Russian Attacks Fail Across Front, Ukraine Advances At Cross-Dnipro, Tokmak

Russia's suicidal attacks around Avdiivka have given Ukrainian forces advancing towards Tokmak and across the Dnipro near Kherson additional territory from which to continue their assaults on the depleted Russian forces defending those areas. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The Ukrainian military is reporting a pair of failed Russian assaults north of Kupyansk, four attacks north of Bakhmut, and seven attacks in the Klishchiivka area south of Bakhmut. Ukraine has continued to hold Klishchiivka and Andrivka in the south. South of Avdiivka, Russia reportedly made multiple failed attacks at Marinka. Notably, Russia doesn’t appear to have conducted any attacks in Zaporizhzhia or to have made any attempt to regain control of the area lost along the Dnipro River in Kherson.

There’s been some debate over whether Avdiivka really is “the new Bakhmut”—a location that Russia is determined to capture at any cost, including “meat waves” of low-quality troops being sent to their deaths for minimal gains.

Russia’s fierce Avdiivka assault is now in its third week. The number of videos showing wrecked tanks, smashed armored carriers, blasted trucks, and Russian infantry being taken out en masse is so prolific that it seems incredible. Over the past few days, as the number of Russian troops sent out without tanks or other armor to screen them from attacks has increased, some of those videos have become absolutely ghastly. I advise extreme caution if you go searching social media for action around Avdiivka at this point because there are many, many videos circulating right now that fall into the “you can’t unsee it” category. Yes, it’s Russian soldiers. No, that doesn’t make it any easier to watch or any better for your soul.

This is also difficult, but in a very different way.

On Sunday and Monday, it seemed that Russia had made a significant advance in spite of extremely heavy losses. On the north side, they stretched out their area of control by over a kilometer, creating a growing salient around the town of Krasnohorivka.

Since Wednesday, open source intelligence analyst Deep State has marked the limit of the Russian advance at the rail line running between Krasnohorivka and Stepove. However, other sources have indicated a growing, if narrow, area of Russian control spreading west to the north of Stepove. The Ukrainian General Staff reported fighting near Stepove on Thursday as part of 15 assaults turned back in the Avdiivka area.

Other sources have indicated that Russia is attempting to reach the heavily blast-damaged coke plant (that’s coke, like that used in making steel, rather than Coke as in served ice cold) about 500 meters south of the “waste mountain” which has come under sporadic Russian control.

Continuing to push west would seem to open Russia’s salient to a counterattack from the north or south. However, if Russia can move south and reach the old coking plant, they might be able to parlay this into a foothold in the extreme northwest of Avdiivka. Then Russia could repeat exactly what happened at Bakhmut—advance slowly, block by block, trading heavy losses for gains.

Up until now, the southern prong of the Russian attack seemed to be making little if any progress, with Ukrainian artillery suppressing any attempt to move much beyond Vodyane. But Russia has reportedly pulled additional reserves into the area in an effort to continue the attack. All of this makes it seem as if Avdiivka does bear a resemblance to events at Bakhmut.

Vladimir Putin wants a win. Russian generals are trying to give him one. As we’ve seen in the past, Russia counts sacrificing tens of thousands to achieve a “victory” that leads to nothing as a win.

It’s hard to say how much of this happened at Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military is also reporting a pair of failed Russian assaults north of Kupyansk, four attacks north of Bakhmut, and seven attacks in the Klishchiivka area south of Bakhmut. Russia has reportedly made some gains north of Bakhmut in the area near the Berkhivka reservoir, but the change doesn’t appear to be very large. Ukraine has continued to hold Klishchiivka and Andrivka in the south.

South of Avdiivka, Russia reportedly made multiple failed attacks at Marinka. The dividing line in that city appears to be about where it was three months ago, despite literally dozens of reported assaults.

Notably, Russia doesn’t appear to have conducted any attacks in Zaporizhzhia or to have made any attempt to regain control of the area lost along the Dnipro River in Kherson.