The Reason Ukraine's Forces May Have Advanced Further South Than Reported

As some predictions suggested, parts of the Russian defensive line are thinly manned and without sufficient artillery support, leading to speculation that Ukrainian advances may be even greater than current reports indicate. JL 

David Brennan reports in Newsweek, image Iryna Rybakova, AP:

Ukraine has won back significant ground from occupying Russian troops in the south and east of the country. "Ukrainian forces have likely advanced further in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast than ISW has been able to visually confirm so far. Geolocated footage shows a single Ukrainian armored vehicle reached Russian positions northwest of Verbove (17 kilometers southeast of Orikhiv), 3.5 kilometers beyond ISW's currently assessed frontline. That this lone Ukrainian vehicle advanced so far towards Russian lines without suffering Russian fire suggests Ukrainian forces have made advances southeast of Orikhiv."

Ukraine has won back significant ground from occupying Russian troops in its ongoing counteroffensive in the south and east of the country, according to the latest battlefield maps published by the Institute for the Study of War.

In its Thursday night bulletin, the ISW said Kyiv's forces are continuing offensive operations in the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast and eastern Donetsk Oblast, while defending against renewed Russian attacks in the northeastern Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian assaults in recent days have reportedly focused on the part of the Zaporizhzhia front near the towns of Orikhiv and Robotyne, and on the Vremivka salient along the administrative border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts, where Kyiv's troops on Thursday claimed to have liberated the village of Staromaiorske.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defense minister, who now advises the defense ministry, told Newsweek on Friday it's "too early" to say whether the new assaults will prove to be the main Ukrainian effort following several weeks of probing attacks.

 

These Institute for the Study of War maps show recent Ukrainian territorial gains in southern Zaporizhzhia and eastern Donetsk oblasts as Kyiv's forces push their counteroffensive.

"It may be, it may not be depending on how things develop," he said, noting that Ukraine's approach is "opportunistic" and based on limited attacks in several different areas to identify Russian weak spots.

 

"But essentially, the operational plan is quite simple: to push the Russians in all different directions, find the place where development is most likely and then push more, and basically develop that direction."

ISW geolocated battlefield footage on Wednesday suggested an assault by mechanized Ukrainian forces had broken through Russian defensive lines south of Orikhiv and penetrated several miles into the rear.

"Ukrainian forces have likely advanced further in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast than ISW has been able to visually confirm so far," the think tank wrote in its Thursday night bulletin.

"Geolocated footage published on July 27 shows that a single Ukrainian armored vehicle reached Russian anti-tank positions northwest of Verbove (17 kilometers [10.5 miles] southeast of Orikhiv), roughly 3.5 kilometers beyond ISW's currently assessed frontline."

"It is unclear why a lone Ukrainian armored vehicle approached Russian defensive positions without additional forces in support," the ISW wrote.

 

"The fact that this lone Ukrainian vehicle advanced so far towards Russian defensive lines apparently without suffering Russian fire suggests that Ukrainian forces may have made advances in the surrounding area southeast of Orikhiv of which ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation."

 

Further to the east, Ukrainian soldiers posted photos and videos of themselves liberating the village of Staromaiorske, prompting celebratory Telegram messages from President Volodymyr Zelensky.

 

"Russian milbloggers claimed overnight on July 26 and on the morning of July 27 that Ukrainian forces retained positions on the northern outskirts of Staromaiorske and continued pushing into the village itself from the north and northwest," the ISW wrote.

Kyiv and its Western backers will be hoping that the new gains are an indication that Ukraine's gradual multi-pronged push—supported by months of deep strikes on Russian command and supply hubs—is eroding Russian capabilities and defenses.

The counteroffensive began in early June, but so far Ukraine doesn't appear to have committed tens of thousands of Western-trained troops and NATO-made armor to the fight. Pentagon sources told The New York Times this week that Kyiv is now sending those units into battle.