A Blog by Jonathan Low


Aug 14, 2023

Ukraine Is Now Advancing On All Fronts

Ukrainian forces are advancing on all the major axes of the counteroffensive, which reveals that Russia does not have enough reserves, ammunition or weapons to fight everywhere along the front. JL 

Radu Hossu reports in Twitter, image Jonathan Nackstrand, AFP:

The first defensive line of the Surovikin Line has been breached between Robotyne and Verbove on the Orihiv-Tokmak axis. On the Mariupol axis, the AFU in Urozhaine controls over 50% of the town. This is where the Russians are most vulnerable. On the Kherson front, the AFU manages to generate problems big enough to force the Russians to make decisions about moving troops out of the Zaporizhzhia Front. On the Kupiansk-Kreminna front (northeast Ukraine) he AFU (without reserves) started a counter-counter-offensive operation and pushed the Russians north Kerch Bridge hit for the 4th time. (A few minutes ago it was hit for the 2nd time on the day, supposedly 8 new explosions 1. "The counteroffensive is going poorly" as supporters of the Kremlin's terrorist regime would say. So badly that the Crimean peninsula is about to become an island (there is still the Land Line of Communication - GLOC at Armiansk and the pontooZaporizhzhiaat Chongar). 2. Counter-offensive. Zaporozhye Front: 2.1 Orihiv-Tokmak axis. Robotyne is partially under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the first defensive line of the Surovikin Line has been breached between Robotyne and Verbove. Fighting is going on to remove as many of the artillery guns as possible. The AFU is advancing along two lines of communication keepingand T0803) towards Polohy (I recommend to keep this name in mind for the future). Personal opinion: why are these important to remove? Because they are the essential pillar of the Russian Army doctrine and defremindtrategy, but moreover, they are used to remine Ukrainian minefields. 2.2 Velika Novosilka-Mariupol axis (I choose this city as my endpoint). The AFU advances and begins capturing Urozhaine [controls over 50% of the town], on the east bank of the Morki Yaly River) and begins east of Urozhaine advancing south. Personal opinion: This is the end of the Surovikin Line. This is where the Russians are most vulnerable. The Russians probably relied on the advance from Marinka (a city that no longer exists, it was razed to the ground by the Russians and yet they fail to conquer it) to block the Ukrainian Armed Forces from getting through this area. They miscalculated. 3. Counter-offensive. Herson Front. (Here we have only one point. And a sweet one at that). The Kozachi Laheri/Cossack Camps and Oleshky bridgehead is developed, but the Russians don't have the manpower to reach the Ukrainians at this point. The Ukrainians are preparing for new operations to cross the Dnieper River. Personal Opinion: If the Russians hadn't blown up the Kahovkha dam, the counteroffensive would be well advanced, but even so, as Pentagon sources said yesterday, "The Ukrainian air force is performing miracles, given the circumstances, and putting the Russians on the defensive everywhere." Agree with these Pentagon sources. With all that delay, the AFU manages to generate problems in the Herson area as well, big enough to force the Russians to make decisions about moving troops out of the Vasylivka area (Zaporizhzhia Front) which will drastically vulnerability them as they approach the Herson Front on lines of communication controlled by Ukrainian artillery fire. We will see what the Russian commanders decide. 3. Kupiansk-Kreminna Front. 3.1. Kupyansk axis (northern front): the Russians advanced towards Kupyansk 2 days ago, as of yesterday the AFU (without reserves) started a counter-counter-offensive operation and pushed the Russians a few hundred meters north towards Lyman Perschy. 3.2 Svatove sector (centre of the front). The AFU pushed them right back about 5 km in the last 8 days. 3.3 Kreminna-Lyman axis (southern front): the Russians have not advanced at all towards Torske for several days, and in the woods southwest of Kreminna the use of cluster bombs is driving the Russians back. ---- The result is this: the Ukrainian counteroffensive is going badly, except that the Russians have nowhere they want, and the Ukrainians, with all possible disadvantages, are advancing on all fronts. - The Kerch Bridge, Putin's pride and joy, is currently in flames. - Crimea is close to turning into an island. - The first defensive lines of the Surovikin Line have been breached. - Between 0.5% and 1% of Russian artillery is destroyed daily. - 2/3 of the Ukrainian assault brigades have not been introduced into the counter-offensive. - Ukrthe ainian Armed Forces control (or rather are in range of Storm Shadow/SCALP and HIMARS) all land communication lines from Donbas and Crimea, i.e. those "feeding" Russian troops in the south. - The AFU is building the almost impossible: a front across the Dnieper! - The Russians are trapped in the Bakhmut area and decimated on the flanks. And it's only the second week of August. Draw your own conclusions. Obviously, any comments from you, sharing/retweeting/xtweeting or whatever this is and liking helps disseminate this information based on facts and data from the ground and not stories, so I invite you to do so.


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