A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 8, 2023

Russia Transfers Troops From Donetsk To South Ukraine As Reserves Squandered

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to press Russian defenses, new reports reveal that Russia has squandered most of what would have been its operational reserve.

This means that when Ukraine forces achieve any sort of breakthrough, there will be few or no reserve units to stop them, a situation for Russian defenders which NATO refers to as 'brittle,' meaning likely to break. JL 

Kaitlin Lewis reports in Newsweek:

Reports that Russia's military has repositioned nearly all of its eastern forces along the front lines in southern Ukraine may be a sign that its troops are "brittle," including along the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. Some Russian eastern forces have been redirected to battles south of Bakhmut. "Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, while formidable, are not insurmountable. Russian forces in southern Ukraine have to fall back on prepared defensive positions without significant support from operational reserves if Ukrainian forces achieved a breakthrough."

Ukraine Contimues To Make "Tactically Significant" Gains Around Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces continue to gain territory in the Bakhmut area despite determined Russian opposition. 

It appears that Russia is focusing its defensive efforts in the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, hoping its troops around Bakhmut can stall if not stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive there. JL 

Oleksandra Vaskulina reports in EuroNews:

Ukrainian forces have liberated a total of 37.4 square kilometres in eastern and southern Ukraine in the past week. Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on tactics that preserve manpower at the expense of slower territorial gains but the current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or that Ukraine cannot retake large areas. It is advancing at a similar rate to the successful Kherson counteroffensive – (in which) progress also was slow (initially).

Why Businesses Are Beginning To Drown In Too Much AI

Tech companies are rushing to cash in on the boom in generative AI but are being met by increasingly wary customers, suspicious of old products on which vendors have haphazardly slapped new software, calling it AI. 

The rash of new offerings is causing confusion for executives, boards and employees who are worried about getting in too soon before proper safeguards have been installed - and probably before the most effective new features have been invented and vetted. The result is that, perhaps, this time, the tech hype cycle is working against itself for a change. JL

Isabelle Bousquette reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Businesses face an influx of new AI tools, many of which overlap and cause confusion for employees, as technology sellers race to capitalize on generative AI. “Since the ChatGPT excitement, I must have had at least 20 to 25 vendors reach out to me saying, ‘Hey, let us tell you about our generative AI co-pilot strategy.’” IT sellers feel pressure to move into generative AI or risk falling behind, meaning some features (are) rushed out without proper privacy and security guardrails. “Everyone’s trying to fit it in everywhere, (but) it’s not a coat of paint you put on your product afterwards and say, now it’s AI.”

Ukraine's Attacks On Russian Command Posts Are Devastating Its Performance

Russian command posts crammed with electronics, vehicles and supplies are increasingly obvious targets which Ukrainian forces have hit to devastating effect. 

The result has forced Russia to pull its CPs back 75 miles from the front, reducing their effectiveness. NATO has noticed and is planning to move most such operations from physical locations to the cloud. JL 

Michael Peck reports in Business Insider:

Ukraine's success in destroying Russian command posts illustrates that the most vulnerable part of an army is its brain. Disrupt its command and control, and even strong units becomes helpless. Command posts are nodes packed with electronic equipment and are hubs for vehicle traffic, giving them a distinct electronic and physical footprint. Last fall, Ukrainian strikes hit Russian CPs at least 22 times and killed the commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army. This may be a major reason for the poor performance of Russian troops in Ukraine. "Ukrainians are dismantling enemy command-and-control through targeting," These attacks undercuts Russian-command efficiency. Russian HQs were pulled 75 miles from the front lines, which "imposed significant challenges on Russian forces"

Ukraine Has Severely Degraded Russia's Artillery, Which Has No Backup Plan

Russia's artillery has been significantly degraded by increasingly accurate Ukrainian counterbattery fires as well as targeting by longer range rockets and missiles. This is creating shortages amongst Russia's premier combat arm, which have been exacerbated by declining sources of ammunition and military-grade hardened steel.

The result is that Russia is increasingly relying on mortars which have much shorter range than howitzers and are less accurate. Russia did not expect the war to last this long, nor did it anticipate losing so much fighting capability so quickly. NATO experts see no evidence of a backup plan as China is reluctant to risk sanctions on its struggling economy, North Korea's weapons quality is weak and Iran uses drones and missiles rather than artillery. JL

RO37 reports in Daily Kos:

There are growing signs that Russia has already fallen back to its last practical artillery option, and likely has no backup plan. Counterbattery fire and 16 months of conflict are degrading the capabilities of Russia’s artillery. Russia has run through stock of replacement barrels, keeping its 152 mm artillery fielded by cannibalizing parts from older towed howitzers. Russia is throwing 1959-era siege mortars into a modern battlefield that requires shoot-and-scoot tactics. Those guns are being destroyed at a rapid clip. Russian towed mortar crews are also slow to deploy and highly vulnerable to counterbattery fire. Russia’s relative disadvantage may get worse if Ukraine receives cluster munitions.

Ukrainian Forces Advance on Main Russian Logistics Hub For Donetsk

Ukrainian forces continue to advance steadily in Donetsk, despite determined Russian opposition. 

Troops at the front report that Ukrainian bombardment of Russian logistics centers is beginning to show in terms of lower artillery volumes and of Russian troops conducting tactical withdrawals as they run out of ammunition. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

After starving out Russians in Rivnopil, Donetsk Oblast, and forcing them to retreat, the next target of the Ukrainian assault units became Pryyutne, which serves as the main logistical hub responsible for the stability of the entire region. Ukrainians are preparing to penetrate Russian defenses around Pryyutne and collapse the front line located almost in the center of the next elevated platform. Russian forces responded to these developments by conducting a series of airstrikes. Nonetheless, Ukrainians continued advancing.

Jul 7, 2023

Ukraine Is Repairing the Vehicles Damaged Crossing A Russian Minefield In June

The effort reveals not only that many of the vehicles are repairable - but that the Ukrainians have advanced so far in their counteroffensive that the site of one of their worst setbacks is now far enough in their rear - and safe enough - for this operation to be successfully undertaken. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The Ukrainian army has recovered some of the tanks, fighting and engineering vehicles it lost trying to cross a minefield on June 8. The effort tells us Ukrainian forces have advanced far enough from Mala Tokmachka through Robotyne toward Tokmak that it’s safe for recovery teams to work (and) that some of the vehicles lost including M-2 infantry fighting vehicles, Leopard 2A6 tanks and Leopard 2R engineering vehicles are repairable. Attacking at night and at long range - conditions that favor the Leopard 2A6s’ long gun, high-end optics and TOW anti-tank missiles on the M-2s - the brigades remained in the fight, found (their) way through or around the minefield and marched south.

Ukrainian Forces Appear To Be On Verge Of Retaking Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces are advancing in virtually all directions around Bakhmut, suggesting that they are about to retake control of the former city which is now smoking rubble pile.

Though Bakhmut itself is strategically insignificant as a locale, the Ukrainians' progress there reveals success which may bode well for the counteroffensive. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

The Institute for the Study of War said geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops had advanced northwest, north and southwest of Bakhmut. "Russian troops abandoned the key outpost at Klishchiivka and Bakhmut was "under fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" as well as "under the threat of assault. It is just a matter of time until Ukrainian forces overrun Bakhmut, as reflected in advances already made by their forces in key areas surrounding the city."  Ukraine's recapture of the city would be a major boost to Kyiv's counteroffensive. "Success in Bakhmut is likely to further cement Western support for Kyiv and is yet another sign that Putin's position is greatly weakened."

The Reason Ukraine Is Prepared For Attacks From Wagner Troops In Belarus

Belarus' leader ostensibly played a role in ending the Wagner mutiny in Russia, despite reports that he is regarded with contempt by Russian leaders. Part of the negotiated settlement was offering Belarus as a place of refuge for Wagner fighters and their founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin. 

One could imagine a deal in which Putin offered Prigozhin and his troops clemency if they promised to attack Ukraine from Belarus, effectively opening a new front to distract Ukrainian forces. As of today, Prigozhin is reportedly back in Russia, a possibility unthinkable two weeks ago, but plausible if Wagner troops are planning to attack. None of this has escaped Ukrainian attention and they are prepared for the eventuality, should it occur. JL

Megan Specia reports in the New York Times:

Russia continues to use Belarus as a training ground for its forces and to launch airstrikes on Ukraine. There are no Russian offensive units in Belarus (but) has offered refuge to Wagner group mercenaries after their failed rebellion in Russia. Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the Kremlin-aligned autocratic leader of Belarus, invited members of the Wagner group to relocate to an “abandoned” military base in his country. New satellite imagery shows that more than 250 tents, enough to house thousands of troops, have been erected in the past five days at an unused base.

Why the US Is Now Willing To Provide Cluster Munitions To Ukraine

There are three primary reasons why the US is now willing to provide Ukraine with controversial cluster munitions. 

First, the Russians have already used them widely, even in urban areas around civilian targets. Second, the US hasn't used them since 2003 and has a lot of them in storage. Third, they will be especially effective against the heavy Russian defensive lines in Ukraine. A fourth, largely unspoken reason, is that give the scope of Russian atrocities in Ukraine, no one feels especially concerned or guilty about using these munitions against Russian troops. JL 

Tara Copp and Lolita Baldor report in the Associated Press:

Kyiv needs to fire 7,000 to 9,000 rounds daily in intensified counteroffensive fighting. Providing that many puts pressure on U.S. and allied stocks. The cluster bomb is an attractive option because it would help Ukraine destroy more targets with fewer rounds, and since the U.S. hasn’t used them in conflict since Iraq, it has large amounts of them in storage it can access quickly. Russian forces have used cluster bombs in Ukraine on a number of occasions, including in urban areas. “Cluster munitions are effective because they inflict damage over a wider area. This is important for Ukraine as they try to clear heavily fortified Russian positions.”

Ukraine Is Using Long Range Weapons To Destroy Russian Lines, Logistics

The Ukrainians are using artillery, rockets and other accurate long range weaponry to degrade both Russian frontline defenses and rear area logistics in order to wear down the enemy troops waiting in prepared positions. 

The goal is to reduce the initial defenses while also eliminating as much ammunition and many supplies as possible in order to wear down the defenders as Ukrainian troops advance. JL 

Ian Lovett reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian forces are using long-range Western weapons to hit Russian supply lines deep in occupied territory. They are also trying to degrade the first lines of Moscow’s defenses along the front using cheaper weaponry to hit Russian artillery pieces, ammunition depots and electronic jammers, and mapping which fields are mined. They have also continued probing attacks. "We’re trying to save troops. It takes time to prepare the ground. We need to destroy as much as possible before sending troops in.”

How CDC Is Helping States Reduce Gun Death and Injury By Providing Data

Conservative opposition to any gun safety initiatives led to the passage of the Dickey Amendment which prevents the CDC from doing anything to promote gun control. 

But the rise in gun violence, especially mass shootings - including several this past week around July 4th - led the CDC to begin to share with states public information on shootings. The result has been a reduction in gun murders and injuries as the states begin to identify causes, such as particularly susceptible neighborhoods and evidence that poor gun safety education has caused a rise in gun-related injuries in some states. JL 

Scott Neuman reports in NPR:

The CDC says,"the goal was to address timeliness in firearm injury data at the national level." A public dashboard pulls diagnostic data as well as the age and ethnicity of victims, including the ZIP code where they live. (It) shows an 18% increase in firearms related visits to hospitals. A heat map indicates 11 p.m. is the peak time of day for hospital visits related to firearms injuries. 40% of people in Washington DC who show up at hospitals with nonfatal gun injuries go on to be killed by a firearm. 75% of all unintentional injuries in Utah are to males between the ages of 15 and 44, most of whom accidentally shoot themselves while mishandling or cleaning weapons. "You can't help people killed by gun violence, but you absolutely can help the people who live."

Jul 6, 2023

Ukraine's Infantry and Missile Attacks Collapse Russian Bakhmut Defenses

Ukraine's steady pounding of both Russian front lines and rear area logistics appears to be having a deleterious effect on Russian capabilities to defend its positions around Bakhmut.

The now largely destroyed city and its environs has become one of the most promising axes of Ukraine's counteroffensive. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

The destruction of multiple ammunition depots, equipment, oil depots, and a dozen artillery batteries on a narrow front line created massive short-term problems for the Russians and a decrease in the ability of the Russians to conduct defensive operations. Russian forces had problems deploying their reserves to Klishchiivka,  the most powerful fortification on the Bakhmut front. The Russian command once again seems to be making a grave mistake – prioritizing holding settlements instead of tactical heights around these settlements.

Ukraine Destroys Massive Russian Ammunition Depot Near Donetsk

Contrast with Russia firing cruise missiles at civilian apartment buildingss. JL 

The Kyiv Post reports:

Hundreds of Russian-army green ammunition boxes were piled haphazardly in an abandoned housing complex’s central courtyard. Most of the boxes were sized consistent with packing for the Soviet-era 122mm Grad rocket, an inaccurate and widely-used Russian army weapon. Among the secondary explosions were artillery rockets catching on fire and flying in random directions before detonating, sometimes hundreds of meters from the storage area.

Russia Has Lost Half Its Combat Strength Since Ukraine Invasion

Ukraine's strategy of eroding Russian warfighting capabilities appears to be working, according to latest NATO assessments of the conflict. JL 

Charles Davis reports in Business Insider:

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the formal head of the UK's armed forces who is the chief military advisor to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, told a parliamentary hearing that Russia was now "so weak" that it could no longer wage a military counteroffensive of its own. "Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army. Last year, it fired 10 million artillery shells, but at best, can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and, at best, can produce 200 tanks a year." Radakin said Kyiv's strategy to "starve, stretch, and strike" was eroding Russia's defenses.

Jul 5, 2023

"Rapid" Ukrainian Breakthroughs Reported On Around Donetsk

A number of advances are being reported across the front. The most significant continue to be in the east, around Donetsk and Bakhmut, rather than in the south towards Tokmak, which most experts believe is the primary focus of the counteroffensive. 

The question is how Ukrainian forces might pivot from the east in order to cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Ukrainian forces had made significant progress in the area near the city of Donetsk (which) at least one source has called “rapid.” There might not be any more defensive positions between the point Ukraine reached and western Donetsk. As Ukrainian forces continue to make advances around Bakhmut, the commander of the eastern region says that Russia has reduced forces in the area to around 50,000.

Why Consultants Have Emerged As Generative AI Investment Winners

Venture and other investors need to be aware that potential corporate purchasers of generative AI services do not believe they have the expertise or the budgets to make large commitments to it immediately.

They are hiring third parties to assess the opportunities, threats and costs so they do not waste money on what could be an expensive long term commitment. Investors need to understand how global IT consultants are advising the corporations who will ultimately become the ultimate drivers of this market as well as how to address the needs that the consultants are identifying. In doing so, the VCs will be able to better make their own investments in order to optimize returns. JL

Angus Loten reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Rather than commit to costly projects, corporate tech chiefs are exploring (how they) may benefit most from generative AI. Tech consultants are emerging as early beneficiaries of the generative AI boom, as companies are eager to put ChatGPT-like capabilities to work but lack the expertise to do so. Demand for outside help with generative AI is driving up the IT consulting market. In the U.S., IT consulting revenue this year is expected to grow 4% year-over-year to $665.9 billion, from 2% over the past five years. Executives say their companies are a year or more away from deploying generative AI tools, citing barriers such expertise and costs. Companies are seeking help on strategies and business cases, how and where to apply generative AI, or to get their data and digital core in shape

Jul 4, 2023

Why Ukraine Has Not Committed Most Of Its Force To the Counteroffensive

Ukraine is being smart - and sensible. They are not going to commit the bulk of their armored forces until they believe that commitment will lead to a significant breach of Russia's main defensive lines - and then a much wider, strategic breakthrough. 

That objective is worth the wait. JL 

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has found limited success, but until the bulk of its reserve force is committed, it is simply too early to judge. Ukraine objectively needs success in a large-scale counteroffensive; it's the only way to secure the country's freedom long term. However, as its cautious approach has shown, Kyiv won't throw the bulk of its reserves at Russian lines if it assesses the likelihood of success to be very low.

How the Ukrainians Are Winning the Adaptation Battle

As trite as it sounds, the Ukrainian military is a learning organization. Because if it werent, they would all be dead and the Russians would control their country. 

So the Ukrainians have learned from the counteroffensive effort to date, adapting their tactics using men and materiel to avoid Russian traps and take advantage of their weaknesses. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The counteroffensive is revealing the state of the war and the balance between the two armies. Its not determining the outcome of the war, its revealing where we are now. The Ukrainians maintain an advantage in adaptation and learning. (They) have stopped going for the large armored attack, are attacking widely from Bakhmut to Dnipro to spread Russian forces and wear them out. They are making steady progress. 80% of their forces are in reserve and training, learning from the last few weeks, and will perform more effectively when they go into action. The Ukrainians are searching sensibly to find Russian forces using UAVs and infantry. Its mathematical. You must weaken the enemy. The only way to do that is kill Russians and destroy equipment. There is no shortcut

Why the Ukrainians Are Able To Advance Without Air Support, Turning Russian Flank

The Ukrainian army is advancing despite a complete lack of air support and without being able to turn the Russian flank - because to do so would mean attacking through Russia itself given the length of the front line across Ukraine. 

Both of those limitations were imposed by NATO, though the alliance is now permitting the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s which are considered superior to Russian aircraft. That the Ukrainians are succeeding at all is a testament to their training and leadership, as well as their strategic bombardment of Russian logistics which will cause the Russians to run out of supplies, forcing them to retreat. JL

Max Boot reports in the Washington Post:

The Ukrainian task today is more difficult because the Kremlin has mobilized many more men and built many more fortifications and minefields. The Ukrainians don’t have air superiority, and there is no way they can go around Russian fortifications that stretch 600 miles unless they advance through Russia. The Ukrainians are now advancing through thick minefields across flat, open ground toward the main Russian defensive position. The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties - something Russian commanders don’t care about. It is doubtful any Western military could do any better without air superiority.

Ukrainian Initial Offensive Successes Come From Stealth, Ingenuity

Drones and other electronics have made mass frontal attacks, even with overwhelming armor power, too easy to see and stop. 

Instead, the Ukrainian troops have relied on stealth and ingenuity. JL 

Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Yurii Shyvala report in the New York Times:

Ukrainian forces' early string of victories hinged on ingenuity that helped catch the Russian forces off guard. Unlike the mass saturation of artillery fire, Ukraine’s strike incorporated a guided rocket attack by U.S.-supplied HIMARS (that) hit Russian headquarters. Instead of using tanks, which could easily be seen from the air or heard on the ground, the Ukrainians then (advanced) quietly, on foot and in small groups of infantry. Ukrainian troops relied on drone pilots and those monitoring the battle over a video stream to communicate — using Starlink satellite internet — with the artillery battery supporting the attack.

Jul 3, 2023

How Ukraine Conflict Became World War I With High Technology

Technology uniformly offset the advantages of mass nor obviated the need for attrition in order to win. The result is a hybrid form of warfare that is no less challenging or bloody than its predecessors.

This may ultimately work to Ukraine's advantage because of its superiority in both technology, morale, leadership and equipment, but it will not be quick or easy. JL

Shashank Joshi reports in The Economist:

Precision warfare can counter some advantages of mass: Ukraine was outnumbered 12 to one north of Kyiv. It can also complement mass. Software-based targeting saves around 15-30% in shells, according to sources familiar with the data. But what precision cannot do is substitute for mass. The idea behind the Soviet reconnaissance-strike complex or America’s rma was to win by paralysing the enemy, not wearing him down. But there seems to be no escape from attrition. War on the cheap is an illusion. Many people expected Russia’s invasion to be “a second Desert Storm, What we got was a second Iran-Iraq war.”

Russians Using Old T-54 Tanks As Pillboxes With One Soldier Inside

DIY pillboxes. 60 to 80 year old Russian tanks might not be very useful against Leopards and other modern Ukrainian tanks, but they can be effective as do-it-yourself pillboxes to slow the Ukrainian advance, even if crewed by only one Russian. 

His survivability might be low, but then it is no matter where he's positioned. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The Russians need ancient T-54 and T-55 tanks because they’ve lost more than 2,000 modern tanks—and no longer have the luxury of only deploying the best armored vehicles. The Russians are using their oldest tanks mostly as crude artillery. "Engagements can often be made from positions that would not be viable for artillery, because of the tanks’ greater protection and thus reduced vulnerability to counterbattery fire.” If a commander doesn’t expect his old tanks to move on short notice, a solitary loader-gunner-commander might be the only person crewing each of the tanks

The Reason Ukraine Keeps Attacking Around Bakhmut

Russian forces at Bakhmut are less well organized or fortified than in other sectors of the front. The Ukrainian high command sees the potential for a breakthrough there that could potentially destabilize the rest of the Russian defensive line. JL 

RO37 reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is increasing its combat power in areas where it can engage Russian troops not behind fortified lines. As a NATO-trained/-equipped heavy armored brigade, the 21st “Swedish” Mechanized is the highest-profile unit deployed to the eastern front since the start of the counteroffensive. Securing Bakhmut opens a route to advance to the flank; Ukraine could then secure the strategically important rail junction and major city of Donetsk. Bakhmut, where large numbers of Russian troops sit upon freshly captured (and therefore not heavily mined or fortified) territory represents an ideal place for Ukraine to draw out Russian reserves, and destroy them.

Ukrainian Forces Breach Russian Defensive Line At Robotyne

The Ukrainians continue to make incremental progress against Russian defenses along most points of the front line. 

That the Russians have been unable to prevent these advances, let alone counterattack, is a significant achievement and one that has received too little attention. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainians finally confirmed that they breached the last line of defense in front of Robotyne. Since the counteroffensive operation is still in the early stages, and Russians still have not burnt through their accumulated personnel and equipment, Ukrainians found out that the best tactic that ensures that even the freshest and most equipped Russian units break and retreat is continuous assault.

How Top Leaders Prepare Their Organizations To Embrace AI


60% of companies surveyed are using AI tentatively rather than having initiated a full, strategic implementation. There are many reasons for this, including lack of assurance as to how they can best optimize it.

In order to increase AI's impact, leaders have to create the conditions through employees feel comfortable using the technology through experimentation in order to discover the ways it can most effectively enhance enterprise performance. JL 

Jared Spataro reports in Harvard Business Review:

Priming an organization to embrace AI will hinge on culture. Two-thirds of employees surveyed don’t have enough time or energy to do their job. Employees spend 60% of their time communicating, leaving only 40% of their time for creating and innovating. In a world where creativity is the new productivity, digital debt is a liability. With AI, the computer will be more like a copilot, needing to develop a new kind of chemistry, learning when and how to ask questions and the importance of fact-checking responses. Leaders have a responsibility to create the environment for so people are empowered to uncover how AI can fit into workflows, celebrating wins as well as carving out space for people to share knowledge. Value will shift to employees who know how to ask the right questions.

Jul 2, 2023

Ukraine HIMARS Destroy Entire Russian Artillery Battery

The Ukrainians continue their methodical destruction of Russian artillery in order to weaken defenses in front of counteroffensive. JL 

Giulia Carbonaro and Brendan Cole report in Newsweek:

Russia has lost a total of over 790 troops, 10 tanks, 20 armored personnel vehicles (APVs), and 26 artillery systems in the 24 hours between Saturday July 1 and Sunday July 2. Ukrainian artillerymen used HIMARS to destroy a battery of Russian howitzers in the Donetsk region. Drone footage shows explosions and smoke going into the air at the purported locations of the vehicles and what appear to be fleeing troops.

Ukraine Troops Say US Bradley Armored Vehicles Improve Impact, Save Lives

The Bradleys are far stronger than Russian infantry fighting vehicles. Troops inside them are more likely to survive mines, as well as attack by artillery, high caliber machine guns and drones. JL 

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider, image Serhii Nuzhnenko, Reuters:

Ukrainian soldiers say US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles save their lives under attack against Russian forces. Bradleys are stronger than the Soviet-era infantry fighting vehicles. "We were hit multiple times " by a combination of mines, high-caliber guns, and attack drones. "If we were using some Soviet armored personnel carrier we would all be dead after the first hit." They were able to get out of the vehicle and find cover. They later found the Bradley on the battlefield, and drove it away after finding its engine still worked.

How Ukrainians Forces Successfully Assault Russian Lines Around Bakhmut

The Ukrainians' intelligence tells them the Russians left defending the Bakhmut area are weaker than those elsewhere. 

But the resultant successful assaults have required planning, training, psychology - and luck. JL 

Asami Terajima reports in Kyiv Independent:

Enormous planning takes place before every assault operation to ensure minimal casualties. Everything needs to be done as quickly as possible. The longer they take to reach Russian-held positions, the higher the chance that Russian artillery targets them. Psychology is a key factor that defines the success of the assault. Since they work in small groups, it’s crucial that every member can carry out their tasks under extremely difficult circumstances.

The Reason Russia's Wagner Revolt Is Unlikely To Lead To Army Reform

The rigid hierarchy and corruption of the Russian military high command is deeply ingrained, a generational legacy harking back to Soviet times. 

The result is that while many soldiers and civilians are sympathetic to the complaints raised by Prigozhin, they are not strong enough to overcome the army's cultural norms. JL 

Neil MacFarquhar reports in the New York Times:

Problems identified by Yevgeny Prigozhin are likely to continue to fester, enraging troops and further lowering already sickly morale. These include lack of command and control, rigid hierarchy, corruption, tangled logistics, equipment shortages and the absence of an honest, public assessment of the war in Ukraine. Reformers run up against deep-seated cultural norms, particularly rigid, hierarchical command structure and callousness about soldiers’ casualties, a legacy of Soviet times. High-level commanders aren’t held accountable.