Implications As Prigozhin Presumed Dead After His Jet Shot Down In Russia

A creative, if not very subtle, variation on the theme of Russian oligarchs falling to their deaths. The implications for Russia's not-so-special military operation are uncertain but more likely to be positive for Ukraine than not. Prigozhin, for all his histrionics, was a brutal and effective war leader. More so than Kadyrov of any of the other pretenders to Putin's throne. Prigozhin's troops have largely been swallowed by other units and Ukraine's success in its counteroffensive speaks in part to his absence.

Those who predicted Prigozhin would be dead within six months of his troops' mutiny gave him four months' too long. CIA Director William Burns said, "Revenge is a dish Putin prefers served cold." To all those who questioned or challenged Putin's hold on power, or dared to get in his way: message sent. JL

Frank Gardner and Robert Greenall report in the BBC:

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority said. The Embraer aircraft was shot down by air defences in the Tver region, north of Moscow. The 62-year-old mercenary boss headed a mutiny on 23-24 June, moving his troops from Ukraine, seizing the Russian city of Rostov on Don, and threatening to march on Moscow. The stand-off was settled by a deal which allowed Wagner troops to move to Belarus or join the Russian army. The deal did not mean he was safe. Russia watchers have described him as a "dead man walking" since the mutiny.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said.

Earlier, Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported the Embraer aircraft was shot down by air defences in the Tver region, north of Moscow.

The private jet, which was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, was carrying seven passengers and three crew.

Prigozhin led a failed mutiny against the Russian armed forces in June.

Grey Zone said local residents heard two bangs before the crash and saw two vapour trails.

Tass news agency said the plane, an Embraer Legacy belonging to Prigozhin, caught fire on hitting the ground.

The aircraft had been in the air for less than half an hour, it said.

An investigation has been launched into the crash and emergency services are searching the site.

Another news agency, Ria, said eight bodies had been recovered.

Grey Zone reports that a second business jet owned by Prigozhin landed safely in the Moscow region.

The 62-year-old mercenary boss headed the mutiny on 23-24 June, moving his troops from Ukraine, seizing the southern Russian city of Rostov on Don, and threatening to march on Moscow.

The move came after months of tension with Russian military commanders over the Ukraine conflict.

The stand-off was settled by a deal which allowed Wagner troops to move to Belarus or join the Russian army.

Prigozhin himself agreed to relocate to Belarus but has apparently been able to move freely, making public appearances in Russia and releasing a video of him purportedly in Africa.

But several Russia watchers have described him as a "dead man walking" since the mutiny.

President Putin's initial reaction to his challenge to Russia's defence establishment was vitriolic, calling it a betrayal and a stab in the back in a video message on 24 June.

The deal did not mean he was safe.

"Revenge," commented CIA director William Burns, "is a dish Putin prefers served cold" - or words to that effect.

None of this, of course, is proof that Prigozhin and his entourage were deliberately targeted.

But given the circumstances any claims that his demise, if confirmed, was an accident will see a lot of eyebrows raised.