Russia's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade Destroyed, Reconstituted 8 Times In Ukraine

Naval Infantry is the Russian term for Marines. The 155th Naval Infantry ceased to exist as an operational entity after a series of recent suicidal attacks on Ukrainian positions around Vuhledar in Donbas. 

But that was evidently only the latest of many actions in which the unit was so badly battered that it had to be reconstituted with new conscripts and weapons. Apparently that is preferable creating a new unit, which would require acknowledging it has been eliminated multiple due to poor leadership and tactics. JL

James Bickerton reports in Newsweek:

Russia's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has been "destroyed and reconstituted as many as eight times" since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine began. Russian efforts to seize Vuhledar, southwest of Donetsk, (caused) the Brigade to suffer (devastating) "combat losses resulting in no gains due to challenging terrain, lack of combat power, and failure to surprise Ukrainian forces." Earlier in the war, the Brigade, which is based out of the eastern city of Vladivostok as part of Russia's Pacific Fleet, was involved in the unsuccessful attempt to seize Kyiv. It was one of the Russian units accused of committing war crimes against civilians in the towns of Bucha, Irpin, and Gostomel.

How Ukraine's Remote Anti-Armor Mines (RAAM) Have Devastated Russian Tanks

Remote anti-armor mines are fired from a cannon in an artillery shell as far as 17 kilometers. They scatter in the expected path of oncoming enemy tanks but only detonate when something heavy rolls over them or comes near them. 

The ability to shoot them out so far has made them a devastating Ukrainian weapon against more numerous but less competent Russian tanks forces. JL 

The Kyiv Post reports:

The Russian army has suffered heavy losses in tanks and armored vehicles from Ukraine-fired “Remote Anti-Armour Mine systems (RAAM),” an artillery shell which scatters anti-armor mines in the path of enemy tanks fighting vehicles.  The RAAM shell is designed to fly out to up to 17.6 kilometers’ max range and then scatter anti-armor mines, rather than exploding. The shell contains nine mines, the size of a cheesecake, that once scattered land and arm themselves. Containing an electromagnetic sensor, the 2.3 kg. mine detonates if something rolls over it or if a large metal object - like a tank - comes in close proximity. 

Why the Ukrainian High Command Believes the Bakhmut Front Is "Stabilizing"

The Russians know a Ukrainian counteroffensive with fresh troops and new, better NATO weapons is coming and since their winter assault failed, may be moving into a more defensive stance to try and preserve as much captured territory as possible. JL 

Kathryn Armstrong reports in the BBC:

The battle for Bakhmut, the Ukrainian city which Russia has spent months trying to capture, is "stabilising", says Ukraine's commander-in-chief. The UK's Ministry of Defence said on Saturday that Russia's assault on Bakhmut had "largely stalled", citing "extreme attrition" of the Russian force as a cause, and added that Russia had probably shifted its operational focus to the south and north of Bakhmut. Such moves suggest a "return to a more defensive operational design" after Russia failed to achieve significant results from its attempts to conduct a general offensive since January.

Google and Microsoft AI Chatbots Cite Each Other, Spreading Misinformation

The problem is that AI chatbots - including ChatGPT and Google Bard - are, so far, unable distinguish between reliable, authoritative sources and spurious or deliberate disinformation. 

Given the human propensity to rely on information gleaned from the web as "true," this may launch further assaults on scientifically verifiable or otherwise trustworthy sources by those intent on benefiting from misinformation. JL

James Vincent reports in The Verge:

We have an early sign we’re stumbling into a massive game of AI misinformation telephone, in which chatbots are unable to gauge reliable news sources, misread stories about themselves, and misreport on their own capabilities. In this case, the whole thing started because of a single joke comment on Hacker News. Imagine what you could do if you wanted these systems to fail. Given the inability of AI language models to reliably sort fact from fiction, their launch online threatens to unleash a rotten trail of misinformation and mistrust across the web, impossible to map completely or debunk. All because Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI decided that market share is more important than safety.

Ukrainians Tank Crews Excited By Superior NATO Weapons To Fight Russians

Ukrainian tank crews using Soviet-era equipment have outfought the Russian troops using the same weapons. 

So they are excited by the prospect of NATO tanks with better armor, optics, range and accuracy which, they believe, with their superior training, leadership and morale, will enable them to defeat the Russians. JL 

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

In a tough war of attrition, the Ukrainian units that have been battling to hold the city of Bakhmut from a monthslong Russian offensive are hoping Western tanks will give them the upper hand against the Russians, who have a numerical advantage in equipment and personnel. “We realize that while our colleagues are training on new equipment, we have to hold.” The tank unit spends most days lying in wait to ambush Russian troop in direct fire fights. “It’s the best job. They feed you, dress you, give you an expensive tank, fuel it, give you ammunition. And they don’t charge you money for that. What’s not to like?”

As Russia's Bakhmut Attacks Stall, Ukraine Sees Opening For Spring Offensive

Military analysts report that Russian attacks around Bakhmut are diminishing and that the Russians are attempting to launch attacks elsewhere to weaken Ukraine's Bakhmut defenders by drawing Ukrainian forces to other locales. 

So far, that does not seem to be working - and Ukrainian commanders are upbeat about an anticipated counteroffensive later this spring. JL

Marcus Walker reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine said Russia’s offensive against Bakhmut was beginning to run out of steam, Russia’s heavy losses were paving the way for Ukraine to launch its own offensives this spring. Ukrainian commanders say the battle for the city is weakening some of Russia’s most potent forces, including Wagner, and that Russian casualties far outweigh those of Bakhmut’s defenders. Ukraine’s defenders have forced Russian troops to retreat from significant parts of the country’s north, northeast and south. Russian forces, led by the Wagner Group, have been trying to take Bakhmut since last July.

Russian Army Hindered Because All Experienced Trainers Deployed To Ukraine

There's no one left to train new Russian recruits because the Russian army in Ukraine is so short staffed that all experienced trainers have been deployed to the front lines. 

Their knowledge and experience may some day be useful - if they survive. JL 

VOA News reports:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has “severely dislocated the Russian military’s training system – instructors have largely been deployed in Ukraine.” Russia has “ redeployed at least 1,000 troops who had been training at the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in south-western Belarus.” Russia has likely not dismantled the tented training camp, the British intelligence update said, suggesting that Russia “is considering continuing the training programme” under the “much less-experienced Belarusian army.”

Ukraine's 24th Brigade Defends Some Donbas Positions Unchanged Since 2014

Though Bakhmut and Avdiivka understandably receive most of the attention, Ukrainian troops elsewhere along the line are still holding off the Russians, sometimes in positions unchanged since the first invasion nine years ago. 

All are awaiting the counteroffensive they hope will end this war. JL 

Alex Horton and Anastasia Galouchka report in the Washington Post:

Ukraine’s 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade's position, outside the town of Niu-York in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, is among a string of machine gun nests and observation posts that form a front-line that has more or less stayed the same since 2014 when Russian forces and their separatist proxies first fomented war in Donbas and began seizing territory. Russian positions are about 400 to 500 meters away, well within machine gun and sniper range. The region remains an important buffer to keep Russian forces, currently split, from combining along the front.

Eight Months Later, Bakhmut and Avdiivka Hold Amid Thousands of Russian Bodies

The Ukrainian strategy of stubborn, costly resistance at Bakhmut and Avdiivka appears to be wearing the Russians down as much as possible to render them incapable of defending of other parts of Ukraine where its forces may then counterattack. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Russia has no second army. It is all in. Its forces are fully engaged, and both the bulk and the best of those forces are in a small area from Avdiivka to Bakhmut. Eight months later, Russia has not taken either Bakhmut or Avdiivka. In fact, the most remarkable thing about Bakhmut these days may be how little we’re talking about Bakhmut. There’s not just one road bringing supplies and reserves in and out of Bakhmut right now, there are several. Russian forces aren’t just moving slowly in their efforts to occupy the remainder of the city—they have stopped. Ukraine are seeking a decisive battle: hit them there, take them out - or - a feint to distract from the real direction of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine Hits Crimea With Both Naval and Aerial Drone Attacks

The purpose of the attacks is to degrade Russian logistical capabilities, divert military resources from the front to defense of vulnerable rear areas and to create psychological uncertainty for the occupiers stationed there. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

Although it’s 140 miles from the front lines, the city of Sevastopol on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula came under another Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and aerial drone attack. This is the second USV and aerial drone combined attack on Sevastopol in six months. These drones (can) autonomously navigate to their target area and then be remotely controlled within line-of-sight in the target's vicinity. Wednesday's attack on Sevastopol was the latest in a long series of Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula. "These attacks make Crimea untenable for the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Sevastopol), the Russian Air Force (Saki), Russian missile and drone launchers and logistics (Dzankoy).”

Why Attacks On Crimean Targets Help Prepare Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Crimea is Russia's primary logistical hub for the defense of the southern Ukrainian lands it occupies. The south is also where Ukraine's next counteroffensive is most likely to be targeted. 

If Ukraine can eliminate - or reduce - Russian capacity to supply and support its troops in southern Ukraine, the counteroffensive has a greater likelihood of success. JL 

Marc Santora reports in the New York Times:

Ukraine set the stage for its advance by striking deep behind Russian lines, including a vital logistical hub in occupied Crimea. To succeed in retaking the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv has to disrupt the flow of weapons and supplies from Crimea. Ukraine is replicating a pattern that worked in the fall, when it reclaimed thousands of miles by striking deep behind Russian lines at command centers, ammunition depots and supply lines. 50 miles south of Ukraine, home to the main rail lines from Russia across the Kerch Strait into Crimea and to Kherson, disrupting rail and road links in Dzhankoi would paralyze supplies (to the army) as well as to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

How Data Reveal Remote/Hybrid Schedules Led To Increase In Marriage, Fertility

Is office work a romantic buzz-kill?

During the pandemic, US fertility rebounded for the first time in decades - and so did marriage. Women on remote or hybrid schedules were more likely to marry and to have more children than their office-bound colleagues. The implication is that couples - or individuals - with more time and less stress were better able to manage work and family, primarily to the benefit of the family. And this may be contributing to employee resistance to return to office entreaties from employers. JL

Derek Thompson reports in The Atlantic:

Maybe remote work is making it easier for couples to become parents and for parents to have more children. In the past half century, Americans have had fewer babies with almost every passing decade; in 2020, the U.S. reported the lowest official fertility rate on record. But last year, statisticians observed a surprising baby bump. Survey data concluded female remote workers were more likely to have a baby than office workers, especially if they were richer, older, and more educated. (And) remote workers were more likely to marry in the next year than nonremote counterparts. “Remote work helps balance the competing demands of work and family.”

After Months Of Attacks In Southern Donbas, the Russians Have Gained 10 Yards

Indicative of how fruitless and wasteful Russian tactics have been despite the arrival of 300,000 fresh troops last fall. JL 

Quentin Sommerville reports in the BBC:

In February, the Russians tried to break through the front line near Velyka Novosilka, a bold move that would have put the rest of unoccupied Donetsk at risk. The advance ended in catastrophe, with hundreds of Russians dead, dozens of their tanks lost, and an armoured brigade all but annihilated. In the zero line - the final trench - Russian troops are only 700m away. Despite months of vicious Russian attacks, the Ist Separate Tank Brigade has lost less than 10m of territory. Russian forces have sustained heavy losses. The determination to resist is the enduring weapon in Ukraine's arsenal

The Reason Has Become Bolder In Its Attacks On Russian Soil

Ukraine appears to believe that Russia's military capabilities have become constrained and that Ukraine's status as the victim in this conflict has been repeatedly confirmed. 

As a result, Ukraine has become bolder in its attacks on Russian military and war-related infrastructure have increased and are likely to continue to do so. JL 

Sofrep reports:

Last week, Ukraine announced a drone strike had been employed to demolish an unmanned lookout tower in Russia's Bryansk region, a rarity of an openly admitted cross-border attack demonstrating Kyiv’s readiness to target Russia directly. Throughout the year-long conflict, detonations and blazes have been noted at Russian fuel depots, rail stations, and other military objectives. Ukraine has opted for calculated obscurity about such assaults, seldom affirming responsibility. Kyiv’s broadened campaign of retaliation signals a willingness to utilize any means to counter Russia.

How Chat GPT Has Eclipsed Voice Assistants Like Siri and Alexa

Technology eats its own. Again. ChatGPT and its large language model competitors are in the process of rendering once-amazing voice assistants obsolete. 

The reason is the software powering generative AI is far more powerful than that of the voice models, which are limited by the way they have been programmed. If the answer the user seeks is not in their code, they are incapable of answering. JL 

Baba Tamim reports in Interesting Engineering, image Wesley Goatley:

ChatGPT-type AI chatbots threaten to render voice assistant technology obsolete with its amazing capabilities. It might take a year to incorporate more sophisticated functions like ChatGPT into Siri. Because of its antiquated, complex programming, even updating Siri's fundamental functionality may take weeks. "If a user asks the virtual assistant to do something that is not in its code, the bot simply says it can't help." A co-creator of Siri told the Financial Times that ChatGPT makes existing voice assistants "look stupid."

Back To the Future: Russia Now Sending WWII- Era Tanks To Ukraine

Given the choice between sending them to a museum and sending them to Ukraine, the Russian army fighting for its life in Ukraine appears to have 'won.' 

Fun fact: to save space, T-54 shells are "wet stored" inside fuel tanks, which, given the Russian tank propensity to explode when hit should make for even more spectacular results than usual. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

At the outset of the fight, most tanks sent into Ukraine were variants of the T-72. (But) out of 1,871 documented losses, 1,025 were T-72s. The second largest group of tanks lost by Russia are more modern T-80s. T-64 tanks, first rolled out in 1963, turned up just two weeks into the war. Now Russia is trying to fill the gap—with T-54 tanks that started rolling off the lines in 1946. To make room for extra shells, the T-54 stores them in “wet tanks” inside the fuel tank. And to make room for extra fuel, some T-54s have fuel tanks right behind the front armor - that can obliterated by any modern shell. Also, the floor of the tank is just 20mm thick so welcome to the wonderful world of mines.

Ukrainian Soldiers In US Master Patriot Missile System Much Faster Than Expected

Threat concentrates the mind. Ukrainian soldiers in the US have mastered Patriot missile systems much faster than expected. 

It normally takes US soldiers up to a year to  absorb all of the sophisticated system's intricacies but the Ukrainians have done so in a couple of months. They are completing training and will return to Ukraine soon. JL 

Lara Seligman reports in Politico:

The Patriot is a highly complex system to operate, and typically takes U.S. soldiers up to a year to learn. But after just a few weeks, the Ukrainians were already able to independently set up and operate the system against a simulated threat in under 45 minutes, which is the U.S. Army’s standard. The Ukrainians, experienced air defenders when they arrived in January, were handpicked by Kyiv to complete the instruction, mastered the American system much faster than expected. "The Ukrainian soldiers are impressive, and a quick study. (Their) drive and dedication made training easy. They are self-sustaining.”

Zelensky Visits Bakhmut, Suggesting Ukraine Strength There Improving

After Putin's alleged trip to Mariupol - a city captured by the Russians almost a year ago that is at least 50 miles behind the front - and at which he met few people and may have actually sent a body double - Zelensky visited Bakhmut again, the most ferocious battlefield of the war. 

He would not have done so if the Ukrainians did not believe they now have the upper hand there and that it was relatively safe for him to do so, suggesting the Russian threat has diminished. JL 

Matthew Luxmoore and Ievgenia Sivorka report in the Wall Street Journal:

Bakhmut is a key element in Ukrainian efforts to weaken Russia’s army ahead of a critical Ukrainian offensive using fresh, Western-trained troops and modern equipment provided by the U.S. and its allies.  “Our motivation is to defend our land, but I don’t see what theirs is. It’s the first time I’ve seen fields covered with the bodies of dead Russians. It’s like some apocalyptic movie. Our goal is to wear them out, waste them away and destroy them.”

Why Russia's 300,000 Additional Army Conscripts Didnt Help Them Much

Quality of Ukrainian leadership, logistics, training and tactics defeated raw Russian quantity. JL 

Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:

Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops called up to fight in Ukraine have been unable to turn Moscow's new offensive into a battlefield success, war experts said in a new analysis. These soldiers were sent into battle poorly equipped and with limited training. Throwing more soldiers into the fight most likely won't help. "If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year. Ukraine is well positioned to regain the initiative."

How Ukraine's New Depleted Uranium Ammo Destroy Russian Tanks

Depleted uranium ammunition is 70% denser than other types and thus has great penetrating and destructive power. 

They have been standard issue for many NATO forces for decades and  are considered relatively safe (they are, after all, being used to fight a war...) JL 

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

The U.K. will provide Ukraine with depleted uranium armor-piercing rounds for donated Challenger 2 main battle tanks. The depleted uranium rounds are "highly effective in defeating modern tanks and armoured vehicles." NATO have "used depleted uranium in its armor-piercing shells for decades" and it is a "standard component." The heavy metal rounds are 70% more dense than lead and self-sharpen on impact with armor. They also allow forces to engage enemies at greater distances. The International Atomic Energy Agency said depleted uranium is "considerably less radioactive than natural uranium."

How Ukrainian "Punch Mouth" Drone Units Take the Fight To the Russians

Ukraine's official Free Air drone pilot school has trained over 5,000 troops in how to use drones in front line combat. 

While dropping bombs on the enemy captures a lot of attention, their primary role is identifying targets for artillery and armor attacks. Drone warfare is one element in which Ukraine has had an advantage over Russia and they are pouring resources into it to optimize their impact. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

As one domain in which it could carve out an advantage, drone warfare became a key element of Kyiv's tactical playbook. Thousands of Ukrainian troops volunteered to learn how to operate commercial drones and provide critical intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, fires adjustment and strike capabilities. Ukraine's Free Air school has taught 5,000 to become drone pilots. As a result of the training, no Free Air drone pilots have been killed in action. The biggest challenge “was to operate drones in hard electronic warfare conditions." 60 specialized UAV 'punch mouth' units receive drones, ammunition, Starlink and other equipment to defeat the enemy in hot spots."

Ukraine's Spring Offensive: The Case For the Obvious Southern Thrust

The southern offensive option is the one most experts expect because strategically it makes the most sense: if the Ukrainians prevail there, it isolates and even threatens Crimea while putting an end to the Russian claims of a unified and Russified southern Ukraine. By contrast, the Donbas is now a wasteland of rubble of little economic use to either side - and even if recaptured, leaves the more socio-economically important south in Russian hands. 

The Russians have had six months to fortify the southern terrain, but the weapons provided to Ukraine by NATO are designed to prevail in that environment. Winning generals from Alexander the Great to the present day recognize that defeating an enemy where he believes he is strongest may produce the fastest ultimate victory. JL

RO 37 reports in Daily Kos:

The combat power Ukraine has in reserve for the summer offensive (is) substantial. The question is where is this new force headed?  There are two options: a Northern offensive towards Svatove and Starobilsk (Luhansk), or a Southern offensive towards Melitopol and Crimea (Zaporizhzhia). Southern Ukraine consists of flat farmland with visibility that extends to the horizon. Zaporizhzhia Oblast represents ideal tank terrain for Western tanks.  The main advantage the Leopard 2s and Challenger 2s have over a T72B is the ability to outrange. If the AFU were to pick ONE place where Ukraine’ new western tank brigades (can) destroy numerically superior Russian armored units, it’s hard to pick a better place.

As the Bakhmut Endgame Creeps Closer, What Comes Next?

Despite Putin's attempts to ape his hero Joseph Stalin's WII strategy, claiming that patience - and millions of Russian lives - will produce ultimate victory, the Russian army's impatience in continuing to attack Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Avdiivka and other Donbas locales before they were equipped and ready to do so, demonstrate that time is not on Russia's side. 

Putin was hoping to show the world that he could stop the Ukrainians, reverse the war's momentum and take by negotiation and diplomatic pressure what his army was unable to capture and hold. He has lost his own bet with himself that NATO would falter and that ceaseless attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure would bring it to its knees. Neither has happened. And now, having held the Russians off - again - despite 300,000 new conscripts, Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive which could decide the end of the war - and Putin's own fate. JL

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

The 2023 Russian eastern offensive is devolving into a disaggregated series of tactical actions without a unified approach. That is neither a strategy nor a plan. And it is another example of Russia’s dysfunctional warfare. If the Russian do capture Bakhmut, they are seizing rubble. (And they) have wasted military units, soldiers and resources that would have been valuable to them once the Ukrainians launch their offensives later in the Spring. This campaign shows that Putin is impatient for success. And with western nations constantly surprising Russia with the level of their strategic patience and support for Ukraine, there is little to support Putin's view that time is on his side.

The Reason the Generative AI Venture Investment Frenzy Is Escalating

The belief is that these startups may be the next trillion dollar opportunities. 

We've heard that breathless hype before: the metaverse, VR and AR, etc. But at some point, for one of these technologies it will be true - and this could be it. JL 

Erin Griffith and Cade Metz report in the New York Times:

Over the past few months, a gold rush into start-ups working on “generative” AI has escalated into a deal-making mania. A.I. start-up valuations are soaring beyond that of 2021’s “everything bubble,” with investors trawling Google, Meta and OpenAI for A.I. experts who may have start their own company. That’s because of the scarcity of A.I. companies and the potential of the technology. ChatGPT startups require a lot of computing power. (Such) start-ups need at least $500 million to develop their own model. At Y Combinator, 50 of the 218 companies in the current program are working on generative A.I. “These companies are the next trillion-dollar opportunities in software.”

Why the US Is Speeding Up Abrams Tank Deliveries To Ukraine

The US has decided to send an older version of its state of the art Abrams tank. This will speed delivery and make it easier for the Ukrainians to train on and maintain the vehicles. 

At the same time, demand for the tanks is so robust - including large orders from Poland and Australia - that manufacturer is adding another shift and could add more capacity. JL 

Lolita Baldor reports in the Associated Press:

The Pentagon is speeding up its delivery of Abrams tanks to Ukraine, opting to send a refurbished older model that can be ready faster, with the aim of getting the 70-ton battle powerhouses to the war zone in eight to 10 months. The original plan was to send Ukraine 31 of the newer M1A2 Abrams, which could have taken a year or two to build and ship. The older M1A1could be there before the end of the year. (It) will be easier for Ukrainian forces to learn to use and maintain as they fight Russia’s invasion. General Dynamics are building 15-20 armored vehicles per month. They can easily boost that to 33 a month and could add another shift of workers and build even more if needed.

Wagner POWs In Ukrainian Prisons Confirm Massive Losses

Drug or alchohol addicted, uneducated, serving multiple prison sentences - and sent to the front at Bakhmut. 

Wagner POWs in Ukrainian custody tend to conform to stereotype, including being survivors of units in which 70% to 90% of their comrades were killed or wounded. JL 

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

All of the fighters had been criminals serving prison sentences before joining Wagner with promises they would return to civilian society after serving. Most had incomplete high school educations, came from broken homes or had served multiple prison sentences. Alcohol or narcotics figured in why they had been imprisoned. All had been captured in and around Bakhmut in January 2023. Most said they were taken prisoner after having been sent into forward positions in which, in a few hours, 70-90% of their unit were killed or wounded. Two had been the sole survivors.

Ukraine Drone Attack Destroys Russian Ballistic Missiles On Train In Crimea

The implication is that Crimea is increasingly unsafe as a Russian haven and that as Ukraine regains more territory in the south of the country, Crimean targets will become ever more vulnerable to attack. JL 

Dan Sabbagh and Graham Russell report in The Guardian:

Russian cruise missiles of the type used by its Black Sea navy to target Ukraine have been destroyed in an explosion in the Crimean logistics hub of Dzhankoi. The strike appeared to have come from a drone, with a video of the explosion showing it was immediately preceded by a loudly buzzing engine. Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, has been the subject of attacks by Ukraine to demonstrate that the peninsula is not safe for Moscow’s military operations. “An explosion in Dzhankoi in temporarily occupied Crimea destroyed Russian Kalibr-KN cruise missiles as they were being transported by rail.”

The Recall of A Goldfish? The Serious Problem With GPT-4's Memory Capacity

There are workarounds and possibly longer term solutions. The problem is that they are currently aspirational rather than operational. 

But at present, they are limited to a context window of 4,000 words, which is a major constraint. JL

Jacob Stern reports in The Atlantic:

Large language models have a shortcoming: shoddy recall. These multibillion-dollar programs have the memory of a goldfish. GPT-4 still can’t retain information from one session to the next. Each time a model generates a response, it can take into account only a limited amount of text. ChatGPT has a context window of 4,000 words—long enough that the average person might never notice but short enough to render all sorts of complex tasks impossible. A machine’s memory capacity is a constraint. No computer that exists today could support a million-word context window. The problem is one of discernment. Large language models do not distinguish. They have no ability to distinguish garbage from gold.

Ukrainians Repel "Misguided" Suicidal Russian Attacks On Avdiivka

With their assault on Bakhmut stalled, Russian forces are attempting to pull Ukrainian troops away by opening attacks on Avdiivka. The Russian assaults appear to be a reprise of the suicidal Bakhmut attacks are deemed unlikely to succeed tactically or strategically. JL

Marc Santora reports in the New York Times, image Evgeniy Maloletka:

Russian forces have stepped up their assaults on the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, making limited and costly gains in a furious attempt to encircle the long-battered city. Avdiivka is turning into another Bakhmut by sending waves of lightly trained recruits on near-suicidal attacks of Ukrainian defensive lines. The Institute for the Study of War said that the Russian assault in the Avdiivka area “has led to major losses and is likely a misguided effort to pull Ukrainian forces away from other areas of the front.”

The Strategic Implications of Ukraine's Stubborn Defense of Bakhmut

Ukraine has no risk-free options: it has to assess the attritional calculus of defending Bakhmut versus husbanding resources for its spring offensive. 

It managed that trade-off superbly in the summer and fall of 2022. Now it is in the process of doing so again as it prepares for its spring 2023 offensive. So far, Russian losses suggest the Ukrainians have managed this situation well. But there will come a point where they may have to cut their losses - which will presumably be just before they are ready to attack. JL 

Rob Lee reports in Twitter:

Ukraine is prioritizing forming and training new units in three army corps for its spring offensive while trying to hold the front line. In order to make further gains, Ukraine went on the defense to buy time to train on NATO equipment. Ukraine has a better chance of achieving another significant breakthrough this spring than Russia does during its current offensive. Ukraine's best strategy is to pick battles where it can achieve a favorable ratio of attrition and expend fewer munitions, which weaken Russian forces' ability to defend without sapping Ukraine's offensive potential. It is ultimately a question of where Ukraine chooses to assume risk.

Ukraine's Storied 1st Tank Brigade Fights At Bakhmut As It Prepares To Attack

Ukraine's 1st Tank Brigade fought a desperate, now famous action in the opening days of the war. Surrounded and outnumbered, they beat back a larger, better equipped Russian force. 

A year later, they are still fighting. And their weapons are still outdated. But they are also preparing for the counteroffensive they believe will surpass in effect that earlier action. JL 

Igor Kossov reports in the Kyiv Independent:

The 1st Tank Brigade, arguably Ukraine’s most famous armored force. They won glory in during Russia’s first offensive in February 2022. Over six weeks, almost completely surrounded, the Brigade took on an armored Russian force many times its size and threw it back. Now, a year later, the brigade is spread along the front line from Bakhmut to further south, slapping down Russian thrusts and waiting for escalation or counterattack. Whether you’re an infantryman in a muddy trench fending off attacks, a tank commander fighting a stalemate against his geriatric machine’s maintenance needs or an artilleryman driven to wits’ end by his officers, units expect to participate in major offensive actions soon.

Improved Air Defenses Have Made Close Air Support Much Harder in Ukraine

In the constant battle of one-upmanship between offense and defense, greatly improved air defenses are currently in the ascendancy. 

Enhanced technological sophistication has given air defense systems an advantage over human-piloted aircraft. While this has prevented either Russia or Ukraine from establishing air dominance or from offering ground troops close air support, it may be that drone swarms and other autonomous weapons systems will provide such protection in the future. JL

Christopher Woody reports in Business Insider:

While Russian and Ukrainian aircraft are still active, each side's air-defense weapons - such as major Soviet-era anti-aircraft systems like the S-300 or shoulder-fired missiles like the US-made Stinger - have forced the other to make tactical adaptations, such as launching rocket attacks from longer ranges rather than sending aircraft to provide close air support. "Integrated air and missile defense have made aircraft worthless. They can't do close air support."

Europe To Provide Ukraine With One Million Artillery Shells

Despite the attention given drones and other high tech equipment, artillery has been the decisive weapon of this war so far. 

Artillery munition usage has been extraordinary, so European countries are now making specific preparations to guarantee that Ukraine has enough. This may well involved production in countries outside Europe as the global supply of gunpowder and production capacity is limited. Europe is also working to assure that it will have enough capacity for the future. JL 

Alberto Nardelli and Natalia Drozdiak report in Bloomberg:

The EU’s foreign and defense ministers are expected today to back spending €1 billion ($1.1 billion) from its European Peace Facility for EU countries to jointly buy ammunition, according to people familiar with the matter. They will also back spending another €1 billion from the same fund to reimburse what member states send from their own existing stockpiles of both modern and Soviet-era ammunition to Ukraine. The industry faces is sourcing enough gunpowder. Some countries are pushing to buy abroad when procuring if Europe doesn’t have enough production capacity to meet its target.

Ukrainian Forces Have Counterattacked Around Bakhmut, Regaining Some Territory

Ukraine appears to be solidifying its hold on Bakhmut, continuing to suck Russian troops into the fight, as it prepares for its expected spring counteroffensive. JL 

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine had retaken territory around the T0504 road southwest of Bakhmut to relieve pressure on supply lines into the city. With reports that Russian advances north of Bakhmut have ground to a halt, it looks like Bakhmut’s defense is on steadier ground at the moment. (But) I’m no longer predicting culmination. Russia needs its victory, and this is as close to one as they’ll get. I assume they’ll keep feeding their meat into the wood chipper until they don’t, and so far they haven’t.

Why Russia Is Struggling To Regain the Initiative Against Ukrainian Forces

It is increasingly apparent that Russia has squandered its 300,000 fresh recruits in suicidal attacks against better armed and led Ukrainian forces. 

The result is that Russia has failed to achieve its winter objectives and left itself weaker in the face of the renewed Ukrainian offenses to come. JL 

James Marson reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia (is) struggling to regain the initiative in the war as Moscow’s offensives were taking little ground and resulting in heavy losses, forcing it to call on a hodgepodge of reserves. "Their plans to occupy Bakhmut are failing." (And) Russian attacks elsewhere were foundering. The intensity of attacks on Vuhledar has decreased because of the huge losses Russia has suffered. “If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year.”

The Reason EQ Is So Important For Strong Leadership

Research is demonstrating that EQ is increasingly important to leadership career success. 

This is especially crucial in a talent war environment which places increasing emphasis on attracting and retaining skilled personnel who expect to be treated with respect. JL 

Rishin Patel reports in Fast Company:

Leaders who understand and (manage) their emotions make better strategic decisions. A characteristic of leaders with high EQ is that they work from intrinsic, not extrinsic, motivation. Intrinsic motivation is defined by self-respect (based on) impact on the world around them. Core components of EQ are self-awareness and self-regulation: the ability to recognize and manage emotions. Understanding emotions (means) you can schedule your time, allocate your energy, and prioritize specific business objectives in a more targeted way. Good listening benefits leaders as it enables better understanding (and better management) of workplace dynamics and an accurate view of market conditions. Research demonstrates that EQ was 400% more powerful than IQ in predicting fruitful careers.

Russian Advances Become Sub-Incremental - And China Knows It

China's President Xi announced plans to visit his fellow dictator Putin, even as Russia's forces have begun to falter - again - in their attempt to defeat Ukraine. 

Xi would undoubtedly like Putin to win because that would help advance his own designs on Asia. And he would be happy to provide more military aid to Russia but for two related problems: Russia is far weaker and incompetent than he or his minions imagined so they dont want to waste good weaponry on poor troops. That instinct is bolstered by the realization that united western allies have made it absolutely clear that they will trash the Chinese economy if he attempts to help Putin too obviously. So a flight to Moscow for a handshake and a smile is a lot cheaper than trainloads of tanks and artillery shells followed by an export ban from his biggest markets in the US and Europe. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

In the last week the most important battlefield development is that Russian incremental advances around Bakhmut and other towns seemed to shrink, (revealing) a lessening in Russia’s offensive capabilities. The Russians took a huge gamble in throwing so much at Bakhmut because they are not a great power. The losses they suffered were not sustainable, and last week they had to ramp down operations as (they) reached the unsustainable point. This is to Ukraine’s advantage. It gives the Ukrainians time to rest and resupply their forces. China would like to aid Putin. (But) the Chinese remain unsure what the Russians are capable of, and don’t want to pay the price for supplying military support for Russia.

Ukraine's New NATO Armored Carriers Charge Russian Positions At Bakhmut

The Ukrainians are using what they have been given as a stop gap as they wait for the more modern - and lethal - NATO weaponry to arrive and for their troops to be trained in combined arms warfare with them. 

In the interim, the Ukrainians are testing tactics and equipment against Russian and Wagner troops to hone their skills. JL 

Stetson Payne reports in The Drive:

Even as 100-year-old trench warfare tactics occur in the mud of Eastern Ukraine, the much-rumored offensive and liberation of Russian-occupied (territory) will depend, in part, on the fleet of advanced western armored fighting vehicles headed to Ukrainian units. Video from a Ukrainian unit shows M113s and Dutch-supplied YPR-765s (based on the M113) assault Wagner PMC positions. The aging M113s YPR-765s, hardly 'tip of the spear' combat vehicles compared to their more modern successors, are in the fight. Ukraine is making do with the best armor it has on hand, even if far from ideal.

The Selfish Tantrum Venture Capitalists Threw Over Silicon Valley Bank

Libertarian hypocrites decide government socialism isnt so bad when their own money is at risk. 

Notable tech and VC luminaries spent a weekend screeching about "an extinction level event" if they weren't made whole by the government of which they are otherwise so consistently contemptuous. But 'the little people' have some nerve suggesting that student loan forgiveness, housing cost assistance or affordable food bailouts are equally worthy...JL

Edward Ongweso reports in Slate:

Venture capitalists spent four days emoting, ginning up confusion and hysteria about the threat of a systemic risk if depositors didn’t get all their money back. They screamed economic collapse, that they were concerned about the workers, that the Federal Reserve was responsible, that-that-that … until they got what they wanted. (But) the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was emblematic of a startup ecosystem too risky and unmoored from reality to be left in charge of something as important as technological development. It was a glimpse into how reckless venture capitalists are in pursuit of something they want, so long as it doesn’t bear any risk to them.

Weaponizing Imagery: How Ukraine Has Won the Information War

The Ukrainians have done a masterful job of weaponizing imagery by using the faces and stories of ordinary citizens - including their improbable President - to tell their story of intelligent defiance overcoming brutal power. 

And the result has been fulsome NATO and bipartisan US support against Russian isolation, contributing to its invasion's failure. JL 

Stash Lucziw reports in the Kyiv Post:

Imagery has always been a powerful weapon in war. There are countless ways of weaponizing imagery. (And) everyone needs superheroes. From the first days of the war, Ukraine has shown images of heroic defiance: President Zelensky filming selfie videos as missiles fall, sneering that he "wants ammunition, not a ride;" a woman puts sunflower seeds in a Russian invader’s pocket, telling him she wants flowers to bloom once he’s buried; or, recently, a Prisoner Of War refuses to remove his Ukrainian flag patch and responds with “Slava Ukraini” before the Russians riddle him with bullets.

Why Russia's Winter Offensive Appears To Be Petering Out

Maps reveal that Russian forces continue to attack all along the front line - and have nothing to show for it. Many Ukrainian defensive positions were originally built in 2014. And bombardment levels have decreased markedly from two months ago.

While the Russians maintain they are degrading Ukrainian troop and equipment, the opposite appears to be more likely, given the astounding Russian casualty rates. The big question is how the Russians will perform when Ukraine goes on the offensive. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

For the last two months it’s been Russia making its big winter push and Ukraine on the defensive, and … nothing much has really changed. Yesterday, once again, the Ukrainian General Staff reported the Ukrainian military repelled more than 100 attempted Russian advances in a single day. Bakhmut (is) stable. On both north and south, Ukraine seems to be holding Russian forces from gaining access to the remaining roads into the city, and even pressing Russian troops back in some areas. (Other towns envy) the tourist dollars Vuhledar will enjoy when this is over and everyone goes there to see the Museum of Russian Pigheadedness.

The Reason Russia Sends Unarmed Soldiers To Attack Ukrainian Defenses

Stalin's Red Army did this during WWII: send unarmed soldiers to follow those in the first wave. Their task was to pick up the weapons of the fallen because they didnt have enough weapons for everyone. 

In Ukraine, some of the unarmed Russians are sent only to dig foxholes, some only to carry ammunition. But the concept is the same: the soldiers are expendable. Ukrainian troops find this strange and believe, from interviewing those few who are captured, that morale in the Russian army is low and that the Russians will collapse when a counteroffensive is launched. JL

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

"He's a digger. He's not carrying a weapon. They have good separation of tasks. Some only dig, some bring ammunition, some are shooters.” The Russian strategy is enforced by anti-retreat units. Russian soldiers are told that they will be shot or imprisoned if they retreat. “Our task from the beginning of the year: ‘Hold Bakhmut until the beginning of April.’ This amount of Russian losses hasn’t caused an explosion in Russian society yet, but it resonates a lot inside the Russian army. And the longer these crazy losses - unjustified in the opinion of lower- and middle-rank soldiers - go on, the lower the morale of the Russian army will be at the time of our counteroffensive.”