Euromaidan Press reports:
Krasnohorivka southwest of Donetsk, had been under Russian control since 2014. The Ukrainian Defense Forces have officially confirmed the liberation of (it). Ukrainian assault units advanced unexpectedly. Over the past week, the Russian army has been trying to drive the Ukrainian military out of their newly captured positions, conducting daily assaults and heavy shelling attacks. “This has a symbolic meaning for us and improvement in the tactical situation.”
Whatever the reason, and just as Tsar Nicholas discovered in 1917, support for Putin is not deep or secure. He may yet prevail, but he has exposed fissures in his country that may never heal while he remains even ostensibly in charge. Between all those who fled to avoid serving in the war, all those who lost loved ones - and all those who have lost money - Prigozhin's uprising has exposed a desire for change which may yet become an internal war. JL
Anne Applebaum reports in The Atlantic:
In a slow, unfocused way, Russia is sliding into what can only be described as a civil war. For years, Putin has blamed his country’s troubles on America, Europe, NATO. He concealed the weaknesses of his country and its army behind a facade of bluster, arrogance, and appeals to a phony “white Christian nationalism” and imperialist patriotism. The Russian military launched a pointless war, ran it incompetently, and killed tens of thousands of Russian soldiers unnecessarily. Now he is facing a movement that lives by the moral code of Russia’s professional criminal caste. Prigozhin is cynical, brutal, and violent. He and his men are motivated by money and self-interest.
The question is why they feel such pressure to use a tool whose unreliability is becoming legendary in their profession. Or maybe legal education just aint what it used to be. JL
Jon Brodkin reports in ars technica:
A federal judge tossed a lawsuit and issued a $5,000 fine to the plaintiff's lawyers after they used ChatGPT to research court filings that cited six fake cases invented by the AI tool. The lawyers "abandoned their responsibilities when they submitted non-existent judicial opinions with fake quotes and citations created by the artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT, then continued to stand by the fake opinions after judicial orders called their existence into question," US District Judge Kevin Castel wrote yesterday. The lawyers "advocated for the fake cases and legal arguments" even "after being informed by their adversary's submission that their citations were non-existent and could not be found."
The Ukrainians are advancing on multiple fronts to test weakened defenses as the various Russian factions realign out of distrust for each other. Further successes have been reported around Bakhmut, where Wagner has long had the lead. JL
The Independent reports:
Ukrainian forces are advancing in East Ukraine and have vowed to take advantage of an unfolding “civil war” in Russia. Ukrainian commanders are “maximising” the extraordinary implosion of military leadership in Russia to push forward with their counter-offensive. Soldiers on the ground said overnight they had already advanced on Bakhmut. Ukraine had long waited for Russia’s “irregular”’ reliance on mercenaries to backfire. “We predicted this would happen. “We have been saying for a long time that Russia is on the path to civil war and now we are seeing this unfold in real-time. We can seize parts of the front faster. We had a productive night."
But in this instance, the enmity between Wagner and the regular Russian military became too great - and the enemies too well-armed. While it is not yet clear Prigozhin can prevail, even the emergence of a challenge like this weakens Putin because it undermines perceptions of his power. JL
Anton Troianovski reports in the New York Times:
For the past few months, as the mercenary chieftain Yevgeny V. Prigozhin escalated his feud with the Russian military, Mr. Putin did not publicly reveal any discomfort. The silence fostered political ambiguity that has long been a trademark of Mr. Putin’s rule: a management style in which he appeared comfortable with conflicts among the elite because they kept potential rivals in check, while underscoring that ultimate authority always rested with. It allowed him to entrust key tasks to a trusted inner circle while preventing the rise of rival cliques that could undermine him.Now that approach has backfired.
But the response of the military to this order has been uneven - with some attacking the Wagner troops but some simply moving out of the way - suggesting that Russian units are waiting to see who emerges as the most likely to win and revealing a lack of deep support for Putin. JL
Yaroslav Trofimov reports in the Wall Street Journal:
Wagner troops, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin took over the main military headquarters for southern Russia, in Rostov, and other installations there, encountering no resistance from regular armed forces. Putin said Saturday he ordered his military to act against the Wagner group that seized the southern Russian city of Rostov. As Wagner columns moved toward Moscow Saturday, they were attacked by Russian aircraft in the Voronezh region, some 300 miles south of the capital. Videos from the area showed the city of Voronezh’s main fuel depot ablaze, a Ka-52 helicopter destroying a vehicle, and another helicopter narrowly escaping a Wagner antiaircraft missile. A Russian plane was also shot down.
Ukraine is targeting Russian artillery - and doing so more effectively due to NATO training and weapons (including digital counter-battery radars) because that is the quickest way to weaken Russian defenses and demoralize its troops. JL
Kos reports in Daily Kos, image Zohra Bensemra, Reuters:
Russia's is an artillery-based army. Early in the war, Ukrainian defenders and cities were under relentless artillery bombardment, yet unable to strike back at the guns and rocket launchers. Over time, Ukraine developed better counter-battery fire. Counter-battery radars helped locate guns; drones pin-pointed their position; and longer-ranged Western precision artillery shells, HIMARS, and M270 rocket launchers became a deadly response. Increased killing of those Russian guns (means) Ukraine 371 tube and MLRS artillery kills, double their previous average. The result is mass attrition of Russia’s greatest resource. The more Ukraine degrades Russia’s artillery, the easier it will be to break through Russian lines.
Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt report in the New York Times:
They are already making their mark, using American-made Bradley fighting vehicles to destroy Russian armor with anti-tank missiles. They are fighting more effectively at night than their Russian counterparts And they are deploying combined arms tactics they learned from Western troops. Bradleys and German-supplied Leopard tanks can identify and attack Russian targets in darkness at longer ranges than the Russians. The difference is even more acute now that Russia is using older, less capable tanks after many of its newer, more advanced versions were destroyed in earlier battles.
In addition, people also tend to more easily forget the bad. Both of these inclinations have contributed to the false narrative that people were nicer or more moral in the past than in the present, even if the data show otherwise. JL
Sigal Samuel reports in Vox:
In this century, surveys have shown that people in at least 60 countries around the globe believe that morality is declining, that humanity is becoming less kind and ethical over time. But that is an illusion. Cooperation rates have increased by 10% over the past six decades. People believe it is because humans pay more attention to negative information than to positive information, and the media reinforces that tendency. (And) when people think of positive and negative events from the past, they’re more likely to forget the negative ones or misremember them in a positive light. The negative events are also more likely to lose their emotional potency over time.
This reaffirms previous NATO impressions of Ukrainian forces' capabilities and bodes well as the counteroffensive advances. JL
Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:
Russia spent months building up defensive positions within Ukrainian territory it controls. Even with weapons like tanks, drones, and artillery, Ukraine will rely on its infantry to take the risks of assaulting and clearing trenches. Footage published by Ukraine's special operations forces this week shows their troops storming a Russian trench and engaging in close-quarters fighting. "The Ukrainians' level of proficiency, they do everything right," said the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point who reviewed the video and was 'significantly impressed." Clearing trenches is something the Ukrainian military is rehearsing so soldiers are capable of doing it without thinking twice about it.
That does not mean he won't use tactical nukes in the event of a Russian collapse on the front, but he is more likely signalling to NATO and his own people that he remains in charge, no matter what. JL
Tom Nichols reports in The Atlantic, image Evgeny Maloletka, AP:
The Ukrainians are making progress in their counteroffensive while the Russian president is talking like a gangster and rattling the nuclear saber—again. Putin has often used this tone when he’s trying to project strength, especially to his own people. Kyiv’s forces are making incremental but concrete gains along the front. The Ukrainians are, for the moment, calm and confident; the Russians less so. Although we should keep an eye on Russian nukes, the real news will be whether the Ukrainians can break through Russian lines. The likely story is one of Ukrainian progress measured by small villages and the coordinates of grid squares on a map.
Kelsey Piper reports in Vox:
When first released, AI systems like ChatGPT gave detailed, correct instructions about how to carry out a biological weapons attack or build a bomb. Open AI has corrected this. But a class exercise at MIT found it was easy for undergraduates without background in biology to get detailed suggestions for biological weaponry out of AI systems. “In one hour, the chatbots suggested four pandemic pathogens, explained how they can be generated from synthetic DNA using reverse genetics, supplied the names of DNA synthesis companies unlikely to screen orders, identified protocols and how to troubleshoot them." “We need better controls.”
Asami Terajima reports in the Kyiv Independent:
After months of being on the defensive, Ukrainian forces are taking the initiative and conducting counterattacks on Bakhmut. Ukraine had more success south of Bakhmut, rather than in the north – an open field where every movement is easily detected. Russia has become “less flexible in reacting to operational changes” after deploying its elite troops to Bakhmut, such as its airborne forces. Ukrainian soldiers believe the city served its goal – grinding down Russia’s offensive capability that it could otherwise use elsewhere.
The Ukrainians have adapted - again - by bringing forward more NATO landmine clearing systems. JL
Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:
Russia is pouring everything into defending an area ahead of its defensive line. It’s stripping local areas of resources in the effort, making it unclear exactly who will be available to defend those lines when Ukraine reaches them. Russian forces did regroup at Zherebyanky, and they did launch an attempt to retake Pyatykhatky, (which) failed disastrously. The road between the two villages became a scrap yard. Not only was Ukraine still in possession of Pyatykhatky, they were forming up to attack Zherebyanky. The density of mines in the area (is) surprising even to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian military seems to be saying, “Don’t risk a disaster. Take it slow. Take it carefully.”
Cassandra Vingrad reports in the New York Times:
Kyiv’s military had struck a bridge connecting the rest of Ukraine to occupied Crimea. The Chonhar bridge connects the peninsula to the Kherson region of southern Ukraine. The Crimean Peninsula has increasingly become a target of attacks, although Ukraine typically maintains a policy of not explicitly claiming responsibility for strikes there. Videos and photographs show damage to both bridges that run across the Chonhar Strait between Crimea and the Kherson region.
Which suggests they may be better informed than those western observers worried about Ukrainian forces' progress. JL
Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:
Russian occupiers in the southern Kherson region are telling locals where to evacuate in the event of a breakthrough by Kyiv. In Henichesk, a port city along the Sea of Azov in the Kherson region, "collaborators received SMS messages with detailed instructions and coordinates of evacuation points." This information is causing "panic." Russia has been building defensive lines in rear areas, especially on the approaches between Kherson and Crimea. Building such defenses suggests Moscow considers Ukrainian forces capable of directly assaulting Crimea.
Armor, artillery and infantry are working in concert to dislodge the Russian defenders and their efforts in this area are working. JL
Serge Havrylets reports in Euromaidan Press:
Intense shelling of Russian positions was a part of the preparation for the Ukrainian assault between Piatykhatky and Zherebianky. This attack allowed Ukrainians to cut off Russian forces from support and set conditions for their encirclement in and around Zherebianky. They used UR-77 demining systems on the approaches to Piatykhatky, eliminating Russian troops. Ukrainians then identified Russian pockets of resistance and used their artillery to suppress Russian fire. Russian forces attempted to launch a powerful mechanized counterattack (but) Ukrainians fire control over the main Russian roads spotted the Russian column, destroying tanks and armored fighting vehicles.
The major question now playing out on the battlefields of the country's east and south is which has done the more complete job. Russia has fallen back on its defensive expertise, honed from Napoleon's 1812 invasion and exemplified by Stalin's defeat of the Nazis at Kursk in 1943, the largest tank and artillery battle in human history. But Ukraine has demonstrated time and again in this war that it can out-think and out-fight the Russians, using new weapons and tactics, as well as the determination of its troops and commanders. Now it must execute the strategy its new equipment and training was prepared for this purpose. JL
Daniel Michaels and Isabel Coles report in the Wall Street Journal:
Kyiv’s troops are attempting a feat few modern militaries would dare: dislodge Russian troops that have spent months digging themselves in and readying for Ukraine’s long telegraphed onslaught. The fight unfolding now, a slugfest on the battlefield, is more fundamentally a battle of readiness. Both sides since the middle of last year have been mustering weapons, troops and defensive positions for what they knew would be a pivotal moment.
Francesca Ebel and David Stern report in the Washington Post:
Fighting simmered in key pockets across the long front line as Ukrainian forces continued their push to oust occupying Russian troops.There was “heavy fighting” along some parts of the front and that 45 combat clashes had occurred in the previous 24 hours. Moscow may have diverted resources and troops from the southern Kherson region after the collapse of the Kakhovka dam, where the resulting floods appear to have altered Kyiv’s plans to advance in the south.
Those expectations may have been unrealistic to begin with, but Ukrainian commanders have demonstrated a core strength of their leadership throughout this war, which is the ability to adapt to circumstances in order to avoid threats - and take advantage of opportunities - achieve their goals. JL
RO37 reports in Daily Kos:
If there is one thing that has defined the Ukrainian Army, it has been adaptability. Ukraine has made tactical adjustments (and) has fed more and more of its best and brigades into an attack to the east at Velyka Novosilka, shifting the weight of its attack a few km. Velyka Novosilka represents a 100km detour to strike Tokmak from the east, but the defenses in this area in density and depth are vastly lighter than the Tokmak area. (And it) appears to have made some tweaks to how it is positioning its anti-air resources.
What is of particular note to investors is that these developers, arguably the best positioned to identify best current uses as well as future improvements see productivity and collaboration as the opportunities most likely to generate added value for the industry, suggesting that these may be the most strategically optimal loci for outcomes and financial returns. JL
Victor Dey reports in Venture Beat:
92% of (software) developers already use AI-powered coding tools in their work. AI has the potential to significantly enhance the developer experience including expediting code delivery, enhance team collaboration, improve code quality, speed project completion and improve incident resolution. Developers collaborate with an average of 21 engineers on projects, making collaborative skills important in to drive impact. “Collaboration is the force multiplier to drive customer results." Integrating AI-powered coding tools into workflow improves performance. “AI tools will soon become table stakes. Having (them) will become an expectation. To hire and retain top talent, they need the best tools to make developers more productive.”
Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:
Russia’s top-tier helicopter gunship, the $16 million Ka-52 Alligator, is being knocked down from skies above Ukraine at a pace of better than an aircraft a day. Ukrainian air defense force operators from June 16 to 19 brought down five Kamaz Ka-52 attack helicopters. Stocks of the NATO hand-held anti-aircraft missile, the Stinger, are low levels, but (Ukraine now has) the AIM-9 Sidewinder missile is widely used in NATO air forces. Its maximum range is above 30 kilometers: about three times the range of the Ka-52’s long-range anti-tank missile.
That an extremely powerful new technology - generative AI - may now be emerging only fuels the fears of the majority that this is just another way to screw the little guy so that the Zucks, Musks, Bezos' and others of that world can impose their views and economic imperatives to their own advantage. And, as the saying goes, just because you're paranoid does not mean they're not out to get you. JL
Will Heaven reports in MIT Technology Review:
We've been here before: AI doom follows AI hype. But this time feels different. “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” What were once extreme views are now mainstream talking points, grabbing not only headlines but the attention of world leaders. “With AI being so powerful, it seems likely that it will also lead to massive problems.” At the heart of such concerns is the question of control: How do humans stay on top if (or when) machines get smarter?
The mobilization has taken 300,000 men who could not really be spared while the threat of conscription caused as many as twice that number to emigrate. The result is severe shortages of workers in most Russian industries. JL
Georgi Kantchev reports in the Wall Street Journal:
The war in Ukraine has fueled Russia’s worst labor crunch in decades after hundreds of thousands of workers fled the country or were sent to the front lines, weakening the foundations of an economy weighed down by sanctions and international isolation. Two waves of emigration last year, the largest since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the mobilization of 300,000 men have exacerbated an already tight labor market, plagued by long-term demographic decline. That has left Russian businesses short of everyone from programmers and engineers to welders and oil drillers, professions needed to boost the economy and support the war in Ukraine.
The question now is where a strategic breakthrough may be achieved in the Russian defenses. JL
Quentin Sommerville reports in the BBC:
Two weeks since the counter-offensive began, Ukraine is making modest but steady progress in three areas of attack. Troops are attacking at three points: Bakhmut, where they are advancing north and south of the city, which remains firmly under Russian control; south of Zaporizhzhia; and in southern Donetsk, where a number of villages have been taken back.
The challenge is that this is the area Russia determined months ago would be the primary focus of the counteroffensive and thus became the most heavily entrenched and defended. Despite that, the Ukrainians are having some success, but have adapted - as they have repeatedly shown they can do - to overcome the obstacle. JL
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
The Ukrainians have moved to a tactic of engage and destroy. Make small advances (though much quicker than the Russians made around Bakhmut), bring Russian forces out to stop them, and use this opportunity to destroy the Russians. They will have to do this until Russian forces are so weak that a more significant advance can occur. Its good that Russia is throwing its most advanced systems into the fight (such as helicopters because) without control of the air and unable to make fast advances because of the vulnerability of its own forces, the Ukrainians are going to have to chew through a great deal of Russian equipment and soldiery. The more they can destroy of the best Russian strength now, the better chances for a successful counteroffensive down the road.
Igor Kossov reports in the Kyiv Independent:
After Russia’s attacks from late winter into mid-to-late spring didn’t make significant gains, Ukraine hopes to use Russia’s stalled drive to regain momentum and take back swathes of territory. Compared to Wagner, the Russian Defense Ministry’s troops have a “much lower preparedness and worse capabilities.” Regular forces and Donbas proxies exchange unencrypted coordinates and intercepted communication reveals drunkenness and soldiers listening to music at forward positions. And the Russians’ overwhelming artillery advantage over the Ukrainians appears to be shrinking. Russian artillery shell expenditures once dwarfed Ukrainians’ but now, they’re approaching parity.
Matthew Bigg and Neil MacFarquhar report in the New York Times:
Ukrainian forces have retaken a village in the south of the country, one of the first reports of a territorial gain in the Zaporizhzhia region. A large Ukrainian force was making a sustained attempt to break through Russia’s defensive lines. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has intensified the fighting at several points along the front line in the south. Making it harder for Russia, Ukraine has launched strikes behind the front lines that target ammunition dumps, military infrastructure and other elements of Moscow’s war machine. Ukraine struck an ammunition dump near the village of Rykove, in the Kherson region
But as leaders can and should know, the past is not necessarily predictive of the future and nothing lasts forever. JL
Alex Kantrowitz reports in Slate:
Almost immediately after Jeff Bezos handed Amazon to Andy Jassy in July 2021, the trouble began. His record’s been marked by 27,000 layoffs, a rush to streamline operations, slowing cloud growth, and questions about the company’s focus. Amazon stock is up 48% this year, but down 30% since Jassy took over. The company had been soaring post-pandemic, bolstered by e-commerce and the cloud, but a return to in-person life and a broad tech drawback changed it all fast. After Amazon’s retail business grew 39% in 2020, it doubled its fulfillment footprint. Amazon was stuck with excess space and costs. AWS’ customers (also) believed that growth was inevitable, and higher levels of services were worth the cost. No longer. As interest rates rose, companies looked for places to cut.
General Ben Hodges, US Army (Retired) reports in the Washington Post:
So far, it appears that the Ukrainians are still probing for vulnerabilities they can exploit and reinforcing local tactical successes. As a result, a few villages have been liberated, and about 100 square kilometers of territory have been recaptured. We will know the main attack has started when we see large groupings of armored forces — two or three armored brigades attacking in one direction.
The Ukrainians have been opportunistic and adaptive throughout the war. This will be interesting. JL
Kos reports in Daily Kos:
Russia has retreated from Pyatykhatky, which would mean they are finally falling back to their first line of defense in this axis. Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam opens up an intriguing new possibility, as entire swaths of former reservoir empty out. A new approach seems to be opening up south that bypasses Russia’s meticulously prepared defensive lines. This will extend the active front, as what was once an impassable reservoir will revert to that original Dnipro river. Would be ironic if Russia’s bizarre decision to blow the damn doesn’t just cost their precious Crimea its water supply, but also allows Ukraine to bypass many of their defenses.
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As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance.
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