There Is Growing Evidence of Ukraine Counteroffensive Strategic Thrust

While the details remain unclear, it is apparent that the counteroffensive has begun, at least as an initial thrust and that its focus is strategic rather than local and tactical. JL 

Samantha Schmidt reports in the Washington Post:

Ukrainian troops, including specialized attack units armed with Western weapons and trained in NATO tactics, intensified their strikes on front-line positions in the country’s southeast, according to four people in the country’s armed forces, beginning a significant push into Russian-occupied territory. Russian military bloggers also reported heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region, a part of the front line that has long been seen as a likely location of the new Ukrainian campaign.

Ukraine Increasing Attacks In South and Bakhmut Area

Details about the nature and direction of Ukrainian attacks are becoming clearer. As has been long predicted, the most serious attacks are towards the south, to cut the Russian land connection to occupied Crimea. There are also attacks around Bakhmut, which seem to be both opportunistic, given Russian weaknesses in the area, and to serve as a distraction away from the main focus of the counteroffensive, though that could change if it turns out Russian defenses in the eastern Donbas collapse. 

It may be a few more days before the real thrust becomes better defined. JL

Mark Sumner and Kos report in Daily Kos:

Four days after Russian sources first began reporting Ukrainian attacks along the southern front, those attacks seem to be getting more significant. Rather than small unit actions, three full brigades are engaged. Ukraine has launched attacks not just in the three areas where actions had been underway up until yesterday, but also well to the west, north of Melitopol and Tokmak.Those attacks appear to have had success in moving Russian forces back. Western gear is designed to protect crews from mines. By all indications, the crews of all these vehicles survived and the vehicles can be towed to the rear for repair, to be thrown back into the battle later.

Ukraine's Counteroffensive Gathers Steam As NATO Armor Emerges

The appearance of recently delivered NATO tanks and other advanced weapons on the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine suggest that the counteroffensive has begun in earnest.

Ukraine is attacking in numerous areas as it looks for the most opportunistic breakthough points. JL 

Isabel Coles and Ann Simmons report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian forces have begun deploying Western armored vehicles and units trained by the West into combat for the first time, marking the start of a counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces. Ukrainian forces were probing Russian defenses as Kyiv searched for weak points that could allow it to break through Russian lines. the counteroffensive could take time to produce results and could come at a heavy cost.

Anti- Putin Russian Partisans Are Now Threatening Crimea

Quite possibly disinformation intended to cause Russian military confusion, the statement may still be effective due to the Anti-Putin partisans success around Belgorod and Russian sensititivies about the importance of Crimea. JL  

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

The self-proclaimed anti-Putin partisans who have launched incursions into Russia say their next target is the Crimean peninsula.In an address apparently broadcast on radio stations in Crimea, The Freedom For Russia Legion said they, along with the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), were going to conduct a raid into the peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014.

Why the Counteroffensive Will Be Multidirectional

To prevent the Russians confused and preventing them from reinforcing key points, which increases the chances of Ukrainians offensive success. JL 

Eric Schmitt and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Ukrainian forces intensified attacks overnight in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia in what a senior U.S. official said appeared to be a main thrust of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said the counteroffensive would involve attacks on multiple locations, as Kyiv’s forces push forward, probing for vulnerabilities in Russia’s defensive lines.

How Climate Change May Force One Third of Humanity Out of Most Livable Areas

Climate change is creating a socio-economic crisis by reducing the habitable land area most suitable for humanity. 

Recent data suggest that this is already happening but will accelerate within a generation, exacerbating migration, food and water availability and survival rates. JL 

Abraham Lustgarten reports in Talking Points Memo:

Climate change is remapping where humans can exist on the planet. For the past 6,000 years humans have gravitated toward a narrow range of temperatures and precipitation levels that supported agriculture and economic growth. While just 1% of the earth’s surface is now intolerably hot, nearly 20% could by 2070. As optimum conditions shift away from the equator and toward the poles, 600 million people have already been stranded outside of a crucial environmental niche that scientists say best supports life. By late this century, 3 to 6 billion people, or between a third and a half of humanity, could be trapped outside of that zone, facing extreme heat, food scarcity and higher death rates.

Ukraine Assault Training Focused On Lethality, Survivability

Lethality equates with survivability in the reality of assaulting strong defensive positions such as those the Russians have constructed in occupied Ukraine. JL 

Asami Terajima reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian soldiers are always highly motivated to take as much from the training as possible because “they know where they are going. These soldiers have mostly been fighting in defensive positions in the trenches. I focus on assault fighting. This saves lives, that’s my main objective. An infantryman must be absolutely superior with his assault rifle and his hand grenade.” Their risks are high as assault troops are the first to storm into unknown territory.

NATO's Plan To Keep Supplying Ukraine With Artillery Ammunition

Artillery has been a decisive factor in the war between Ukraine and Russia. And ammunition for it is increasingly scarce since the post Soviet era caused NATO countries to become lax in its production of military supplies. 

NATO is now investing heavily in this - and may be able to ramp up production fairly quickly. JL 

Jen Kirby reports in Vox:

In Ukraine, artillery has become a defining feature of the war. the US and Europe are trying to scale up production. Typically, the United States produces about 14,000 155 mm shells per month, just a small fraction of what the US has given Ukraine in the past year and a half. Now, the Pentagon is investing about $1.45 billion to increase that to 24,000 per month later this year, with the goal of reaching 85,000 to 90,000 rounds per month in five years. This is about a 500 percent increase in production in two years.the European Union proposed a plan to deliver about 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of the year.

FBI Says AI-Generated Deepfakes Increasingly Used In Sextortion Schemes

Hardly surprising, but another example of how the spread of AI is not an unalloyed good and may require regulation greater than the law currently provides. JL 

Dan Goodin reports in ars technica:

The FBI warned of the increasing use of artificial intelligence to generate phony videos for use in sextortion schemes that attempt to harass minors and non-consulting adults or coerce them into paying ransoms or complying with other demands. In recent months the use of AI to generate fake videos that appear to show real people engaged in sexually explicit activities has grown. Scammers often obtain victims’ photos from social mediat and typically demanded: 1. Payment (e.g., money, gift cards) with threats to share the images or videos with family members or social media friends if funds were not received; or 2. The victim send real sexually themed images or videos.

How Ukraine Mastered the Treacherous Business of Storming Trenches

To reach their objective of pushing the Russians out of their country, the Ukrainians are going to have to storm a lot of trenches. 

And so figuring out how to do that became an essential skill. Which they appear to have mastered through training and practice. JL 

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

The counteroffensive entails breaking through Russian land mines, tank barriers and trenches. For months, Ukraine has been training specialized units for such assaults, with allies instructing Ukrainian soldiers on how to coordinate artillery, armored vehicles and infantry. The goal is to breach a maze of protected firing positions and bunkers linked by sunken walkways and guarded by the enemy. Ukrainian mortar units bombard the position. A tank opens fire. Armored Humvees fire 3,000 bullets from Browning machine guns. By the time a Ukrainian soldiers arrived the Russian trench, the defenders appeared deafened by the artillery explosions and too disoriented to fight back.

Dam Busting Consequences For Ukraine and Russia

Much of the 'horse race' analysis of the Nova Khakovka dam demolition - who benefits, who loses - has focused on implications for the counteroffensive. And it can cut both ways, though reports of drowning Russian soldiers, flooded defensive works and the probability that Ukraine had already factored this possibility into its calculations into its planning suggest they were not the culprit.

But evaluations in the last day reveal that the dam's destruction will reduce Crimea's water supply by as much as 85%, indicating that the decision to blow was an indication that the Russians dont highly rate their own chances of holding occupied Ukraine. JL   

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Prior to the war, the North Crimean Canal provided 85% of Crimea’s water. The need for gravity means that the canal’s water intake isn’t being pumped from the bottom of the reservoir, but skimmed off the top. The disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir is the end of the canal. By the end of the year, Ukraine could have the Crimean peninsula completely isolated. (And) if Mariupol is liberated, Ukraine would have complete fire control over Russian shipping in the Azov Sea, shutting down the key Russian logistical hub at Rostov-on-Don. Ukraine may not even need to invade Crimea to liberate it. It could pull another Kherson, making it logistically impossible for Russia to hold.

How Ukraine Tricked Russians To Widen Counteroffensive's Southern Bridgehead

In several locations, Ukrainian forces appeared to retreat, causing Russians to advance, only to be then cut off. The Russians' problems are being compounded by their excessive mining of fields and roads. 

One unexpected side effect is that as Russian troops panic and attempt to retreat in the face of the counteroffensive they are setting off their own poorly marked minefields. JL

Alya Shandra reports in Euromaidan Press:

The Ukrainians tricked Russian forces by appearing to reinforce small attacks, allowing them to close in almost undetected. As Ukrainians simultaneously jammed radio signals, the Russians were unable to request support and were consequently defeated. Ukrainians subsequently launched assaults towards Urozhaine and Novomaiorske. The goal was not immediate capture of the next settlements, but rather to expand the bridgehead and establish positions in the fields. These coordinated actions enabled Ukrainians to cross the river, dispersing their forces, and establishing a broad bridgehead. (And) Russian forces are falling victim to their own mines due to the fields and roads being excessively mined.

Moscow Drone Attack Not Random, Targeted Homes Of Russian Intelligence Officials

It turns out Ukraine was sending a message to a specific audience with its Moscow drone attacks, one which was intended both to instill fear in the targets that Kyiv knows more about them than they may have realized. 

And that message also serves to further undermine Putin's rule by demonstrating his regime's vulnerability. JL 

Ken Dilanian and colleagues report in NBC:

A drone attack in Moscow last week appeared to target the homes of Russian intelligence officers, the latest salvo in a psychological campaign against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. At least one of the apartment buildings hit in the drone strikes has ties to Russia’s SVR. The building is owned by a Russian state budgetary organization, which has held contracts with a military unit known to be a cover for the Foreign Intelligence Service. “This was not some random attack on a wealthy suburb.”

Why Ukrainian Attacks Across Russian Border No Longer Worry US, NATO

The US and NATO increasingly appear to believe that Russia's military will continue to lose to Ukraine and that Putin will refrain from using nuclear weapons, primarily due to demands for restraint from China.He must also now worry about a possible internal coup or insurrection by those probably more inclined to restoration of economic normalcy.

The destruction of the NovaKohkovka Dam shows Russia can still act out, but fears of a broader conflict have receded, thus giving Ukraine freedom to strike across the border. JL

Helene Cooper and colleagues report in the New York Times:

A series of bold attacks in Russia, from a swarm of drone attacks in Moscow to the shelling of towns in the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine and an incursion into the country using American-made armored vehicles, have been greeted by the Biden administration with the diplomatic equivalent of a shrug. "This is what happens in a war.” Russia’s battered military has shown itself unable to make significant gains against Ukraine. Fears that Russia might use a tactical nuclear weapon have receded. "The administration has turned the corner to understanding that not only is Russia the strategic loser, but that they are very likely going to be the military loser.”

US, NATO Pleased By "Better Than Expected" Counteroffensive's 1st Day

Although Ukraine has still not formally announced that the counteroffensive has started - and may not do so for days - NATO officials increasingly believe it has and they are pleased with what they are seeing.

Though the gains are scattered and incremental, the advances so far are of sufficient depth and width to confirm belief in Ukrainians' plan and performance versus that of the Russians. JL 

David Ignatius reports in the Washington Post:

Biden administration officials believe the offensive began Monday with a Ukrainian thrust south along multiple axes. Ukraine’s strategy appears to be an attack along several lanes, so they can move forces among them to hit targets of greatest opportunity. Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front. That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast — severing the land bridge.

Meanwhile, Beyond the Dam Break, Ukraine Advances In Bakhmut and Belgorod

The demolition of the NovaKakhovka Dam has received the lions share of attention in the past 24 hours, but elsewhere on the front - and specifically in Bakhmut and Belgorod - fighting is intensifying - to the Ukrainians' advantage. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

After months of tracking change of control block by block on maps zoomed to a scale of a couple of hundred meters, the scale bar is 10 kilometers. Ukraine has taken positions that were captured by Russia in January. This is not a major counteroffensive, but it is having sizable results. Despite Russian claims, there doesn’t seem to be evidence of new NATO gear being used. This is not (yet) the large, combined arms action expected (from) those new Western-trained and equipped Ukrainian brigades. (And) that anti-Putin forces have been able to sustain a small occupation force within Russia for nearly a week in the Belgorod area shows how slow Russia has been to respond.

Is Venture Capital's Funding Behavior Becoming Counter-Productive?

As generative AI begins to look like it might actually be that next big thing, is the search for mega-growth thwarting real innovation by creating unrealistic expectations fueled by endless money and breathless hype?

The question is more than academic as IPOs become an historical anecdote and startups wither in the face of daunting demands for impossible returns. JL 

Kyle Harrison reports in Newcomer:

Venture capital, as an institution, has developed a number of “move fast and break things,” “grow at all costs,” and “blitzscaling” playbooks. But like an unreliable drug dealer, as soon as VCs got a generation of founders hooked on massive amounts of capital, ever larger valuations, and increasingly grand ambitions, they disappeared. There are few playbooks for how to make progress from unsustainable to sustainable. Who cares if Uber is at $30B of revenue, still trying to figure out “if our unit economics work”? The early investors made lots of money. The next phase is someone else’s problem.

Ukraine Military Intelligence and Russian Forces' Morale Are Key Offensive Factors

While the increase in offensive activity may presage the counteroffensive, it is currently more likely to represent reconnaissance in force by the Ukrainians to determine areas of greatest weakness in Russian defensive lines and in Russian troop morale. 

These are key variables because it is historically harder to attack than defend, so assessing the vectors for most likely offensive success is crucial to the outcome of the counteroffensive. JL 

Tom Burridge reports in ABC:

It's unclear whether fresh offensive actions by the Ukrainian military will evolve into larger assaults on wider areas of the Russian front lines or whether they are more localized -- or even diversionary operations -- aimed at testing and wearing down the Russian defenses in preparation for a more substantial offensive later. Keeping the Russian military waiting and guessing is an important part of the Ukrainian game plan. "It will all come down to how good Ukrainian and western supplied intelligence is, and how well Ukraine is able to exploit the Russian weaknesses they find." (But) it is also important to bear in mind "how surprisingly poorly the Russian military has performed in this war."

Ukraine Has Sabotage Agents In Russia Who Have Drones To Stage Attacks

It is a clever strategy for damaging military-related infrastructure, diverting scarce military resources as well as creating psychological uncertainty among Russians. 

And it illustrates how many Russians are willing to take up arms against the Putin regime. JL 

Natasha Bertrand and colleagues report in CNN:

There has been a steady drumbeat of mysterious fires and explosions inside Russia over the last year. (There has been) an uptick in these attacks in recent weeks. Ukraine has a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia to carry out sabotage and is providing them with drones to stage attacks. Sabotage cells inside Russia (are) a mix of pro-Ukrainian sympathizers and operatives trained in this kind of warfare. (It) has established smuggling routes to send drone components into Russia where (are) assembled. The Russian-Ukrainian border is vast and difficult to control, making it ripe for smuggling. "Cash works wonders." The attacks are a smart military strategy that diverts Russian resources

Generative AI Is Actually Replacing People In Highly-Paid Jobs

Creative talent will not save your job. Basic analytics and communications can be done well enough for some employers to decide that the cost savings are worth the decline in quality. 

And although some clients may object, they are probably undergoing the same evaluation themselves. JL 

Pranshu Verma and Gerrit De Vynck report in the Washington Post:

Those who write marketing and social media content are in the first wave of people being replaced with tools such as chatbots, which are able to produce plausible alternatives to their work. (But) because they work by predicting the most statistically likely word in a sentence, they churn out average content by design. That provides companies with a tough decision: quality vs. cost. For many companies, the cost-cutting is worth a drop in quality. Copywriting, document translation, transcription, and paralegal work are particularly at risk, because they are easily done by chatbots

Ukraine's Operational Security Demands Limit Counteroffensive Progress Reports

All sources at this point are speculating about whether the counteroffensive has begun and, if so, where. This is due to Ukraine's effective insistence on operational security, notably memorialized in WWII by the phrase "loose lips sink ships."

What is known is that Ukraine has initiated multiple offensive thrusts in the Donbas and southern Ukraine, most of which appear to be probes/reconnaisance in force. The purpose is to determine or confirm weaknesses in Russian defenses. And so far, they appear to be succeeding. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

There are at least five offensive operations underway by Ukraine. We know there are Ukrainian advances north and south of Bakhmut. There are a number of Ukrainian actions along the southern front. (But) more reports are coming in from Russian sources than Ukrainian. This pattern, where Ukrainian sources are mostly silent and Russian forces are chattering, happened with Kharkiv last fall and with Kherson. Around Belgorod, that anti-Putin forces have remained in control of Russian territory for days indicates Russia’s border is porous and home defense forces are dysfunctional. "A defensive operation includes counteroffensive actions. In some areas we are moving to offensive actions."

Could Russia's Defensive Lines In Ukraine Be More Fragile Than Originally Thought?

As speculation rages about whether Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun - - especially in light of the NovaKhokova Dam breach, which has flooded some Russian defenses south of Kherson - there is also interest in whether Russia is even capable of defending most of its new trench lines. 

The hope is that Russia has fewer troops than predicted due to its obsession with Bakhmut and that this has created serious vulnerabilities elsewhere along the line. JL 

The Economist reports:

American and (NATO) officials advising Ukraine say Russia’s defensive lines could be more fragile than thought. A fast, violent assault is the best way to minimise casualties and deny Russian forces the opportunity to reinforce breakthrough. Ukraine (was) too cautious during last year’s offensive in Kherson province, allowing thousands of Russian forces to escape with their equipment. Ukraine’s main effort is still to come. (It) will have to find the best places to break Russian lines along a narrow segment of the front to force Russia to defend a number of areas at once, stretching its units thin. Russia cannot defend the entire length of the front. Ukraine is still probing, looking for vulnerabilities - or creating them - before committing its strongest units.

How Russia Breach of the NovaKhokova Dam Reflects Its Ukraine Economic Strategy

Ukraine have been worried since last summer that Russia might blow up the Novakhokova Dam, especially after the Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson. 

That the Russians finally did what so many had predicted is a reflection of military weakness, as most of the flooding is on the left (Russian-occupied) bank of the Dnipro River, ruining substantial Russian defensive lines there, which suggests they had little hope of holding those trenches and bunkers for long anyway. But what the dam breach does is further damage the Ukrainian economy and prolong the rebuilding that will have to be done. And that plays into their longer term strategy of delaying Ukraine's emergence as an economic power whose existence threatens Russian dreams of hegemony as well as offering an alternative vision of life to Russians themselves. JL

Marnix Provoost and Pieter Balcaen report in Modern War Institute:

Russia fears an economically prosperous, democratic Ukraine that offers Russians the prospect of an alternative political and economic system other than authoritarian-ruled kleptocracy. This might be why Russian President Vladimir Putin characterizes the war in Ukraine as existential in nature. Russia’s principal political objective in Ukraine is not (achieved) solely with military action, but with coordinated attrition, using military, economic, and diplomatic activities to exhaust Ukraine and its Western backers. Targeting Ukraine’s economy contributes to the Russian military-political objective of dismantling Ukraine as a strong, sovereign state.

Wagner's Prigozhin Says Bakhmut Is No Longer Under Russian Control

Prigozhin has lots of self-interested reasons to be rooting against the Russians at Bakhmut, if only to compare their failure to Wagner's ostensible success.  And he is hardly a reliable source. 

But he is claiming the Russians who replaced Wagner forces in Bakhmut have already lost the city to the Ukrainians, which is an easily verifiable statement - one he would be unlikely to make unless it were at least mostly true - and he could then intervene to change the course of the battle. But the larger issue is whether Russian troops will withdraw across the entire front as Ukraine attacks. JL

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Days after forces from Russia's Wagner Group withdrew from Bakhmut, its chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said the city is no longer under Russian control, and that troops under the leadership of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov are fleeing. Ukrainian forces have now retaken part of the settlement of Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut, Prigozhin said, calling it "shameful."

How Ukraine Is Attacking Extensive Russian Trenches, Bunkers

One way is by targeting Russian logistics behind the lines so the troops manning the trenches do not have sufficient ammunition, food and other necessities. 

The other is by targeting specific areas which appear to be vulnerable or weakly defended, then using heavy armor and specialized equipment to break them quickly before Russian reserves can be brought up to plug the breach. JL 

Daniel Michaels and Ian Lovett report in the Wall Street Journal:

The Russians have constructed an elaborate network of obstacles—including antitank trenches, concrete barriers known as dragon’s teeth and layers of advanced minefields—in Ukraine, where Kyiv is expected to attack. But physical impediments are only as good as the troops manning them. Without resolute, reactive forces, all those trenches, blockades and minefields will slow but not stop trained, well-equipped attackers. (And) targeting logistics—which starves troops of basic supplies, such as ammunition—was one way Ukraine had undercut the Russian manpower advantage.

Anti-Putin Fighters Offer Russian POWs Trade For Wagner-Captured Russian Officer

It was bad enough that Anti-Putin fighters supported by Ukraine who have made repeated incursions into Russian territory captured, in their latest attack, 12 Russian soldiers. 

But they are now adding to Russia's embarrassment by offering to trade the POWs for a Russian army colonel captured by Wagner because they say he ordered his troops to fire on them. The hostility between Wagner, the Russian army and the Chechens is growing, which Ukraine is using to both its military and public relations advantage. JL 

Euromaidan Press and Pjotr Sauer in The Guardian report:

Anti-Putin Russians fighting for Ukraine said that they will hand over Russian POWs captured inside Russia to Ukraine after the governor of Belgorod failed to pick them up. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group captured a Russian commander, Lt Col Roman Venevitin, the commander of Russia’s 72nd Brigade, (who) told an interrogator that, while drunk, he ordered his troops to fire on a Wagner convoy. (The anti-Putin Russians are now saying they will trade the 12 Russian soldiers they captured during their current Belgorod incursion for Wagner's captured Russian colonel).

Ukraine Launches Multiple Attacks, Possibly Using Leopard Tanks

Multiple sources are reporting attacks by Ukrainian forces along a wide swath of the frontline, including Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia, Svatove and other areas in the east and south. 

There have also been reports of Leopard tanks in use, though this may be misidentification by panicked Russian troops. Whatever the truth, there is clearly an increase in offensive activity. JL 

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukraine troops have launched ground attacks in multiple sectors in a possible curtain-raiser for Kyiv’s long-awaited counteroffensive, with Kremlin-associated platforms reporting first-time combat use of German Leopard tanks. Ukrainian use of US combat engineering vehicles firing explosive charges to clear Russian minefields was also reported but the location was not. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, strikes focus on a 50 km.-wide swath of the Russian battle line and supporting forces behind it. To the north of Bakhmut, “the AFU have captured part of the village Berkhivka, Russian troops are running, it’s humiliating!"

Why Evidence Is Growing Ukraine's Counteroffensive Might Have Started

There are lots of reports out of Ukraine today of...something...though there is considerable disagreement about what that means. Russia is claiming it repulsed the first counteroffensive attack - though as one source pointed out, anyone who believes that is likely to believe them when they say that Elvis and JFK are still alive. 

Ukraine, as the picture suggests, is urging everyone to keep silent. And there are reports of heightened fighting in numerous places along the 600 mile front line - including inside Russia's Belgorod region. But Ukraine is unlikely to provide more illumination of the situation until the results are clearer. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Something is happening. Neither action in the north in the direction of Novaya Tavolzhanka, nor action in the south is in itself the promised counter-offensive, but in the event of a breakthrough, more significant forces could be transferred to the site. This could be like the localized counteroffensive in Bakhmut’s flanks—territory regained on the initiative of local commanders. Or this could be probing actions, testing out Russia’s defenses and searching for weak spots along the lines. Or it could be a diversion. Which is it? No one knows outside a small group of people in Ukraine.

How Leaders Are Fighting Their Companies' AI Hype Distraction

Here they go again. A plug and play solution to everything, everywhere, every time, requiring no effort, planning or disruption, just bigger budgets.

That is the challenge leaders face as their customers, employees and boards of directors answer "generative AI' whenever they are asked how to meet the future. Smart and successful leadership recognizes the key to implementation which delivers goals is measurable performance based on operational improvement of existing organizations. JL

Eric Siegel reports in Harvard Business Review:

Even before ChatGPT and other generative AI tools the narrative about all-powerful AI goes too far. It inflates expectations and distracts from the precise way ML will improve business operations. ML projects often lack focus on their value - how ML will render business processes more effective. ML projects that keep operational objectives front and center stand a good chance of achieving that objective. Improving measurable performance is supervised machine learning. Practical use cases of ML are designed to improve the efficiencies of existing business operations and innovate in straightforward ways. This includes resisting the temptation to ride hype waves.

Ukraine's Bakhmut Attacks Continue To Cost Russia Men and Equipment

The battle for Bakhmut is not over. It has evolved. 

The Ukrainians are no longer on the defensive. They are attacking the Russian army's Bakhmut flanks to weaken Kremlin forces' positions in anticipation of the counteroffensive. And to prevent them from having any rest in which to reorganize, especially as Wagner withdraws and elite Russian are forced to waste themselves picking up the slack. JL 

Mstyslav Chernov and Jamey Keaten report in the AP:

Ukraine wants to weigh down Russian forces and capture the initiative ahead of the counteroffensive, part of  “shaping operations” to set the terms of the battle and put the enemy in a defensive, reactive posture. “The goal in Bakhmut is not Bakhmut itself, which has been turned into ruins." The goal for the Ukrainians is to hold on to the western heights and maintain a defensive arc outside the city. Russian airborne forces are replacing the departing Wagner troops - a step that “antagonized” the airborne leadership - who see (it) as a further erosion of their “previously elite status. And they may not hold on to Bakhmut, (so) the whole thing may end up being for nothing.”

The Significance of Ukrainian Attacks On Distant Russian Supply Hubs

With Sevastopol in Crimea now problematic due to Ukrainian attacks, the Russian military relied increasingly on Berdyansk, which is further from the front lines and ostensibly beyond the range of Ukrainian missiles. 

That was until a few weeks ago when the UK gave Ukraine Storm Shadow missiles which have a range of 155 miles. Now one of the key ports supporting Russian troops is under attack, causing ships docked there to leave and others to be rerouted even further from the front. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

Located 60 miles from the front lines, Berdyansk is the latest example of long-distance targets Ukraine can now hit. It is an important logistics and supply hub, providing materiel for Russian troops in the region. This is the fourth attack on the port city in the past few weeks. The strike was likely carried out by U.K.-provided Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. Several Russian ships docked at the port made a hasty departure as a result of the attack. Key logistic and supply nodes far from the front lines will be attacked by Ukraine as it continues to shape the battlefield ahead of its counteroffensive.

The Reason AI-Generated Fake Content Is Increasing Misinformation

AI makes it easier and faster to generate real-looking but fake and misleading content. 

This increases the risk of rumor, inuendo and a misinformed public, leading to badly disruptive decisions and resource allocation. JL 

Stuart Thompson reports in the New York Times:

Dozens of fringe news websites, content farms and fake reviewers are using artificial intelligence to create inauthentic content online. The misleading A.I. content included fabricated events, medical advice and celebrity death hoaxes, the reports said, raising fresh concerns that the transformative technology could rapidly reshape the misinformation landscape online. The websites were often littered with ads, suggesting that the inauthentic content was produced to drive clicks and fuel advertising revenue for the websites' owners.

How Ongoing Ukrainian/Russian Insurgent Cross-Border Attacks Cause Chaos, Weaken Defenses

The cross-border attacks by Ukraine-supported Russian insurgents are creating significant strategic opportunities for Ukraine.

Russia is now facing the reality that its border is undefended. As a result it is having to shuffle forces preparing for the Ukrainian counteroffensive back to fight the insurgents. This means that there are fewer troops along the occupied line of defense, and, given the need to move troops and equipment through a few logistical hubs, why long range rocket strikes are targeting those centers behind Russian lines, damaging both counteroffensive defensive preparations as well as additional troops in transit. This is both opportunistic, adaptive - and strategic genius. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

The Russian Volunteer Corps/Freedom of Russia Legion operation on Russian territory (is) drawing more Russian forces to the Belgorod region (as) it continues. Belgorod (is) becoming a grey zone – people have abandoned houses, regional administration and police are no longer functioning, thieves are looting. Russian police and border guards turned out to be incapable of protecting the border, which is why Russians are resorting to shelling, wiping out their own towns because they are unable to push insurgents out of Russian territory. Russia conducted air and artillery strikes and deployed a motorized rifle battalion. This means Russian defense in Ukraine is becoming weaker, but also that logistical hubs are now full of military personnel and equipment that Ukrainians can destroy while they are still in transit.

Ukraine's NATO-Trained Units Prepare To Be Tip of the Counteroffensive Spear

Ukraine's assault units have been trained not just how to use their new NATO weapons, but how to operate with others - artillery, armor, air force and special forces. While the previous article posted suggests more of such training is needed, it has not been ignored.

This has given them a better understanding of the larger context of the battle they will be fighting and of how their efforts create opportunities for breaking the Russians. As a result, many of these units will lead the attack. JL

Isabelle Khurshudyan and Kamila Hrabchuk report in the Washington Post:

When Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive finally begins, the fight will be led by brigades armed not only with Western weapons but also Western know-how, gleaned from months of training aimed at transforming Ukraine’s military into a modern force skilled in NATO’s most advanced warfare tactics. The brigade’s leadership trained with computers that simulated situations they might face in real life, planning assaults, then let the program show them the results — how their Russians might respond, where they could make a breakthrough and where they would suffer losses. Whole Ukrainian units have been sent to Germany to learn “interoperability among different units.”

What Ukraine Needs To Do To Win After the Counteroffensive

Ukraine has fought an existential fight for survival and come out ahead. It has superior weapons from committed allies, a battle-hardened soldiery and officer corps exhibiting determination, resilience, creativity, adaptibility, all under smart leadership. 

The remaining building blocks for achieving the nation's goals in this war are more intangible than tangible. They have the tanks, guns and drones. What is now required is the training and coordination to win at scale rather than in localized engagements against a depleted and demoralized enemy. There will not be time for this before the counteroffensive kicks off, but to sustain their military and country, moving out from under the Soviet system will be crucial. JL 

Eric Kramer and Paul Schneider report in War On the Rocks:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have performed admirably but need to refocus their training and operations on combined arms operations and to become adept at operating at night. Ukraine is in an existential fight for its existence, and interservice rivalry needs be set aside. History has repeatedly shown how a well-trained and properly led military can beat a poorly trained army.  The challenging part is changing the mentality of senior leaders who have spent decades in the Soviet system to a mission command philosophy that allows for flexibility and initiative with the understanding that it will not result in a disaster or a prison sentence but rather battlefield victory.