Ukraine Shoots Down Russian Su-24M, Suggesting Use of Patriot Missiles
Russia is increasingly using jet fighters to launch 'stand-off' glide-bomb missiles against Ukrainian forces. It is doing so because it fears Ukraine's air defenses and because it is running out of more accurate missiles.
If the Ukrainians used a Patriot or other missiles for this purpose, it suggests that thwarting such attacks is both doable and useful as part of its attritional strategy for depleting Russian military resources. JL
Joseph Trevithick reports in The Drive:
The Ukrainian Air Force shot down a RussianSu-24M Fencer jetover the western Black Sea near Snake Island. There is speculation that a U.S.-madePatriot surface-to-air missile brought the Su-24M down. That could point to an effort by Ukraine's to disruptRussian strikes on thewestern portion of the country. With long-range missiles running low and Shahed-136s making up much of
Russia's standoff strike capability, fixed-wing
airstrikes using glide bombs or missiles against ground targets,would not be surprising. Ukraine denying them that ability
and giving them a bloody nose in the process would
deter future strikes.
Posts across the Ukrainian Air Force'ssocial media accounts announcedthe shootdown of the Russian Su-24M earlier today, adding that the Fencer had been flying with a Su-30SM Flanker fighter as its escort at the time. An unspecified surface-to-air missile was said to have been used to knock out the Su-24M.
A statement attributed to Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine-Lieutenant General Nikolai Oleshchuk further quipped that the Russian cruiser Moskva, which sunk in the same general area of the Black Sea last year after being struck by multiple UkrainianNeptune anti-ship cruise missiles, "will soon become an aircraft carrier!"
A screenshot of the machine translation of the Ukrainian Air Force's Facebook post about the claimed Su-24M shootdown.Ukrainian Air Force via Facebook
Though the Su-24M was reportedly brought down near Snake Island, the Ukrainian Air Force says it was attempting to launch "rocket-bomb" strikes – something we will come back to later – on or around the country'sstrategic western port city of Odesa.
The War Zonecannot independently verify these claims and, at the time of writing, Russian authorities do not appear to have confirmed the loss of the Su-24M. However, Russian-language social media channels have posted about the Fencer being shot down over the Black Sea. This includes the Fighterbomber Telegram channel, which is understood to have close links to the Russian Air Force. At least one other Telegram channel has claimed that Ukrainian forces employedPatriot surface-to-air missilesagainst the Fencer.
There are further unconfirmed claims from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that a search and rescue effort to try to recover the Fencer's crew was subsequently mounted.
What the "rocket-bomb" munitions that Ukraine claims the Su-24M was armed with may have been is unclear, but this could be a reference to Russian 'dumb' bombs fitted with stand-off glide bomb kits. These weaponsfirst began to appearin the conflict earlier this year and have been seen under the wings of Russian Su-24Ms, as well asSu-34 Fullback combat jets. You can read more about these wing kitshere.
Russian Su-24Mshave also employed Kh-31stand-off missiles in the course of the conflict in Ukraine.
For any strike on Odesa, or other targets along Ukraine's western Black Sea coastline, stand-off munitions would be essential for keeping the launching platform as far out to sea, and away from enemy defenses, as possible. This, in turn, gets back to the claims about a Patriot surface-to-air missile having taken out the Su-24M.
If Ukrainian forces did indeed use a Patriot to shoot down the Su-24M over the Black Sea, this would mean that at least one of these systems has been deployed in the southwestern end of the country. ThoughThe War Zonecannot confirm whether or not this is true, there is something of a precedent for this with the deployment of Patriots in eastern Ukraine very close to the Russian border. That challenged the ability of Russian aircraft to launch stand-off strikes from the safety of their country's airspace. The Ukrainian Air Force saysit used Patriots to destroyfive Russian aircraft, three Mi-8s, a Su-34, and a Su-35 Flanker-E fighter, while they were flying over Russia's western Bryansk region during one particular flurry of air and counter-air activity back in May.
A screen capture from a previously released Ukrainian Air Force video showing kill markings on a portion of a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system. Silhouettes of three Russian helicopters and two Russian combat jets all show the date May 13, 2023 (130523). Ukrainian authorities have subsequently said all of those aircraft and helicopters were shot down inside Russian airspace.Ukrainian Armed Forces
The Ukrainians could have employed another type of surface-to-air missile besides Patriot to bring down the Su-24M. A shorter-range system could potentially have been employed, too. Snake Island isnow back under Ukrainian controland the country claimed earlier this yearto have retakena numberof offshore oil and gas drilling platformsthat could potentially host air defense assets. Surveillance capabilities to help spot and track incoming aircraft could also be positioned on Snake Island or these platforms.
The claim that a Su-30SM was escorting the Su-24M when it was brought down, if accurate, would be an indication that the Russians already have concerns about Ukrainian air defense threats in that part of the Black Sea.
With long-range missiles running low and Shahed-136s making up much of Russia's current standoff strike capability, turning to fixed-wing airstrikes against coastal targets using glide bombs or missiles, such as anti-ship missiles, in an 'off label' form against ground targets, would not be that surprising. Ukraine looking to deny them that ability and giving them a bloody nose in the process would make sense here to deter future strikes.
It remains to be seen whether or not more information will emerge that substantiates the claim that Patriot surface-to-air missiles were used in the apparent shootdown of the Russian Su-24M over the Western Black Sea earlier today. At the same time, it would not be surprising to learn that this incident reflects Ukrainian forces taking new steps to challenge Russia in this crucial corridor.
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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