near the city of Noginsk, about 31 miles east of Moscow.
While it is unclear exactly where the drone was found, or if these were different drones, either location is closer to Moscow than the Ukrainian UJ-22 drone discovered in February about 70 miles from the capital.
In addition to the UJ-22 drone discoveries, there were also several recent attempted Ukrainian aerial drone incursions in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, just over the border, according to the Baza's Telegram channel. The oblast has been a frequent target of Ukrainian attacks.
“The Belgorod region was massively attacked by drones,” Baza reported Monday on its Telegram channel. “Only yesterday, four UAVs flew into the region.”
“One of them, flying over the village of Mur, 500 meters from the border, was landed by means of electronic warfare. The second drone, seen on the outskirts of the village of Sereda, was also shot down - when it fell, the ammunition detonated and the drone exploded.”
In addition, “a quadcopter was able to fly to the village of Murom, 4 kilometers inside the Russian border. There, an explosive device was dropped from him onto a communications tower,” Baza reported.
Another “unidentified aircraft-type UAV could fly the farthest. [It] flew to a village in the Belgorod region, after which he fell and exploded. One person was injured, as well as a diesel transformer.”
There were also several reported Ukrainian drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast, along the border. (Google Earth image)

The Russian Rybar Telegram channel, closely aligned with the Kremlin, offered two reasons for this apparent uptick in drone attacks inside Russia.
“At first glance, with such attacks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine seek to hit military installations or critical infrastructure facilities deep in the rear in order to reduce the morale of the population,” Rybar said. “However, they may have another, much more important goal: to force the Russian command to ‘pull’ the air defense system from the front.”
Meanwhile, about 750 miles to the south, there was another uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attack on Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, on Monday, according to the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) and Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Crimean occupation governor.
“Today around 3:30 a.m. Moscow time, the Kyiv regime attempted to attack the Black Sea Fleet's base in the city of Sevastopol with three unmanned speedboats,” according to the Russian MoD. “Anti-submarine warfare forces destroyed all of the enemy's unmanned speedboats on the approach to Sevastopol Bay. There are no losses.”
The resulting explosion of the Ukrainian USVs shattered windows in four residential buildings, Razvozhayev reported Monday on his Telegram channel.
“An important point,” he added. “The drone did not enter Streletskaya Bay…Buildings, moorings and other structures were not destroyed.”
However, Andrii Ryzhenko, a Ukrainian naval expert, told The War Zone that at least one of the drone boats exploded inside the bay, where about 20 Russian vessels, including anti-submarine ships and minesweepers, were docked at the time.
"Until 6:20 a.m. [local time], helicopters of the Russian Federation were patrolling over the bay, and the internal [harbor] of Sevastopol was closed for several hours in the morning," he added.
Though the mouth of the bay received added protection in the form of boom barriers after the massive sea and aerial drone attack on Sevastopol, which took place on Oct. 29, 2022, OSINT trackers back up Ryzhenko's assertion that at least one of the drones made it inside the bay and suggest that contrary to what the Russians said, something may have been hit.
While Ukraine seems to have continued its efforts to attack Russia inside its borders and in Crimea, The Washington Post on Monday reported that Ukraine at the last minute called off a large-scale effort to attack inside Russia on the anniversary of its all-out invasion.
Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), instructed one of his officers “to get ready for mass strikes on 24 February … with everything the [G]UR had,” the newspaper reported, citing a leaked a classified report from the U.S. National Security Agency.
But on Feb. 22, the CIA circulated a new memo that the GUR “had agreed, at Washington’s request, to postpone strikes” on Moscow.While the veracity of these leaked documents, which contain intelligence snapshots from specific points in time, is hard to verify, one thing is clear. We have not heard the last about Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, as well as Crimea.