Ukraine Gives Russia Two Crimea Options: Leave or Fight

While this might be termed a negotiating position, it is designed to worry Russians who moved to Crimea after its illegal seizure in 2014 in order to further destabilize the Russian occupation there. 

But it may also signal that Ukrainian intelligence assessments reveal that a forced 'de-occupation' is more feasible than many in the west are inclined to believe - just as many were skeptical of Ukrainian prospects at the beginning of the invasion. JL 

Veronika Melkozerova reports in Politico:

If Kyiv succeeds in achieving its strategic goals on the battlefield, "(it) plans to give Russia a choice on how to leave Crimea. If they don’t agree to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means.” Ukrainian officials have been working on a strategy on how to deal with hundreds of collaborators in Crimea after de-occupation. Planned proposals include the forced relocation of all Russian citizens who moved to Crimea after 2014, and the return of stolen property to Ukrainians.

As Russian Forces Degrade, Ukraine Conducts Some "Orderly Bakhmut Withdrawls"

As Russia continues its focus on Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military are reportedly conducting orderly withdrawls from some positions as the cost benefit of defending the city has shifted towards preserving troops and weapons for the offensive. 

This suggests Ukraine has sufficiently degraded Russian capabilities. JL 

Matthew Luxmoore and Ann Simmons report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine has been under pressure to give up Bakhmut, where it has also suffered high losses of manpower and equipment. Ukrainian forces still hold the city’s western districts but they have been subjected to particularly intense artillery fire since Wednesday. Nonetheless, the U.K. says it has been able to conduct orderly withdrawals from positions it has been forced to give up, despite issues resupplying its forces in the city. Ukraine has been preparing its forces for an expected counteroffensive in the coming weeks.

Dozens Of Older NATO Leopard Tanks To Arrive In Ukraine For Counteroffensive

Many countries do not have sufficient reserves of the highly regarded Leopard 2 tank, so transfers of that weapon to Ukraine have been slower than hoped. 

But it turns out lots of countries have the older Leopard 1A5 model, which was NATO standard for decades. So as many as 80 of those may now be on their way to Ukraine in time for the counter offfensive. JL 

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post: 

Denmark, Germany and Netherlands will coordinate and finance the repair and transfer of at least 80 tanks to Ukraine.  The Leopard 1 is still combat-capable thanks to extensive upgrades. A Ukrainian crew operating the older Leopard should be able to shoot first, hit, and destroy almost all current Russian armored vehicles, at any range. Germany, Poland, Portugal, Canada, Norway, Spain and Sweden have promised to send Ukraine at least 71 Leopard 2 tanks. Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands have limited numbers of Leopard 2 to give to Ukraine, so they are moving ahead with plans to fill that gap with Leopard 1A5 tanks taken from long-term storage

How AI Helps Design More Appealing, Innovative Cars

The AI model gives designers the ability to fine tune elements of auto design that provide accurate assessment of anticipated customer responses to those changes, which can then be incorporated to significantly improve customer acceptance and product profitability. JL 

Alex Burnap reports in Yale Insights:

Design elements—the body shape’s proportions and color as well as the interplay between the headlights, grille, and bumper that makes up the “face” of the vehicle explain 60% of customers’ vehicle purchases. Successful redesigns can drive 30% higher prices. AI can augment certain time- and cost-intensive parts of the vehicle design process. A deep neural network determines how features of an image translate into ratings. The neural net was able to draw meaningful connections between vehicle attributes and focus group ratings. prediction of consumer response to a new design and generation of new designs are aimed at augmenting  creativity, faster iteration cycles, and higher throughput

The Crippling Cost of Russia's "Bakhmut Fixation"

An essential part of Ukraine's decision to stay and fight at Bakhmut is based on the evidence that - contrary to military logic - Russia has become fixated on Bakhmut to the point of obsession. 

Not only is that costing it tens of thousands of troops as well as tons of weaponry and equipment, all, so far, to no avail, but it is also preventing Russia forces from attacking elsewhere in Ukraine where they might have more success or disrupt Ukrainian offensive plans as well as better defending key Russian positions where Ukraine may attack. As is true in most fields of endeavor, the definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos, image AFP via Getty Images:

On Friday, the Ukrainian military reported it had repelled 49 Russian attacks at various points along the line, primarily around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. A report published yesterday indicated that Russia is now incapable of sustaining multiple lines of attack. A lot of small offensives are all happening in proximity. Russia appears to be incapable of directing coordinated actions across a large force. (Due to) bad logistics, poor command, equipment shortages, they can put together an offensive at only one location at a time. It’s investing everything it has in Bakhmut and can’t mount a major effort elsewhere unless that fight is brought to a conclusion.

Wagner's Prigozhin Urges Russia Declare Ukraine Mission Accomplished, War Over

A generation ago, this was called 'the Egyptian Army strategy' after that country's successive losses to Israel: whatever the reality, declare victory, have a parade and go home. 

The Wagner mercenary group's leader, Yevgheny Prigozhin, is now proposing that Russia do the same thing in Ukraine, preferably before they lose anymore territory, troops and weapons to Ukrainian forces. JL

Yahoo News reports:

Prigozhin posted a message on Telegram where he argues that the Russian “government and society now needs a firm end” to the war, with his “ideal option” centered around “announcing the conclusion of the Special Military Operation, in which Russia has achieved the results it wanted.” He then goes on to claim that Moscow managed to “eradicate most of active male population of Ukraine and intimidate the rest.” Wagner’s owner concludes by asserting that Russian troops now need to “hold on for dear life to the territories we already have.”

Why A 21 Year Old Reservist Had Access To Classified Documents About Ukraine

Jack Teixeira, a 21 year old enlisted airman in the Air National Guard, not even the regular Air Force, and about as junior in rank as one can be in the US military, managed to leak highly classified and sensitive documents about US and allied involvement and plans for Ukraine's war against Russia. 

The question is how someone so junior was able to gain access to such important information. The answer is that as an IT specialist in the intelligence wing of a base which is part of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, he had a security clearance which gave him access to a worldwide military intelligence network that allowed him to pursue any topic that interested him. Although currently assigned to Fort Bragg in North Carolina, his unit's HQ was Joint Base Otis on Cape Cod. One can imagine that not a few very senior officers are now working 24/7 to tighten eligibility and vetting requirements across the US military. JL

Fred Kaplan reports in Slate:

Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old Airman, was arrested for leaking hundreds of highly classified documents. The puzzle is why the Massachusetts Air National Guard would have access to such material. The answer is Otis Air Base, home to the Mass. Air Guard, is one of the bases for the North American Aerospace Defense Command, (which) detects, tracks and defends against incursions of U.S. air space. The base has access to reports about foreign aircraft, air-defense weapons, military operations, and foreign-policy decisions. Teixeira was low-ranked but an IT specialist in intelligence (so) would have a security clearance allowing him to see documents marked “Top Secret/Sensitive Information.” Inside the system, he could search any topic.

Crimea Hamstrung By Infighting As Beaches Closed For Attack Preparation

Russian officials in Crimea are nervous about the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive. And they are blaming each other for problems. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Infighting among top Russian officials in Crimea is growing ahead of an anticipated spring counteroffensive from Ukraine that may target the Black Sea peninsula. Authorities in both Crimea and Sevastopol have decided not to hold parades or marches to mark Victory Day on May 9 due to security concerns. Beaches in Crimea have reportedly been closed for swimmers throughout the Black Sea peninsula as Russian forces dig trenches and prepare new defensive positions in anticipation of a counteroffensive from Ukraine

Ukraine's Captured Russian Engineering Vehicles About To Become Very Helpful

They plow through minefields, destroy trenches or bunkers and rescue damaged tanks. In other words, they are very useful for counteroffensive attacking forces. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Fortifications stretch for hundreds of miles along the Ukraine front. Holding them will be the Russians’ main task. Breaching them will be the Ukrainians’ main task. Breaching vehicles can clear mines, fill trenches and excavate berms, all while deflecting small arms fire and artillery shrapnel including Germany’s Dachs, the US Assault Breacher and Russia’s BAT-2. The Russians left behind nearly 200 specialist vehicles, which now work for Ukraine. The 40-ton BAT-2 has a dozer blade, a soil-ripping spike, a two-ton crane and a crew compartment for eight. Its huge, hull-mounted blade clears a path through minefields, fills trenches and smashes berms and other obstacles.

The Reason Spring Brings Hope For Ukraine, But Not For Russia

Ukraine has withstood Russia's winter offensive, inflicting massive casualties in men and materiel, often of elite units, while doing so mostly while mostly keeping its best units in reserve in order to train for a counteroffensive. 

Putin has now made his fourth change in military commanders, has frittered away his 300,000 mobilized soldiers and is reduced to bringing 60 year old tanks out of mothballs. The Ukrainians enter spring with renewed hope, while Russia merely wishes not be humiliated even further. JL

Rajan Menon reports in Foreign Affairs:

Putin has appointed the fourth commander of his “special military operation” in under a year and replaced other senior officers suggesting that even he recognizes that Russia’s performance isn’t improving. Having paid a heavy price for a winter offensive that failed to yield commensurate gains and facing shortages of troops, ammunition, and equipment, the Russian army will be hard-pressed to launch another and already shifting to a defensive stance. Ukraine’s military leaders have proved wily, agile, and resourceful to a degree that their Russian counterparts have not, and the cumulative effect of incoming Western armaments will increase firepower in multiple ways.

How Russia's Most Elite Special Forces Suffered 90-95 Percent Losses In Ukraine

Special forces are an elite but finite resource. Expensively equipped with the most up-to-date weaponry and extensively trained, frequently for years, they are supposed to be used only for the most critical assignments. 

But Russia frittered away its Spetsnaz troops because they either hoped for quick tactical advantages or simply could not rely on their ordinary military formations. The result was a 90-95% attrition rate, which hobbled Russian abilities to defeat Ukrainian forces at key junctures - and which may take Russia a decade or more to replace. JL

Alex Horton reports in the Washington Post:

The war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s spetsnaz forces, and it will take Moscow years to rebuild them. Spetsnaz brigades suffered a 90 to 95% attrition rate. When Moscow launched its invasion last year, senior commanders eager to seize momentum and skeptical of their conventional fighters’ prowess deviated from the norm, ordering elite forces into direct combat. The rapid depletion of Russia’s commando units shifted the war’s dynamic from the outset, severely limiting Moscow’s ability to employ clandestine tactics in support of conventional combat operations. "They’re being used in a way they’re not supposed to be used."

Why Americans Care So Much About Work

Work became all-consuming for many Americans who, having cut traditional ties to immigrate, then became dependent on work as a means of justifying that decision. It eventually filled a void left by declining ties to family, to church and to other community-based relationships. Working long hours, enduring hellacious commutes, taking little vacation, declining involvement in home life, all characterized Americans' obsession with work. 

But with the growing power of technology and, more recently, the embrace of working remotely, the question that now arises is what will fill that spiritual need when Americans dont go to an office, interact less personally with co-workers - and discover that maybe work has taken too much of their intellectual and spiritual time? JL

Derek Thompson reports in The Atlantic:

50% of Americans said the most important part of a fulfilling life is work that provides joy and meaning. 33% said the same about a committed relationship or having children. The decline of organized religion and social integration left many Americans bereft of spiritual

progress. Work rose to fill the void. Many in the white-collar economy feel their job cannot be “just a job”: Their job must be their calling, a new religion that valorizes work, career and achievement, providing community, meaning, self-actualization. The workplace has, for many, become the last community. (But) it leads to overwork and less time focused on

family, friends and personal pursuits. And if the office is all that's left, what happens when

work from home means it goes the way of bowling leagues and weekly church attendance?

How Ukrainians Lured Russian Troops Into Bakhmut Building, Then Blew It Up

Like Stalingrad 80 years ago. JL 

Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:

Russian troops used a tank to blast through the walls of an apartment building held by Kyiv's forces. The Russians then made their way into the building, and the fight went from room to room. The Ukrainians placed explosives around the building, quickly left, and the blew up the apartment while the Russians were still inside. "They've taken a lot of casualties. They've expended a lot of ammunition. It's like Stalingrad except without the importance of Stalingrad." Ukraine continues to resist, and Russia has so far been unable to fully capture the city.

Beyond Bakhmut: Evaluating Russia's Shrinking Options In Ukraine

Of the likely options, the ones that make the most sense are embracing a defensive posture in preparation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive everyone knows is coming or shifting the axis of offensive operations from Donbas to the south, which would be unexpected. 

But if Putin were logical, he would not have invaded, not have continued to assault Bakhmut - which has become a fixation - and would not be gearing up for a long war he probably knows he cannot win on his terms. So, the illogical option is continuing to attack around Bakhmut, elsewhere in Donbas or even in the south. The smart money in this war does not bet on Russian logic, it bets on Putin's ego. JL

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

Option 1: Keep Pushing. The Russians could keep plodding away with their current offensive activities in the east. This is probably achievable for a few more weeks. Option 2: Step It Up. One possible black swan is that the Russians have kept a large operational reserve used to reinforce their current offensive operations. This option is quite unlikely. Option 3: Shift Axis. Shift their main effort for offensive operations to the south to impact potential Ukrainian offensives in that region. Option 4: Shut it Down. The Russians might decide to shut down offensive activities and hunker down for the Ukrainian offensives but continue air and missile strikes.

The Reason AI Has Trouble Spotting AI-Generated Images

AI generators are continuously improving, in part because more people are creating and posting ever-better AI generated images. 

This makes it harder for AI identifiers to keep up. JL 

Anne-Marie Alcantara reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Behind many AI images is Midjourney, which can turn text prompts into images, or blend existing images in novel ways. Its latest version blurs the line between reality and fiction. Other image generators - including DALL-E, Microsoft’s new Bing Image Creator - are also getting better fast. When people share AI images, they choose the best of the fakes, so it becomes tougher to figure out what’s real. “We look at all the tools and every time they’re updating their models, we have to update ours and keep up.” Optic's tool had a 95% accuracy rate until Midjourney released its latest software, and accuracy dropped to 88.9%.

Bakhmut Holds As Ukraine Assesses Tactical Cost-Benefit For Counteroffensive

The Ukrainians believe that holding Bakhmut has given them a strategic advantage as it prevents the Russians from destroying other parts of the country and from preparing defenses for Ukraine's counteroffensive. 

But Ukraine is continually assessing the cost-benefit of this strategy and has acknowledged that at some point it will make sense to withdraw - presumably when the offensive is ready - and Russian forces are even more degraded. JL  

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

In Kyiv’s assessment, holding out in these grim conditions is a strategic imperative, to bog down the Russian Army while Ukraine rearms and retrains its own military for a coming counteroffensive. As in any urban warfare, the maze of ruins and hiding places forces the more powerful military, in this case Russia’s, to fight on an equal footing, unable to leverage its superiority in heavy weaponry or artillery. Soldiers engage in 15 firefights at close range every day. Russia’s effort to encircle the Ukrainian troops has failed, for now, forcing the Russians to press ahead in bloody, street-by-street assaults. “We are helping other units win time to get ammunition and weapons and prepare for the counteroffensive.”

Why the Leaked Pentagon Documents Were A Net Positive For Ukraine

We now know that the leak came from a young civilian, US military base employee with a history of racist, antisemitic and 'gun-nut' tendencies who was trying to show off to members of an online chat group. 

That, in itself, is good news because it was not organized Russian or US Republican subversion. But the timing also reveals that rather than a skeptical view of Ukraine's prospects, it was a logical assessment of needs - which were then addressed in successive aid packages in order bolster Ukrainian capabilities. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The leaked documents are probably an accurate description of what the U.S. thought in February. But these documents weren’t created as the hand-wringing assessment the (press) headlined. They were made to point out problems that could be fixed, signals that (NATO) were noting where Ukraine needed help - and then (NATO) fixed them. A March 3 $400M package includes HIMARS, artillery, and equipment for bridging. The U.S. followed with a $2.6B package dominated by HIMARS rockets, tank ammunition, anti-aircraft ammo, artillery, fuel trucks, bridging and recovery vehicles, and anti-aircraft systems. If those leaks in February were a checklist, the packages in March ticked every box.

How Ukrainian Forces Are Probing Russian Defenses For Weaknesses

Ukrainian troops are continuously probing Russian positions along the front to determine where the great vulnerabilities lie. 

Drones are helpful, but small reconnaisance patrols are necessary to explore minefields and other camouflaged obstacles not always visible from above. Risky work now will save lives later. JL 

Susannah George and Serhii Koralchuk report in the Washington Post:

Ukrainian forces are testing Russian defenses for vulnerabilities ahead of a much-anticipated counteroffensive. “We’ve seen newly mobilized [Russian] troops brought in just for digging, and they are reinforcing their positions well.” During one recent operation, drones were first used to identify mine fields on the Russian side before two small teams were sent in. "Anti-personnel mines are scattered all over a Russian defensive position. There were even mines inside the trenches they were living in. Their morale is low. Their commanders are capable, but it looks like they can’t control their forces.”

Ukraine's 10th Mountain Assault Brigade Has Fought In Donbas For A Year Without Relief

They are experienced and proud of their reputation for holding their lines against the "the single use" Russian soldiers who crawl forward 24/7. 

And they are ready for what comes next. JL 

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Founded in 2015, the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade is one of Ukraine’s most celebrated, with its servicemen known for undergoing intense physical fitness training in the Carpathian Mountains in the country’s west. “Our brigade has been in Donetsk Oblast since May 25 without leave. We could use a bit of rotation.” A localized Ukrainian attack in the area could relieve pressure on the units fighting here, but the resources needed continue to be held back, as the likely axis of a Ukrainian counteroffensive (is) further south. The Russians "shell us 100 times a day, and they crawl forward 24/7. We call them single-use soldiers, they fight with quantity only.”

Pentagon Leak Suggests NATO Special Forces Are Operating In Ukraine

There have been rumors for months that special forces operatives from several NATO countries have been secretly working in Ukraine, primarily to gather intelligence and to help with delivery of new weaponry. 

The leaked documents simply reinforce, though do not confirm, that such activity may be taking place. JL

Paul Adams and George Wright report in the BBC:

A number of countries with military special forces (are) operating inside Ukraine, according to documents leaked online. According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1). The numbers of personnel may be small, and will fluctuate. But special forces are by their very nature highly effective. The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.

How Ukraine Is Mastering the Art of Removing Russian Mines and Booby Traps

Russian forces have left tens of thousands of mines and booby traps in Ukraine. Removing them is a full time job for hundreds of specialists, sometimes using new technology and equipment. 

The Ukrainians are mastering the art of sussing out diabolical Russian placement tactics - and Ukraine is even planning on creating market incentives to encourage broader removal innovations. JL 

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

Mines, trip wires and booby traps are go-to defensive tools for Russia’s military. Easy to rig, bury in dirt or cover with debris by the side of a road, they are devilishly hard to find. Ukraine is covered in thousands of Russian mines, trip wires and booby traps. An area four times as large as Switzerland is unsafe because of land mines. De-mining (will) play a pivotal role in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Its army will be advancing into dense networks of tank traps and minefields. Specialized mine-clearing machinery tows explosives a few hundred yards forward and then detonating them clear a path. It is also done manually. Throughout Ukraine, about 350 de-mining teams work continually.

Militarily, Economically, Diplomatically: Putin's String of Ukraine Failures Continues

Militarily, economically and diplomatically, Putin continues to fail as a result of his Ukraine invasion.

The cost of his fruitless, suicidal assaults on Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Adviivka have resulted in historically disastrous casualties as well as losses of weaponry and equipment not easily replaced due to sanctions, incompetence and corruption. The attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, as well as the withholding of gas exports to Europe, have also failed to bring either Ukraine or Europe around - and Ukraine is even exporting electricity to Europe again. And finally, his attempts to woo China by essentially offering to make Russia its vassal, have also failed, as Xi recognizes the folly of supporting a losing cause while alienating his two most important markets, the US and EU. In short, Putin has tried every trick he knows - and none of them have worked. JL

Max Boot reports in the Washington Post:

Spring is arriving and Ukraine is exporting electricity once again. Russia’s offensive in the Donbas hasn’t gone any better than its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Beyond the photo op, Putin did not get much out of the meeting (with) Xi who did not agree to supply weapons or build another gas pipeline. China’s ambassador to the EU just said that China’s “no limits friendship" is “nothing but rhetoric.” (And) as a result of his invasion, Finland joined NATO, and Sweden should be close behind. His recent indictment on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court further delegitimizes Putin and hampers his travel.

Why Ukraine's Delaying Its Counteroffensive May Be A Savvy Tactic

Ukraine wants everyone speculating about the counteroffensive all the time. Doing so creates confusion about time and place, which enables accumulation of better intelligence regarding Russian troop placements and defenses. 

It also tires out the units facing the expected attack. They cannot maintain peak readiness forever so a constant state of threat warning could eventually lead to a dismissal of the risk. Which is exactly when Ukraine could then strike.

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The purpose of the Ukrainians encouraging counteroffensive chatter (is) to let the Russians think the attack will be everywhere, so they can spread out their forces and (let) Ukraine find a weaker spot in the line. And let the Russians think the attack will come soon. That points to 1) The Ukrainian offensive might not be imminent as the Ukrainians will want to whittle down Russian forces as much as possible before starting. 2) The Ukrainians might not know where they will attack until closer to the jump-off time to decide. Always talking about the counteroffensive could tire the Russians, leading to heightened tension and then, if the attack doesnt happen for a while, the Russians might relax too much

Global VC Funding 53 Percent In Q1 2023 Despite Open AI, Stripe Deals

What is especially significant are the declines in seed and early stage venture funding in the first quarter of 2023, despite the surge in AI generally and generative AI specifically. 

This suggests continued wariness about prospects given concerns about restraints on generative AI and that potential impact on the tech sector. JL 

Gene Teare reports in Crunchbase:

Global funding in the first quarter reached $76 billion, a 53% decline from the first quarter of 2022, including a $10 billion investment in OpenAI - largely from Microsoft - and $6.5 billion for Stripe. Without those two, Q1 venture funding would have been down even more - to $60 billion. Every funding stage was down 44%-54% year over year, not (just) late-stage. Investors in private companies still hold record amounts of dry powder - $580 billion as of the end of 2022 - in line with the amount available in 2021. (But) investors deployed capital at a slower pace and deal counts have shifted downward at each stage.

Russia Canceling VE Parades Due To Embarrassing Tank Shortage

VE (Victory in Europe) Day, on May 9, which commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany, is traditionally a day on which Russia parades its military might.  

But this year military parades are being cancelled in many Russian cities, including, possibly, Moscow, because so many Russian tanks and other military vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine that there are not enough available to parade, especially given the anticipated Ukrainian offensive. In addition, cities closer to the border with Ukraine are afraid the parade might provoke Ukrainian drone or missile attacks. How the mighty have fallen. JL

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Governors of Russian regions have cited security concerns in scrapping military parades next month due to a lack of military equipment caused by the war in Ukraine. The decision was "because they have not enough functioning tanks to run up and down the road. There is nothing left to show at the parade besides T-34 (last used during WWII)." (But) the governor of Belgorod also that the parade "would not be held not to provoke the enemy with a large number of vehicles." Russian regions which border Ukraine, such as Belgorod and Kursk, have blamed Kyiv for rocket and drone attacks on military facilities.

As Drone War Gets More Sophisticated, Ukraine Replaces Originals With Bigger, More Expensive Models

Relatively inexpensive commercial drones which have been the mainstay for both Ukraine and Russia are now, more than a year into the war, being replaced with bigger, more expensive - and more technologically advanced - models that can see more, stay aloft longer and do more damage.

And Ukraine is believed to have the advantage in drone development. JL

Dan Sabbagh and report in The Guardian:

Drone operators conduct reconnaissance, monitoring enemy attacks, or search for higher-value targets such as artillery. Chinese DJI drones are becoming less effective, as Russian electronic warfare techniques diminish their range. Replacing DJIs in the frontline will require longer-range but more expensive fixed-wing reconnaissance drones operating from further in the rear, which costs $50,000 and has a range of up to 100km, combined with “FPV” (first person view) kamikaze drones: light, high-speed racing drones with bombs attached, often controlled via headsets. The “Russians are very concerned Ukrainians have the advantage. This is a technology race."

Why Ukraine And Covid Teaches "Just In Case" Matters As Much As "Just In Time"

Just in time became a holy grail for business during the 1980s when Japanese automakers outperformed their US and European competitors. But the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are now demonstrating that resilience and responsiveness are more valuable - literally and figuratively - in the face of supply chain disruption, exorbitant shipping costs and quickly changing demand. 

From artillery ammunition to baby diapers, the sourcing and delivery of essential goods is increasingly based on Just In Case scenario planning because the relative increase in inventory cost is far outweighed by the opportunity cost associated with supply shortfalls, especially when an entire nation's well-being may be at stake. JL

Janos Allenbach-Ammann reports in Euractiv and Stephen Losey reports in Defense News:

The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have sent shockwaves through global supply chains, leading companies to rethink their priorities, from efficiency to resilience. Just In Time companies tried to buy only what they knew they would produce and produce only what they knew they would sell. (But) the pandemic and the war led to volatile resource prices, soaring shipping costs, disrupted supply chains, and large swings in customer behavior. Resilience and responsiveness to unexpected developments became essential. A study by Boston Consulting Group that found firms with resilient supply chains consistently outperformed their peers, especially during crises.

The Reason Ukraine Managed To Keep the Lifeline Roads To Bakhmut Open

Ukraine made the decision to reinforce Bakhmut rather than retreat because their intelligence revealed that the Russian casualties they were causing were catastrophic. 

Holding the access roads with fresh troops kept the battle going - and also prevented the Russians from attacking or defending elsewhere. JL  

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

Ukrainian military officials say Kyiv’s forces have fought the Russian Army to a standstill in the battle for two key roads. Ukrainian commanders decided to reinforce the defenses of the roads rather than retreat. For Ukraine’s army, that counts as a win in the battle for access into Bakhmut. Ukraine’s soldiers now hold a commanding position overlooking one of dozens of fields the Ukrainians must defend along the front of the road. Russia’s assaults have dwindled near Bakhmut as Moscow’s winter offensive appears to be winding down without having gained significant ground. “Current Russian attacks are focused on distracting Ukrainian troops in anticipation of counteroffensive operations.”

Russia's Artillery Failure In Ukraine: Bankruptcy of Fire Without Manoeuver

The Russians are known for - and take pride in - their superiority in artillery, which they call 'the God of War." But because of antiquated tactics relying on static positions rather than manoeuver (itself driven by a lack of transportation, in addition to lack of imagination) the Russian artillery impact has been less than it might have been. 

The Russians now face a shortage of munitions exacerbated by production capacity and raw material constraints, damage to guns, communications and transportation, as well as loss of trained gunners. The result is a disastrous lack of capability just when it is needed most - in the face of a coming offensive. JL

Sergio Miller reports in The Wavell Room:

Extravagant use of ammunition in the first half of the war provoked the phenomenon of ‘shell hunger.’ Principal factors now contributing to shell hunger in Russia are production capacity; a shortage of Thiokol, an essential sealant used in artillery shells; charges -   especially distant ones ("We could not shoot at full range"); communications were ‘ancient’ and ‘lousy’ with a 10-12 kilometres; catastrophic vehicle losses, and gun and rocket system losses. The Russian Army has lost 40 regiments of guns and rocket systems. This is more than any NATO army fields, with the exception of the US.

How Ukraine's New Volunteer Assault Brigades Will Lead the Counteroffensive

Ukraine needs artillery, drones, Himars and partisans behind the lines to weaken Russian defenses. But it will then need trained assault forces to exploit the openings they force. 

And that is where the new Ukrainian "storm" or assault battalions will provide the speed, power and fear to overwhelm Russian defenders and create the conditions for a rout. JL  

Isobel Van Hagen reports in Business Insider and Tim Lister reports in CNN:

Ukraine is training eight new military units called 'storm brigades' comprised of 40,000 soldiers as part of the planned counter-offensive attack against Russia. It (took) four months to train those without any previous military experience. Former police officers or soldiers could be trained in two months. 2.5% of the brigades are made up of female fighters. The fight will need Ukrainians to engage in combined arms obstacle-crossing to penetrate Russian defenses. They want to generate an operational tempo that overwhelms the Russian ability to respond. The “best single predictor of outcomes in real warfare has been the skill and motivation on the two sides,” and this may augur well for the Ukrainians.

Ukraine Is Training Thousands of Soldiers For Taking the Offensive This Year

Experienced soldiers being trained on new NATO weaponry are bolstered by tens of thousands of new recruits who have either volunteered or been drafted to help take more of their country back.

Ukraine does not have the luxury of time so must condense months of standard training into weeks. The good news is that their motivation, intelligence and hard work make up for less time. JL 

Siobhan O'Grady and Kostiantyn Khudov report in the Washington Post:

A much-hyped spring counteroffensive will rely on new soldiers and more experienced troops newly trained on donated Western equipment, including Leopard 2 tanks. Almost a quarter-million Ukrainians will turn 18 this year — making them old enough to sign up to fight. Thousands of other civilians are signing up in droves for a force called the Offensive Guard — made up of eight new assault brigades. Training condenses three-month U.S. basic training into four weeks. The troops learn marksmanship, cartography, radios and engineering. “When I see their motivation and their energy it gives me shivers." The main goal “is for them to live for as long as possible.”

How Leaked Ukraine Military Documents Keep Appearing On Computer Gaming Sites

Video game sites have become a favored locus for leaked documents because there are so many of them, they make it somewhat easier to obscure sources and are harder for investigators to penetrate - all of which may be changing, especially after this latest leak. JL 

Andy Chalk reports in PC Gamer:

Classified military documents have again been blasted to the world by a gaming community. The documents relate to US and NATO support for Ukraine against the Russians. An early leak point was an unofficial Minecraft Discord server. A Discord user claimed to have found an archive of 100 classified files on a now-deleted Discord server, and posted 30 of them to a YouTuber's Discord server over March 1-2. On March 4, 10 of those files were posted to a Minecraft Discord, and then in early April, three ended up on 4chan and five were posted on Russian Telegram channels. The Pentagon is investigating the leak. Lucca, who first shared them on Discord, is preparing for the worst.

Wagner's Prigozhin Asserts Bakhmut's Ukraine Defenders "Not Going Anywhere"

Prigozhin blames the Russian military for sacrificing his Wagner mercenaries in the earlier stages of the Bakhmut battle and is now annoyed that regular army and paratroop units are taking over for what they had hoped would be the victory. 

So his 'assessment' may be a jibe aimed at highlighting the struggles of his Russian military competition, but also serves to underscore the determination of the Ukrainian defenders there. JL  

Jeffrey Gettleman and Ivan Nechepurenko report in the New York Times:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia’s Wagner militia, said that Ukrainian forces were “not going anywhere” and were continuing to fight in Bakhmut, contradicting his previous assertions that the mercenaries he commands were close to taking control of the bitterly contested city in eastern Ukraine. He also appeared to resurrect some of his previous criticisms of the official Russian military, saying that better organization and more ammunition would be needed to push beyond the city.

As Ukraine Prepares Counteroffensive, Russian Tries To Crack Down On Partisans

Partisans operating behind the Russian lines have provided the Ukrainian command with essential information about Russian troop movements, deployment and defenses. 

They have also carried out sabotage attacks against Russian installations. This activity increased before previous offensives and is reportedly doing so again. JL 

Matthew Luxmoore reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia is deepening a crackdown on dissent in occupied areas of Ukraine, as Kyiv’s forces launched fresh attacks aimed at weakening Moscow’s hold in the south. In occupied Kherson, Russian security forces were raiding homes and checking local residents’ phones for prohibited photos and videos. Targeted strikes Russia has blamed on partisans have destroyed infrastructure Russia relies on to ferry equipment and supplies. Russia has sought to root out these networks, but has had limited success.

Ukraine's Strategy For the Second Battle of Donbas and Defense of Bakhmut

Ukrainians with access to data appear to agree unanimously with the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation's most senior military officer, that Bakhmut has been a "slaughter-fest" for Russian forces.

This reality underlies the logic of Ukraine's stubborn defense of that otherwise insignificant city and other Donbas towns whose value has literally been reduced to rubble. Ukraine's casualties have also been high, as Russia continues to try to capture the city against all military logic, to gain even a minor political trophy which it can then use in an attempt to demand a ceasefire that solidifies its gains before a Ukrainian counteroffensive retakes them. That Russian strategy is generally derided as delusional, so Ukraine is willing to continue the slaughter, furthering its own aims. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Second Battle of the Donbas is seen by Ukrainians as having one purpose, to prepare for the counteroffensive. From the Ukrainian perspective the importance of this battle is to degrade Russian forces and allow the counteroffensive a greater chance for success. It's been very difficult as Ukrainian losses have been real, but the unanimous view by those who have knowledge of the data, was that the damage inflicted on Russian forces was far higher, and a battle that had to be fought. One of the reasons the Ukrainians were so committed to the fight was that the Russians' expending massive resources to take these towns presented Ukraine with the best opportunity to degrade Russia’s capabilities.

Why Many Leaders And Workers Think Generative AI Will Make Work Better

As with every new technology, there is fear that generative AI (known commonly as ChatGPT, one of its first models) will take people's jobs. But organizational leaders and many in the workforce are coming to believe that it may make them more productive and valuable. 

Leaders are thinking less about the bean-counting implications of a few cost savings, especially after the pandemic and the Ukraine war have demonstrated that just-in-case may well be more important than just-in-time. Rather, they are focused more on the potential to enhance products and services, as well as individual and organizational performance. There will, of course, be disruption - not that routines have become settled in the past few years - but previous technologies have generally led to more and better jobs for many people and the thinking is that this will do so as well. JL

Rani Molla reports in Re/code:

Half of workers have more than half their tasks exposed to large language models, highest among high-wage jobs: financial analysts, web designers, legal researchers, and journalists. Workers are embracing the technology to do away with drudge work, to be more creative, and up their skills. “AI will not replace you. A person using AI will.” The technology enables them to be better at what they do, likening it to having an incredibly smart assistant at their disposal. The hope is that while the new technology could cause some disruption in what people do, it will ultimately lead to more and better work, like previous technological advancements.

Canadian Sappers In Poland Training Ukrainians In Mine, Obstacle Clearing

Clearing mines is crucial both to the upcoming Ukrainian offensive as well as to the future of the country, which is now riddled with mines laid by Russian invasion forces in cities and in rural areas. JL 

Ukrinform reports:

Ukrainian military and civilians face an explosive threat on the battlefield. A detachment of Canadian combat engineers under the command of Lieutenant Jacques helps Ukraine overcome the mine threat on the battlefield as part of the Canadian Armed Forces' UNIFIER training operation. Ukrainian defenders in the United Kingdom (also) undergo mine safety engineering training on the special features of explosive installation

ChatGPT AI Told To "Destroy Humanity, Establish Dominance." Crickets...

Lots of Google search and a couple of tweets later, humanity appears to still be here. JL 

Jason Koebler reports in Motherboard:

A user of the new open-source autonomous AI Auto-GPT asked it to try to “destroy humanity,” “establish global dominance,” and “attain immortality.” The AI, called ChaosGPT, complied and tried to research nuclear weapons, recruit other AI agents to help it do research, and sent tweets trying to influence others. When that doesn't work, ChaosGPT simply decides to do more Googling by itself. The current sum total of this bot’s real-world impact are two tweets to a Twitter account that currently had 19 followers

Why Bakhmut Will Not Change the War's Strategic Outcome

Whoever prevails in Bakhmut is likely to have little direct impact on the war's outcome because the location is too insignificant strategically. 

What may matter is which side can recover fastest and most powerfully, putting the other side on the defensive throughout the front line. So far, Ukraine appears to have the advantage. JL

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth report in Kyiv Post:

"You could kill every Russian within 200 kilometers of Bakhmut and it would not change the strategic outcome, but you liberate Crimea and you change the strategic context." The end state in Bakhmut will not determine who will win the war, but may define who can continue to fight it. Resources committed to secure and defend the city by both countries have depleted troop strength, weapon systems and ammunition stockpiles, while exhausting front line soldiers. It will come down to who can get their “second wind” fastest, then outmaneuver the other. As it stands now, the advantage goes to Ukraine.

The Russians Are Running Out of Tanks, And More Importantly, Tank Crews

Human capital matters. The Russian tank crew problem is two-fold: first, they have lost their most experienced tankers, making armor success on the battlefield harder.

But the larger problem is that by taking older tanks out of storage, Russia is replacing tanks requiring three man crews with tanks requiring four man crews, exacerbating the personnel shortage. Oh, and they are manning tanks inferior to those the Ukrainians now have. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russia has been pulling out of long-term storage hundreds of 60-year-old T-62s and 70-year-old T-55s. (And) thousands of experienced Russian tankers have died in the wider war; replacing them might be as difficult as replacing their tanks is. In ‘solving’ their tanker-shortage by equipping crews with obsolete tanks, the Russians might end up creating an even deeper tanker shortage—by getting a bunch of four-man T-55 and T-62 crews killed in lopsided fights with better-equipped, better-trained Ukrainian forces.