The Reason A 60 Year Old US Howitzer Is Wreaking Havoc For Ukraine Against Russia

It's durable, reliable, accurate out to 42 miles,  there are thousands in service which means there are plenty of spare parts - and lots of available ammunition, making it a kind of heavy artillery version of the AK-47. JL 

Sofrep reports:

Western allies have supplied Ukraine with 50 M-109s, more than any other 155mm NATO-standard self-propelled gun given to Ukraine up to now. The first M-109 used in the U.S. in 1963, (but) updated versions are still being produced. Hundreds of second-hand units are available, which makes it a good option to reinforce Ukraine. Its maximum range extends to 42 miles and is noted for its reliability and abundance of spare parts. The M-109’s reliability and suitability for the task instead of more modern tools ensure  best outcomes.

Ukrainian Troops To Start Patriot Missile Training This Month

The Ukrainian military is becoming one of the most advanced in the world. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Training on the Patriot missile system that the U.S. is supplying Kyiv will start in January, the White House said. The Patriot system is a ground-based, mobile missile defense interceptor, which can detect, track and engage drones as well as cruise missiles, and short-range or tactical ballistic missiles. Each Patriot battery has a truck-mounted launching system with eight launchers that can hold up to four missile interceptors each, a ground radar, a control station and a generator. A "line battery" of 90 soldiers is required for the control and command of the system

How Ending Non-Competes Could Turbocharge Innovation

Studies have shown that successful innovation is about information sharing and cross-fertilization. Restricting that process through non competes which limits the ability of people to move around and share ideas may stifle innovation and lead to stagnation. JL

Mike Masnick reports in Tech Dirt:

Non-compete agreements not only stifle sharing of information, but contribute to company stagnation. It goes back to the importance of knowledge and information sharing, rather than hoarding. What studies have shown is that innovation occurs through idea sharing among people working on big breakthroughs. The combination of different viewpoints, and different perspectives, often is what leads to the big breakthrough (at which point competitors can innovate on top of the big new thing). The lack of non-competes is an enabling tool in making that happen, because it allows the cross pollination of these ideas as people switch companies.

First Few Surviving Russian Convicts Recruited To Fight Ukraine Get To Go Home

Reports of low convict survival rates in frontline service have made recruiting more of them difficult. 

Of the 35,000 recruited by Wagner so far, 24 survived to complete their service to date. JL 

Anatoly Kurmanaev and Alina Lobzina report in the New York Times:

A first group of prisoners recruited to fight in Ukraine have completed their service and been pardoned  six months after the first reports of Wagner’s prisoner recruitment drive. The move highlights the Kremlin’s extralegal use of prisoners to replenish its decimated military. It was unclear what legal mechanism was used to free the men. Since June, Wagner signed up  35,000 prisoners for service, nearly 10% of Russia’s prewar male prison population. Two dozen men completed their military contracts  amid growing reports of high mortality rates and of inconsistent payment.

Hell In High Definition: Ukraine's Frontline Aerial Recon Troops In Bakhmut

After almost a year of high tech war, drone operations have become a deeply a specialized field of operations, essential to battlefield success - and of great personal risk to those who wage it. JL 

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

In coordination with Ukrainian units in their sector, aerial reconnaissance and assault drone operators identify targets, correct artillery fire, and provide reconnaissance support with their high-definition broadcast. In ideal conditions, with artillery at the ready, it can take as little as five minutes between the drone pilot spotting a target and Ukrainian artillery engaging it. “Russian soldiers complain how easily and quickly Ukrainians are able to call for artillery strikes. It’s much harder to do the same across the Russian chain of command.”

Why Boosting Ukraine's Maneuverability-Mobility Is Focus Of New US Aid Package

The point of the new US and NATO aid packages, which focus on more maneuverable and mobile systems is to help Ukraine push the Russians back decisively. And win.  

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

The new package is part of a growing effort by the U.S. and its allies - who also recently agreed to provide heavy armored vehicles like German Marders and French AMX-10 RCs - to improve Ukraine’s ability to conduct maneuver warfare and “change the equation on the battlefield." It meshes with a new maneuver training program for Ukrainians announced last month. “As you look at the U.S. and the international response, it (enables) Ukraine to change the equation on the battlefield, gain momentum and take back territory. Through that combined arms, they will better be able to integrate all of their different capabilities to make greater progress on the battlefield and push back the Russians.”

Russian Bakhmut Attack May Be About Wagner Control of Its Gypsum and Salt Mines

Bizarre and appalling, but at least raw greed explains Russia's sheer bloody-mindedness with regard to continuing senseless attacks at Bakhmut. 

The question is why Russian soldiers put up with it. JL 

The Guardian reports:

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the founder of Russia’s most powerful mercenary force, the Wagner Group is interested in taking control of salt and gypsum from mines near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, according to a White House official. There were indications that monetary motives were driving Russia’s and Prigozhin’s “obsession” with Bakhmut. Last month,  Ukrainian troops fighting in the area told the Guardian that the eastern city lacked any obvious strategic value and questioned why Russia was so focused on what Prigozhin himself dubbed the “Bakhmut meat grinder”. 

Cope Cage Confidential: The Reason Russian Tanks Have Underperformed In Ukraine

Tanks are neither obsolete nor ineffective, despite their poor performance for Russia in Ukraine. 

The issue is that on the high tech battlefield of today, they need to be used in a combined arms manner, closely coordinating with infantry, artillery, drones and signal intelligence. Russian troops have not been able to muster that capability and their tanks have suffered. In addition Russian design makes its tanks vulnerable to hand held missiles and other armaments.  The result has been catastrophic for Russian forces - and their once fearsome reputation. JL 

Stefan Korshak reports in The Kyiv Post:

Russia, the country with theoretically the most massive tank fleet in the world, was reduced to sending a 41 refurbished T-62 tanks intended for export to Africa, to shore up (its forces) in Ukraine. Russian tanks have proved extremely vulnerable to missiles like the Javelin and the NLAW.  "We welded grates on top of our tanks." Dubbed "cope cages" by NATO and "BBQ grills" by the tankers themselves, the grates didn’t stop the missiles. (Plus) "tanks are easy to find with a drone and one that isn’t moving is pretty easy to hit with a munition…you can drop a grenade down a hatch or blow off a tread."

Why US Aid To Ukraine May Be the Best Bargain In US Military History

At a cost lower than annual expenditures in Iraq - and without the commitment of a single US soldier - the US has helped destroy the Russian army, reduced the already-unimpressive Russian economy even further, humiliated Russian leadership and tarnished Russia's global reputation. 

Not a bad year's work. JL 

Gwynne Dyer reports in the Hamilton Spectator:

The war in Ukraine is a very low-cost solution to a problem Americans didn’t even know they had. Putin’s regime is a de-industrialized minnow (smaller economy than Canada’s). Russia isnt a military threat to NATO. Russian missile attacks are more a temper tantrum than a strategy. Ukrainian civilian casualties are in single digits most days, and the local power outages rarely last more than half a day. The US doesn’t have to commit a single American soldier to keep Russia fully occupied and drifting toward bankruptcy. U.S. military aid to Ukraine is less than the annual cost of its war in Iraq, and 10% of the current U.S. defence budget. This is the best bargain in U.S. military history.

To Little Surprise, Not Even Russian Troops Are Respecting Putin's Ceasefire

Ukraine was understandably skeptical about Putin's motives for a ceasefire - let alone his sincerity - especially given the reality that Ukraine is perceived to be winning. 

Russian forces seemed similarly unimpressed with the concept. JL 

Megan Specia reports in the New York Times:

A unilateral Russian cease-fire announced for Friday appeared to have little effect. Moscow claimed it was defending itself against continuing Ukrainian strikes. Ukraine - which had not agreed to the cease-fire - reported continued Russian attacks. Residents in Bakhmut said the sounds of fighting continued and that nothing had changed in the area despite the purported pause. “Everyone in the world knows how the Kremlin uses lulls in the war to continue the war with new force.” The 36-hour cease-fire was to begin at noon local time on Friday. Less than an hour later, an air-raid alert was issued for all of Ukraine.

The Importance Of US, Germany, France Now Providing Ukraine With Armor

These moves are significant, given previous NATO reluctance to provide Ukraine with heavy armored vehicles. 

And they suggest that, in combination with battalion level training for thousands of Ukrainian troops in Germany this winter, NATO perceives that Ukraine may be able to push the Russian invaders out of most, if not all, of the country, this year. JL 

Clea Caulcutt reports in Politico:

The French decision was “the first time a Western-designed tank will be delivered to Ukraine. Hours later, Germany and the U.S. announced Germany will provide its Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicle (and) in a joint statement, the U.S. will be sending Ukraine the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. The moves signal that tank deliveries are no longer off-limits (and) the upcoming deliveries may be just the beginning. Berlin will also join the U.S. in donating a U.S.-made Patriot air defense battery.

How the Economy Added 223,000 Jobs In December Despite Recession Warnings

Despite relentless economic prognostications to the contrary, jobs continue to grow, underpinning an economy many assume is about to sink into recession. 

Among the reasons is that with every business in every sector now, at its core, being a tech company, mass layoffs by the big tech firms have provided smaller and less overtly tech businesses with skills and talent they had previously been unable to secure. The result is that most laid off tech workers are finding new jobs within one to three months. The looming question is whether this continued hiring strength will forestall a recession. JL

Lauren Gurley and Abha Bhattarai report in the Washington Post:

The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in December marking the 24th straight month of robust job growth that shifted the balance of power in the labor market, giving workers more options to seek better jobs and higher wages. The softening in the labor market appears to be benefiting small- and medium-size employers that had spent much of 2022 scrambling for workers, with the limitations shaped by the pandemic. More of these companies are now finding the employees they need. Among recently laid-off tech workers, 40% found a job within one month and 80% did so within three months.

Russia Deploying New Units To Crimea As Fears Of Next Ukraine Offensive Rise

Russia appears to be preparing for the likelihood that when Ukraine launches its next offensive sometime in the next few months it will have the capability to push Russian troops back into Crimea and possibly take some or all of that peninsula. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Russia is deploying new units to Crimea, as Ukraine looks to recapture the Black Sea peninsula. The British Ministry of Defence assessed that Russia is regrouping its forces for a potential Ukrainian push into Crimea. It said Russian units have constructed new trench systems near the border of Crimea. Early on Wednesday, explosions were heard near Russia's Belbek military airfield in Sevastopol, Crimea, which is home to the 38th fighter regiment of the Russian Air Force.

The Four Fronts On Which Ukraine Is Beating Russia

The fronts are: the battlefield; the energy offensive against Ukraine and Europe; the diplomatic front where talk of economic justice and war crime accountability prevail; and the Russian domestic front where there appears to be growing unease, if not revolt, against the war. 

By all accounts, this suggests Ukraine is winning right now in every sphere in which it is engaged. JL

Scott Lucas reports in The Conversation via Sofrep:

On the battlefield, the Ukrainian pattern through the autumn has been to degrade Russian capabilities, through strikes before advancing on the ground. The strikes have damaged or destroyed bases, warplanes, ammunition depots, bridges and logistics and supply positions. That is likely to be the pattern this winter as well.  On the energy front, Ukrainian will has not broken amid round-the-clock repairs and blackouts. Putin's energy offensive, as well as the “grain war” has failed to dent western resolve. There are signs of Russia's diminished capacity to continue this barrage. On the diplomatic front, there is a focus on justice and accountability for war crimes. (And) Putin faces pressure on multiple domestic fronts.

The Reason Amazon Is Laying Off More Workers Than Originally Planned

The interesting story here is that Amazon clearly expected pandemic-driven growth in both its retail and cloud storage businesses to continue, so hired to meet anticipated demand - which then failed to materialize, despite increased consumer incomes from surprisingly steady economic performance bolstered by government intervention. 

But Amazon may also have been hurt by growing perceptions that the quality of its offerings - and its pricing - is no longer better than retail or other online alternatives. And corporations have not needed as much cloud storage either. The question is why Amazon, long considered prescient analytically, did not see this coming. Possibly, early pandemic-era shortages that subjected it to criticism, convinced it to overhire early, knowing it could cut back later. Or it may just be that Amazon is, occasionally, fallible, like the rest of the world. JL

Bobby Allyn reports in NPR:

The cuts will primarily hit the company's corporate workforce and will not affect hourly warehouse workers. The staff reductions were set off by the company's rapid hiring over the last several years. Amazon watched growth slow down from its pandemic-era tear, just as inflation being at a 40-year high crimped sales. The pandemic was an enormous boon to its bottom line, with online sales skyrocketing as people avoided in-store shopping and the need for cloud storage exploded with more businesses and governments moving operations online. That led Amazon to go on a hiring spree, adding hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Ukrainians See Russians Shifting Artillery Away From Failed Bakhmut Battle

There appears to be growing evidence, including artillery volume as well as the number and size of infantry attacks, that Russia recognizes it does not have the strength to take Bakhmut and is attempting to shift its focus elsewhere in Donbas. JL 

Alistair MacDonald reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russian troops have tempered their assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian commanders say, as stiff resistance forces Russian units to shift some of their firepower to the nearby town of Soledar. Ukraine has committed significant reinforcements to Bakhmut, blunting Russian attacks. Russian fire had roughly halved in recent days. Ukraine’s resistance has forced a rethink. “They need one small victory because they can’t take [Bakhmut].”

Despite the Deadly Danger, Russian Troops Refuse To Stop Using Cellphones

Part of the problem is that Russian troops often don't trust their commanders so are not inclined to listen to orders that require changing the habits of a young lifetime.

But some of their vulnerability comes from believing if they are careful in what they say, they won't be targeted, not understanding the phone's data signal alone can reveal their location to Ukrainian artillery. JL  

Alan Yuhas and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Russian commanders have tried, repeatedly, to keep phones off the battlefield. But just as often, soldiers found ways to circumvent the rules. Russian soldiers are aware Ukrainian intelligence could be listening — and that they should choose their words carefully, to avoid giving away their locations. But the soldiers did not appear to know that cellphone data alone could betray them, giving Ukrainians enough to pinpoint a phone’s location down to an apartment building. “This is what they do all day long. We have to undo 18 years of communicating all day long and tell them that will get you killed.”

Why Bakhmut Shows Russia Knows It's Losing And Plans To Keep Losing

Because the only alternative is Putin's capitulation and exile. Or death. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The six-month effort to capture Bakhmut has now cost Russia tens of thousands of troops, hundreds of tanks, and the expenditure of so much artillery that for the moment, Russian guns are silenced. It’s unclear if Russia even has a goal beyond sending the next group of men to die at Bakhmut. Do they have a plan for what happens next if they actually capture the city? Ukraine is continuing its HIMARS attacks against Russian positions. (But) over the last few days the focus of those attacks has changed from ammunition depots to “clusters of Russian troops, contributing to daily reports of high Russian casualties. On Tuesday, the reported number of Russian troops killed was 720.” 

France Becomes First NATO Country To Provide Ukraine With Tanks

Tanks were the land weapon too-far for NATO militaries to provide Ukraine. Until now. 

With the US seriously discussing the provision of Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and France providing light tanks, the perception is that NATO has concluded Russia doesnt have anything left beyond the nuclear weapons it is unlikely to use and so it is time to help Ukraine finish off the Russian invasion once and for all in 2023. The AMX-10 can penetrate the armor of older Russian tank models. JL 

Agence France-Presse reports:

France is to become the first Western country to deliver tanks to Ukraine, after talks between Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky.The move to supply the French-made AMX-10 RC to Ukraine -- a light tank in service since the 1980s that is being phased out in the French military -- represents a significant shift in French military support for Ukraine. Paris has already delivered state-of-the-art artillery, armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft missiles and air-defence systems to Ukraine. Designed for reconnaissance missions, the AMX-10 RC tanks are light and six-wheeled, rather than on tracks. They are "very mobile... high-performance"

How the US Has Benefitted From the Massive Effort To Arm Ukraine

The US has relearned the lessons from WWII - and even the US Civil War - that conventional war is industrial war which requires much greater capacity to produce and deliver than did the anti-terror conflicts of the early 21st century. 

This knowledge - and the answers to the questions it poses will be important and useful as the US plans for the future. JL

Karen De Young and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

What began as an ad hoc supply of small arms and short-range defenses has become a torrent of precision systems - Switchblades and HAWKS, HIMARS, NASAMS and PATRIOTS. The tempo has evolved into precision choreography in the 10 months since Russia’s Ukraine invasion as U.S. commitments surpass $20 billion in military support. Years after  the U.S. shifted focus from conventional warfare to counterterrorism and space-aged weaponry, Ukraine has shown that trench battles require a steady, long-term stream of equipment now in short supply. “A conventional war is an industrial war.”

Ukraine Has Shot Down 500 Russian Drones Since September

Ukraine shot down every single drone fired at its territory over the two day New Years weekend. JL

The Kyiv Independent reports:

Since Sep. 11, the Ukrainian military has shot down nearly 500 drones launched by Russia. 84 of these drones were launched in the first two days of 2023, and all of them were downed. Asked whether Russia is running out of supplies, a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman said “everything will depend on the Iranian capacity and willingness to continue supplying such drones.” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 19 that Russia had received a new batch of 250 Iranian drones.

Russia Now Blaming Deadly Ukraine Rocket Attack On Its Soldiers' Cellphone Use

Doing so conveniently diverts blame from the Russian officers who placed them in an unprotected location within range of Ukrainian artillery - and diverts blame from Putin's ongoing mismanagement of the war. JL 

Will Vernon and Elsa Maishman report in the BBC:

Russia has said a new year missile attack that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers happened because troops were using mobile phones, defying a ban. Turning on the phones and massive use of them allowed the enemy to locate its target, officials said. Ukraine says 400 soldiers were killed - and another 300 wounded - in the attack. The military's official death toll is the highest single loss of life Moscow had admitted since the war began. The Defense Ministry said "responsible officials" would be brought to justice, suggesting something went wrong. This is highly unusual for Moscow - very rarely do authorities admit errors have been made.

The Reason A Russian Breakthrough At Bakhmut Is Unlikely

The Russians no longer have the troops, the armor or the artillery to force a breakthrough at Bakhmut. While they continue to attack at a reduced level, they are simply wasting more manpower and ammunition. JL

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Ukraine is ramping up its reinforcements in the city of Bakhmut, making a breakthrough for Russia appear increasingly unlikely more than 10 months into the war. While infantry assaults by the Russian military and the Wagner Group increased in frequency in mid-December, these operations were poorly supported. "Russian offensive operations in the area are now being conducted at only platoon or section level." A Ukrainian soldier said, "They were coming like cockroaches, we had to bring over the ammo a few times." 

Why As VCs and Startups End Tough 2022, 2023 Isn't Looking Much Better

2022 was a brutal year for all investors, including those in venture capital. 

But 2023 is not looking great either. The perception is that the market has not yet bottomed, in part because insider rounds have kept startup valuations unreasonably high given the state of the markets and the economy. Many venture investors are holding back, both because they fear further declines, because the payouts to their investors are historically low and because they still have too much tied up in startups which may yet crater. As a result, this could be another tough year, at least for the first quarter. JL 

Heather Somerville reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Startups had a dismal year by every measurement in 2022, from plummeting investment to scarce public listings, and data point to a 2023 that could be more difficult. Venture-capital investment in U.S. startups in 2022 fell by a third from 2021. Startup funding declined sequentially each quarter. Once-hot tech sectors have fallen out of favor. The market for U.S. initial public offerings had its worst year since 1990. (And) the long-term partners who provide the funding for venture-capital are to receive less in payouts on their investments in 2022 than in any year (since) 2006. Startup valuations, down 43% from a year ago, remain higher than public tech-stock due to insider rounds.

Prolonged Ukraine War Reveals Russian Air Force's Fragility

Russia had fewer than 100 fully trained, experienced pilots at the time of its Ukraine invasion. 

Since then, it has lost many and it is further degrading quality by keeping them at the front rather than having some teach new pilots. Its ground crews also lack competence - and its habit of stacking munitions near planes is giving Ukraine's long range artillery great targets. JL 

Michael Peck reports in Business Insider:

The Russian air force lacks trained pilots and has made poor use of the few good pilots it has. "The VKS entered the conflict with fewer than 100 fully trained pilots." It is normal for experienced pilots to rotate from frontline duties to training units, where they can pass expertise to rookies. One reason Nazi Germany lost was because a desperate Luftwaffe committed instructors to combat, which led to a progressive decline in pilot quality. Russia, too, is committing experienced pilots to combat. The Ukrainian military has noted a rise in very young and very old pilots in the VKS. Reports also point to issues with ground crew experience and stacking munitions next to aircraft parked at Russian air bases.

Wagner Leader Admits "Every Bakhmut House Is A Fortress" As Attack Stalls

A rare admission from Wagner Group's leader that things are not going well for them in Bakhmut. JL

Peter Beaumont and Pjotr Sauer report in The Guardian:

The head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group said his fighters have sometimes spent weeks attempting to capture a single house in Bakhmut, in the latest evidence of how the Kremlin’s efforts there have stalled. Prigozhin – a key ally of Putin – was filmed visiting a basement near the eastern front filled with the bodies of his fighters, many of them convicts, who had been killed during the bitter fighting for the city. "Sometimes they fight for weeks over one house. And behind this house, there is a new line of defense."

How Ukraine Digitized Its Military By Innovating On A Shoestring Budget

Silicon Valley - let alone the Pentagon - can learn from what Ukraine has achieved by encouraging its soldiers' adapting, innovating and creating. JL  

Sam Schechner and Daniel Michaels report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine has achieved a cut-price version of what the Pentagon has spent decades and billions to accomplish: digitally networked fighters, intelligence and weapons built around off-the-shelf equipment. Kyiv’s improvised web of drones, fighters and weapons, linked through satellites and custom software, is giving soldiers intelligence, coordination and accuracy that allows outnumbered, outgunned forces to run circles around Russia's massive but lumbering armies. Ukrainian soldiers use 3-D printers to build plastic harnesses on commercial drones to arm with grenades; homemade drone-jammers; remote-control electric vehicles and machine guns. "The lesson is, you've got to innovate."

As Russian Fury Mounts Over Ukraine Rocket Attacks, Lawmakers Demand Criminal Charges Against Its Own Military

Members of the Russian Duma have become uncharacteristically vocal about demanding that someone be held accountable for the spate of recent attacks on Russian troops in Ukraine which have resulted in hundreds of deaths and the loss of quantities of ammunition. 

The question now is to what degree this further erodes faith in Putin's leadership, even though he is likely to identify scapegoats to keep blame from himself. JL

Kyiv Post reports:

Anger is mounting in Russia over a devastating Ukrainian attack on barracks which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of newly-mobilised Russian troops. Russian lawmakers have called for an investigation, with one calling for criminal charges to be brought against whoever "allowed the concentration of military personnel in an unprotected building. Punish (them) for criminal stupidity, losses of personnel, for treason to the homeland."

Continuing Ukrainian Air Strikes Expose Russian Intel, Air Defense Weakness

Just as Ukraine has exposed Russia's weakness in infantry, armor and artillery, so the latest long range attacks on rear echelon Russian bases have revealed that its once vaunted intelligence and air defense systems are also inadequate. JL 

Matthew Bigg and colleagues report in the New York Times:

In one of their deadliest attacks yet on Russian forces, Ukrainians used American-made rockets to kill dozens - perhaps hundreds - of Moscow’s troops in a New Year’s Day strike behind the lines. Russian officials said the debacle was caused by the military's repeated mistakes, like garrisoning troops in a dense concentration within range of Ukrainian artillery, placing them in the same building as an ammunition depot, and allowing them to use cellphones. “Neither intelligence nor counterintelligence or air defense worked properly.”

Ukraine Rockets Destroy 2 Weeks of Russian Ammo At Svatove, Also Hit Crimea

Retired US Army General Ben Hodges says, "The Russian army is not a learning organization." 

Successive Ukrainian Himars, missile and drone attacks in the past few days on rear area ammunition storage, headquarters and troop barracks would appear to support that assertion. JL

Daily Kos reports:

Just a day after destroying an ammo dump in Donetsk stored in the same school building as hundreds of Russian soldiers, Ukraine has destroyed a huge Russian ammo dump near Svatove. The dump has been estimated to be stocked for two weeks. The big question is why are the Russians storing so much ammo in one place rather than having smaller amounts in multiple locations. DefMon asks who would locate such a huge ammo dump within HIMARS range.

As Ukraine Gains At Bakhmut, Wagner and Russian Army Hostilities Become Open

Evidence of Ukraine's success in defending Bakhmut is growing but causing heightened hostility between the Russian army and Wagner Group mercenaries as each works to deflect blame for what could be another humiliating Russian failure. JL 

Alexei Aleksandrov and Reid Standish report in RFE/RL:

Vagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin took aim at Russia’s military leadership and the stalling war effort in Ukraine after an expletive-filled video surfaced of Vagner mercenaries near Bakhmut cursing out Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the General Staff, complaining about a lack of ammunition. The latest outburst from Prigozhin stems from ongoing frustration with the battle for Bakhmut, where Putin has placed a personal emphasis amid heavy losses by Russian forces. "(At) Bakhmut there is no success We see that here.”

Another Official Russian Collaborator In Ukraine Killed By Car Bomb

The risk of being a Russian collaborator is growing as Russia's invasion falters and it is popularly perceived as the losing side. JL 

Guy McCardle reports in Sofrep:

Andrei Shtepa’s life was ended by a car bomb. Shtepa, nicknamed “Schnir,” was the Russian-appointed government official of Lyubymivka and Vasylivka in the Kakhovka district. The locals referred to Shtepa as a “Gauleiter,” which was the term for a Nazi provincial governor under Adolf Hitler. He had previously sought positions in local government but was never elected. Moscow appointed him to a leadership position in June of this year. He burned alive in the car with another man who was the vehicle’s driver and personal security. 

Why NATO Bradley Fighting Vehicles Provide Big Benefit To Ukraine

The Bradley cannot only protect Ukrainian infantry, it can take out a Russian T-72 tank on its own. And NATO has enough of them to meet Ukraine's stated needs. JL

Defence Express reports:

The Bradley is the main infantry fighting vehicle of the US Army. The fire control system received auto-tracking of targets, automatic errors calculation, in particular for preemption. The armament of the Bradley is a 25-mm M242 automatic cannon and two TOW ATGMs. 4,000 Bradleys are in service with the US army, 2,800 in storage. 25% completely cover the declared need of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 700 IFVs.

The Way Ukraine Can Win Its War With Russia In 2023

While many observers seem impatient for another stirring set of Ukrainian advances like those around Kharkiv and Kherson this past fall, it is important to remember that they were preceded. for months, by a methodical destruction of Russian troop strength and logistics. 

The Ukrainians appear to be pursuing a similar strategy again, as yesterday's Himars attack on a Russian barracks suggests. Once Ukraine has sufficiently weakened Russian forces they will again advance in strength, but the goal is not just liberating villages or regions, it is destroying the Russian army so that it cannot attack again. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack, image Clodagh Kilcoyne, Reuters:

Going into 2023, the Ukrainians have some idea of where they want to fight, but the biggest calculation they will make is how much of Putin’s 2nd Army (and maybe 3rd if another conscription comes) needs to be destroyed before they can liberate their territory. The first step of Ukrainian victory will be the continuation of this great wasting - with the Russians speeding up the process of their own destruction. Ukraine's goal wont be specific towns, (but) the destruction of Putin’s army. They will rely mostly on ranged weapons to methodically dismantle the Russian forces facing them. Once they feel they have done that sufficiently, they will then press forward.

Ukraine Kills Hundreds of Russian Soldiers In Himars Attack on Donetsk Barracks

After enduring days and nights of Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian targets over Christmas and New Years, Ukraine retaliated with a Himars rocket strike on a vocational school in Russian-occupied Donetsk being used as a Russian army barracks. 

As many as 400 Russian soldiers were killed and 300 wounded. The building was also being used to store ammunition and fighting vehicles, which were destroyed. JL 

Elsa Maishman and Sam Hancock report in the BBC:

400 Russian soldiers have died in a missile attack on the occupied Donetsk region. The attack hit a building in the city of Makiivka, where Russian forces were stationed. Ukrainian forces fired six rockets using the US-made Himars rocket system at a building housing Russian troops. They struck two minutes after midnight on New Year's Day. The victims were mainly recent conscripts, rather than those who chose to fight. Ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse.

How Leaders Are Adapting To Changing Workplace Commitment Attitudes

The 21st century version of "how ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they've seen Paree" is becoming, "how ya gonna keep in the office till 7 on weekdays and asking them to come in on weekends after two years of pandemic working from home showed them what they were missing in life." 

Successful leaders recognize that traditional notions of workplace commitment have changed, that their employees have (lots) of options and that leadership requires flexibility and adaptability if they hope not to lose their best staff. The latest report on hiring just before the holidays showed that tech workers facing layoffs - thought by some to be the beginning of their comeuppance - were having no trouble finding new jobs, usually within weeks or even days. The reality of every business being a tech business now means that organizations have to embrace that change both because there is no alternative and because it seems to be working quite well. JL  

Lindsay Ellis and Ray Smith report in the Wall Street Journal:

There’s a realization that the way Americans want to work has changed. Business leaders say they can’t implore staff to get more “hardcore,” as Elon Musk did at Twitter. After he told workers there that “only exceptional performance will constitute a passing grade,”  hundreds opted to take Mr. Musk on his severance offer of three months’ salary. White-collar workers say the past three years have reordered their priorities and showed what they were missing when they spent so much time at the office. Bosses recognize increased flexibility and stronger boundaries bring benefits, including improved staff retention (and) is prompting a shift in practices, from vacation policies to new-hire training.

How Ukrainian Forces Keep Taking Out Russia's Best Tanks

Despite the addition of more reactive armor (which deflects the power of an attacking munition's blast - and other upgrades, Ukrainian forces continue to destroy a surprising number of modern or updated Russian tanks.

The fundamental problem appears to be that the basic design of Russian tanks continues to mandate munitions storage in areas where it can ignite if the tank is hit and sparks fly. JL

Jack Buckby reports in 19fortyfive:

Ukrainian forces continue to use Western-supplied weapons to take out Russian tanks, worsening Moscow’s severe shortage of modern armored vehicles. Tanks explode dramatically as they are hit by Ukrainian ammunition.After the initial explosions, the tanks continue to smolder, suggesting that the ammunition within the vehicles may have also ignited upon impact.

The War In Ukaine Shows Why Soldiers Have To Put Their Mobile Phones Away

Contrary to civilian life, convenience is far less important than electronic security in a wired battlefield. JL 

Christopher Woody reports in Business Insider:

Phones have been a vulnerability for Russia since its military attacked Ukraine. Ukrainians and foreign governments have eavesdropped on Russian troops using unsecured phones. Ukrainians have also tracked Russian generals making unsecured calls and used the information to launch attacks. Your electronics are giving away more information about you than you think. The risk posed by electronic emissions is salient, as those emissions could allow rivals to track them, listen to their communications, or attack them. "Every time you press a button, you're emitting."

Ten Crucial Moments From Ukraine's Stunning Defense of Its Homeland

There have been so many that it is hard to pick merely ten. From the initial defeat of elite Russian troops around Kyiv to the liberation of Kherson, Ukraine has demonstrated an historic resolve - and capability - to defeat a larger, better armed foe. 

Here's to helping them continue to do so in the coming year. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos, image AFP:

10 wasn’t nearly enough. Where are the weeks of fighting in Severodonetsk? Where’s the long fight at Azovstal? The whole protracted early act around Kharkiv where every bridge on the Siverskyi Donetsk seemed like a goal just out of reach? Where’s the bombing of the bridge? You know, the critical bridge. Not that bridge, the other critical bridge, the one that defined everything that was going to happen next. Where’s the sinking of the Moskva? These are the moments when something changed. Something shifted. Something broke. Something moved.

Ukraine Defeats Russian Drone Swarms. Again.

Russia attacked Ukraine with drones and missiles for three days in a row, including New Year's Eve.  

But the Ukrainians are getting better, which is to say more accurate, at shooting down such Russian attacks. And the New Year's Eve attacks seemed aimed primarily at civilian targets, not even power stations and other infrastructure, suggesting that the attacks are not having the hoped-for impact on Ukrainian operations or morale, so Russia is simply resorting to terror as its army continues to prove incapable of successfully attacking Ukrainian forces. 

Cassandra Vinograd and Richard Perez-Pina report in the New York Times:

For the second day in a row, Russia launched an aerial barrage at Ukraine on Friday, but the Ukrainian military said it had intercepted all of the attack. The latest assault used 16 Iranian-made drones overnight, all of which were shot down, the Ukrainian air force said — a rare shutout, coming a day after Russian forces fired 70 cruise missiles and a smaller number of drones, some of which reached their targets. Russia (then) rained missiles and drones on Ukraine’s capital and other cities in a deadly New Year’s Eve assault