As Ukraine Pushes Towards Melitopol, Russia Forced To Risk Dividing Its Troops

In attempting to halt Ukraine's counteroffensive momentum, Russia is being forced to split its limited forces between the Ukraine's growing Tokmak-Melitopol axis of advance and the Russians desire to counterattack in Ukraine's northeast. 

Informed observers, like British intelligence, now believe Russia does not have enough troops or equipment to do both. JL 

RFE/RL reports:

U.S. officials and British intelligence noted gains by Ukrainian forces as they break through heavily fortified Russian defenses in Ukraine's southeast. While "Russian forces are trying to distract Ukraine from its counteroffensive," Russia risks dividing its own forces as it seeks to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough. "Any objective observer of this counteroffensive can't deny that they have made progress."

Ukraine's Officer-Hunting Snipers Exploit Major Russian Vulnerability

The Russian military's top-heavy and officer-centric command structure makes it especially vulnerable to disruption because the elimination of leaders in the field can paralyze an entire unit. 

Ukrainian snipers are trained to look for and eliminate such senior military commanders. JL 

Ryan Pickrell reports in Business Insider:

Ukrainian snipers hunting high-profile Russian targets like senior Russian officers are exploiting a longstanding vulnerability in the Russian armed forces. They are tasked with taking out senior commanders, key members of crews for artillery and other weapons. Russia's top-down, officer-centric command structure draws senior officers to vulnerable positions along the front lines but also leaves Russian forces less flexible at the tactical level, and when that structure is crumpled by external interference, such as a bullet fired by a sniper, it can confuse and paralyze the decision-making process. Killing a unit leader in the Russian army can "discombobulate" that unit and throw any attack plan into "disarray."

How AI Might Actually Change Politics and Government

The implications go far beyond deepfakes and misinformation.

What if an AI creates its own party, attracts human candidates - and wins? JL 

Bruce Schneier and Nathan Sanders report in MIT Technology Review:

We worry campaigns will attack opponents with fake audio or video, foreign governments will spread misinformation, AI-generated opinions swamp the politics of real people. But how AI threatens democracy lacks imagination. The future may be much more interesting. Could an AI candidate be elected to office? The acceptance by a legislature of testimony generated by AI? The adoption of a bill written by AI? AI-generated messaging outscores campaign consultant recommendations in polling? AI creates a political party with its own platform, attracting human candidates? AI generated profit makes political campaign contributions? The greatest challenge to most of these is observability: will we know it when we see it?

Why Ukraine's Breach of Verbove Line Can Wreak Havoc Among Russian Forces

The Ukrainian breach of heavily defended Russian lines at Verbove accomplishes two major achievements: it brings plentiful Ukrainian shorter range artillery within target distance of Tokmak, rendering that crucial Russian supply hub largely unusable. 

And it opens up the relatively more lightly defended occupied areas beyond to exploitation by Ukrainian armored forces, potentially forcing the Russians to retreat to Crimea or to the east. Either of those Ukrainian gains would be strategically devastating for Russia. JL 

\Daniel Michaels and Isabel Coles report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian troops’ piercing of Russian lines this week marks a move with big potential. Full-scale penetration would allow Ukraine to pour armored vehicles through and wreak havoc among Russian forces. A successful breach of defenses that Moscow’s forces spent months building - and held by its best troops - allow Ukrainian troops to capture more territory, target more of Russia’s critical supply lines and undermine Russia’s ability to wage war across a much wider region. If Kyiv’s troops push to 6 miles outside Tokmak, Ukrainian artillery with plentiful 155mm cannons will target its rail and road lines, "making Tokmak useless as a transportation node. The enemy’s defense is cracking."

With Attack On Verbove, Ukraine Confirms It Is Pushing the Russians Back

Ukraine's capture of Robotyne and its subsequent assault on the main Russian defensive lines at Verbove reveal that, despite repeated Russian counterattacks, they are consolidating their gains and pushing the Russians back from their prepared defenses. 

This is significant both because it confirms the significance of the Ukrainian gains and the challenges the Russians face even as they bring all of their might to bear. JL 

Marc Santora and colleagues report in the New York Times:

The move toward Verbove is notable because it shows Ukraine is confident enough in its hold on Robotyne that its troops can press forward. Such advances are significant because they have generated pushed their artillery and missiles closer to strike deeper into Russian-held territory at Moscow’s troops, supplies and transportation networks. Ukraine's forces would be in position to apply pressure on Russian supply routes running through Tokmak,15 miles to the south. It is not clear how many reserve soldiers Russia can bring to this sector of the front without creating weaknesses the Ukrainians can exploit elsewhere. “The Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back, and they can break through.”

First Ukrainians Complete M1 Abrams Tank Training, Delivery Begins This Month

The US M1A1 Abrams tank, a notable addition to the Ukrainian arsenal, is scheduled to arrive in the next couple of weeks. 

This may be just in time to help exploit the breach in Russian lines the Ukrainians appear to be forcing. JL 

Lara Seligman reports in Politico:

Ukrainian soldiers have completed a training program on U.S. M1 Abrams tanks. 200 Ukrainians have practiced on tanks at U.S. Army training areas in Germany. The soldiers recently completed one of the last phases of the program, a combined arms, battalion force-on-force exercise. Ukraine is slated to receive the first ten of 31 promised Abrams tanks in mid-September. “Upgraded modern tanks, the training that goes with it, the ability to use them, will be fundamental to Ukrainian success.”

White House Lauds Ukraine Offensive's "Notable Progress Over Past 72 Hours"

After two weeks of bitchy - and frequently inaccurate - anonymous criticism of Ukraine's counteroffensive from "sources" in Washington, the White House went out of its way today to praise Ukrainian forces' advances. 

This appears to be an effort by the White House to assert its authority over commentary about Ukraine's conduct of the offensive - as well as to signal that Washington is acknowledging genuinely impressive gains. JL 

Dinara Khalilova reports in the Kyiv Independent and Phillips O'Brien comments in NBC:

Washington has seen "notable progress" in Ukraine's counteroffensive on the southern front line in Zaporizhzhia over the past 72 hours, the White House said on Sept. 1. "And they have achieved success against that second line of Russian defenses." If Ukrainian forces make a breakthrough in this region, “it would allow them to split the Russians into two, so they would not be self-supporting or mutually supporting.” As a result, it would be hard (for) Russian forces in west (Ukraine) to remain with Ukrainian forces being able to block key roads and railroads. If the Ukrainians breakthrough, "it will be a vindication of what they’ve been doing and why they’ve been doing it.”

The $3,500 Ukrainian Cardboard Drone Destroying $40 Million Russian Jets

The drones are being supplied to Ukraine by the Australian Army Defence Innovation Hub. And given Ukraine's embrace of innovative tech, they've quickly been put to work and found to be devastating to the Russian air force.  

The cost-benefit ratio in the Ukrainians' favor would alone be worth using them, but their accuracy and effectiveness against important targets may soon make them indispensable. JL

The Conversation reports:

Australia has been supplying Ukraine with 100 of the drones per month this year. Ukraine used the cardboard drones (to) attack an airfield in Kursk, Russia August 27. The attack damaged a Mig-29 and four Su-30 fighter jets, two Pantsir anti-aircraft missile launchers, gun systems, and an S-300 surface-to-air missile. The cardboard drones carry 6.6 pounds and a range of 75 miles. Waxed cardboard offers weather resistance, flat-pack transportation and a lightweight airframe, which enables a longer flight range, a high cruise speed of 60km/h and is harder to detect by radar.

The Reason Prigozhin's Assasination Leaves Putin Weaker

For all his emotional excesses and demand for public acclamation, Prigozhin was brutal enough to achieve some limited success, unlike any of Putin's favored armchair generals. 

His absence reduces competitive pressure on the regular army to perform and exposes the continued incompetence of Russia's Ukraine war prosecution. This, by extension, also reveals Putin's own shortcomings as a war leader - and weakens him in the eyes of a populace not known for its tolerance of weakness. JL

Holman Jenkins reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The Ukraine war is ever more neglected and subordinated to Mr. Putin’s battle for survival in Moscow. Prigozhin  was a rare model for success in that war. Ditto Gen. Sergey Surovikin, relieved in the same 24-hour period for suspect loyalty. Their fate now leaves little incentive for others to retrieve Mr. Putin’s war for him, to show initiative, to do the things that excite the public. Putin still can’t find a way to replace his top military leadership whose incompetence Prigozhin publicly exposed. Doing so would leave only Mr. Putin’s own incompetent authorship of a failed, going-nowhere war for his public to dwell on.

The Tactics That Enabled Ukraine To Breach the Main Russian Line At Verbove

In their breach of the main Russian defensive line at Verbove, the Ukrainians have redefined the term 'combined arms.' Despite a lack of air cover, let alone air superiority, Ukrainian forces have breached what are generally considered the most strongly constructed set of Russian fortifications. 

They have done so by executing complex assaults, maneuvering from at least two directions. They have used their own artillery and counterbattery fire to suppress Russian artillery while also targeting Russian ammunition and supply depots on the front line and in rear areas, making it difficult for the Russian defenders to continue fighting. The Ukrainians have also been using cluster munitions to hit Russian reserves attempting to relieve the troops at the front. In short, the Ukrainians are combining the lessons of their experience fighting the Russians with the enhanced capabilities provided by western weaponry. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Despite a number of fortifications, this line of defense may be weaker. It was not mined as extensively and the Russians seem to be struggling with not enough people to hold the line. Ukraine (also) destroyed ammunition depots in Verbove, as well as on the front positions, ensuring the Russians would not be able to receive new supplies because reserves were destroyed. Ukrainian artillery conducted intense counterbattery fire, focused on diminishing Russian fire support. The Ukrainians also prevented Russians from rotating their troops by tracking and destroying fresh troops on the way.

How the Ukrainians Are About To Outflank Russia's Strongest Defense Line

Ukraine's twin attacks in the general direction of Tokmak appears to have identified a gap in the main Russian 'Surovikin' defensive line.

Assuming this is accurate and can be exploited, the Ukrainians may have found the weakness for which they have been probing, which could result in a flanking of Russian positions and a breakthrough to the south. JL  

RO 37 reports in Daily Kos:

The defensive line Ukraine is currently facing is considered to be the main line (because) it's maximally built out with dragons teeth, anti-armor ditches, bunkers, and trenches. (But) a section of the Surovikin Line that looks to be neglected and left incomplete is located from “Hill 166” east of Novoprokopivka to the edge of Verbove. Ukrainian infantry were spotted 2 km behind the Surovikin Line. The presence of Ukrainians beyond the Surovikin Line may (be) a breach, represents a significant weakening of Russian forward positions, and that Ukrainian attacks are opening up gaps in their defenses to flank Russian positions and roll up the Surovikin Line from the east to the west.

Why History Says the Way Most Cults End Now Seems Likely For MAGA

Cults eventually die for several reasons, the most prominent of which is inability to capture the next generation. Children tend to embrace obsessions at odds with those of their parents. 

This already seems to be happening to MAGA adherents. Children scarred by school shootings - and the incessant drills to prepare for them - and/or concerned about the apocalyptic devastation wreaked by ever more violent natural disasters like fires, hurricanes, floods and tornadoes, are not inclined to follow those claiming there is no problem. In 2020, 62% of Americans 18-29 voted for Biden. And as the legal troubles of the MAGA leader raise questions about his infallibility, whether individuals or Fox News, pretenders to the throne are arising who cannibalize the audience and weaken its appeal, causing cults to fall under the weight of their own unsustainable believability. JL

Peter Sagal reports in The Atlantic:

The way cults die without a final, Jonestown-like conflagration is when they can’t recruit the next generation. We are seeing this in the alt-right. Children of MAGA are voting for the left. Young people say “they’re not going to vote for people who made them do live-shooter drills in schools and loosened the gun laws.” A trend on TikTok of people posting “deconstructing” songs are usually about walking away from conservative Christianity. Many followers of Trump are quiet quitting. They stop posting Facebook memes, put away the MAGA hat, get back into what interested them before. But the only thing that will truly end Trumpism is death. When he leaves, various pretenders will claim his mantle, splintering into factions. (And) members of the cult will die, with no one to replace them.

A Battalion of Hardened Ukrainian Veterans Is On the Front Again

As is often the case in war, as in other fields of endeavor, those who have already done the most are frequently asked to do more. 

Battle-hardened Ukrainian veteran units are being tasked with leading the counteroffensive because they have proven they can survive and win. JL 

Aleksandr Palikot reports in RFE/RL:

Soldiers from the 62nd Battalion of the 103rd Brigade most(ly) volunteered to fight at Russia's invasion in February 2022. A year and a half later, they adapt to a prolonged war. They took part in the fighting that drove the Russians out of Sumy, the defense of Kharkiv, the liberation of Kupyansk, and in the Serebryanskiy Forest near Kreminna, as well as other missions.  "Every day, we destroy their artillery, ammunition depots, and logistics, so the advantage is on our side. The weather in the south is good until late October, and fighting after that is also possible."

How Ukraine's and NATO's Post-Counteroffensive Strategy Is Evolving

Ukraine's adaptive, hybrid strategy is showing impressive results in the breaching of Russia's 'impenetrable' minefields, its advances around Bakhmut and holding actions in the country's northeast despite troop deployments to the south. 

Ukraine and NATO are now planning for the next phase, which is focused on Ukraine's long term security - and which is prefaced on the recognition has not only adapted western weapons systems quickly, but can teach NATO a thing or two about how to use them more creatively and effectively. JL  

Mick Ryan reports in Foreign Affairs:

The Ukrainians have blended NATO and Soviet-era weapons and doctrine. In doing so, the Ukrainians have developed their own approach to modern war. Despite  challenges, the Ukrainians have adapted—one of their institutional strengths. Rhe Ukrainians are making progress in the south (while) managing multiple other campaigns.There is much to be optimistic about in Ukraine’s fight against Russia (but) the US and NATO need to make clear their explicit goal is for Ukraine to defeat Russia’s forces in Ukraine—and to silence Russia’s global narrative. A new strategy must accept that Ukraine is capable of absorbing advanced weapon systems quickly and, indeed, has much to teach the West about their use.

Instacart's App Encouraged Deliverers To Work Through Cat 4 Hurricane Idalia

And tech leaders wonder why their credibility and once exalted status is under attack. JL 

Jules Roscoe reports in Motherboard:

Instacart, a grocery delivery app, suggested its shoppers in the Southeastern U.S. in the midst of Hurricane Idalia, could earn more money from customer tips if they went out to deliver in the hurricane. “Bad weather = good tips,” the banner reads, with a rain cloud emoji and a money bag emoji (though) at time of writing (there was) a hurricane warning, a storm surge warning, and a tornado watch. "The suggestion takes advantage of people, especially millennials and Gen Z who are struggling financially. I’m struggling, but I draw the line at national disasters.” Instacart also suggested taking advantage of dangerous weather for increased tips, reflecting extreme heat conditions.

Why Ukraine's Counteroffensive Gains Are Now Accelerating

Adaptive Ukrainian tactics, cluster munitions effective against entrenched Russian infantry and reinforcements, counterbattery fire that has depleted Russian artillery, long range munitions which further degraded Russian logistics, and life-saving western infantry fighting vehicles have all contributed to the growing momentum of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

What will now be crucial is creating opportunities for a breakthrough by Ukrainian forces seizing more ground so their artillery can target Russia's occupied Ukrainian ports and using Leopard and Challenger tanks as well as additional armor. JL 

James Marson reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainians are fighting through Russian positions (at) Verbove (and) have reached the main defensive line south of Robotyne, raising hopes of a breakthrough. Ukrainian forces are now working to expand cracks in the line to create a hole large enough for armored vehicles to push through. Progress has accelerated in August as accurate counter-battery fire helped suppress Russian artillery, infantry advances seized trenches and Ukraine deployed fresh troops, including powerful units like the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, equipped with Stryker armored fighting vehicles. Cluster bombs are also having a significant impact. A breach at Verbove opens a path to Berdyansk and Mariupol, while progress south of Robotyne threatens Tokmak.

Ukrainians Breach Six Kilometers of Russian Defenses in One Day

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south is accelerating in the south while Ukrainian forces continue to make tactically significant gains around Bakhmut. 

The speed and thoroughness of the assaults against what appear to be Russia's best remaining troops is another sign that the Ukrainian strategy of attacking artillery and supply centers as well as the front lines is beginning to crack Russian defenses. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

The Ukrainians conducted a powerful attack in the direction of Verbove. Geolocated footage shows Russians shelling Verbove, which indicates Ukrainians are storming the settlement. (This reveals) the Russians lost control over 6 km of trenches in one day. And these were supposed to be the most powerful fortifications to stop the Ukrainian advance. If Ukraine holds and repel Russian counterattacks, the second line of defense (may) collapse. South of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces advanced south of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) and in the direction of Volodyne (13km south) on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border. Russian forces had to retreat from heights in the area.

Ukrainians Breach Main Russian 'Surovikin' Defense Line At Verbove

In a significant development, Ukrainian forces have now breached the second - and main - Russian defensive line on the Tokmak-Melitopol axis, around Verbove. 

The Ukrainian advance has been much faster than the assault on the first line near Robotyne both because the Russians were unable to mine the area between the lines as comprehensively as the area in front of the first line so as to permit resupply but also because the Russian forces have been depleted by the Ukrainian attacks. The advances speed and momentum suggest that the Russians are weakening. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine has breached Russia’s main “Surovikin line” near Verbove just a week after liberating Robotyne, the first Russian defensive line. It supports the idea that Russia threw everything it had ahead of the line as it wasn’t as strong as advertised. That second line was assumed to be the toughest of all. (But) the area between the two lines couldn’t be mined as heavily as the approaches to the front line to be able to move equipment, vehicles, troops, and supplies to that first line. Ukraine was tracking those open lanes. Their fast approach to the second line was along those supply lines. Now, Ukraine’s 82nd Air Assault Brigade is at Verbove, on the other side of the Surovikin Line.

Hundreds Of Russian Soldiers Go AWOL As Its Army's Ukraine Morale Plummets

Hundreds of Russian soldiers are deserting or are AWOL (absent without leave) as casualties increase and morale plummets due to the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive. 

Court records show 100 soldiers a week are being tried for desertion or being AWOL, which does not include the numbers who have not been caught. This news comes as both Russian and Ukrainian sources report Russian frontline units appear to be increasingly under-strength. JL  

Thibault Spirlet reports in Business Insider:

Every week 100 Russian soldiers are convicted for refusing to fight in Ukraine, part of a broader manpower crisis in the Russian military. Court records reported a dramatic increase in cases of Russian soldiers absent without official leave (AWOL) since March. "The high rate of convictions demonstrates the poor morale in the Russian Army and the reluctance of some to fight." Russia is also struggling to recruit despite more than doubling pay for some ranks in its military, making it one of the most lucrative careers in Russia. "Russian personnel feel that they are "at war" with their commanders."

2nd Retired US General Attacks Anonymous Pentagon Leaks Criticizing Ukraine

A second senior retired US general has fiercely criticized leaks from anonymous Pentagon sources criticizing Ukraine's conduct of the counteroffensive, which is now making significant gains. 

Retired Lieut. General Ben Hodges noted that the US had overwhelming air superiority for D-Day in Normandy and still took two months to break out. He also pointed out that the 4 day Desert Storm assault was preceded by six weeks of 100,000 air sorties, whereas the Ukrainians are pushing back the Russians without any air support. Earlier criticism in the Wall Street Journal from Retired General Jack Keane noted that no currently serving US or NATO officer has ever served in a war like the one currently being fought in Ukraine. JL 

David Brennan reports in Newsweek:

Retired Lieut. General Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, said "I was disgusted by criticism from the Pentagon. Thank goodness these geniuses were not hanging around when [General Dwight D.] Eisenhower was commanding the D-Day invasion. It took two months with overwhelming air superiority. The Ukrainians have no air support. We would never put an American, German, or British soldier into a fight like this without having already achieved air superiority. In Desert Storm, for six weeks, 100,000 sorties of aircraft struck Iraqi defenses before the the four-day ground war. Ukraine made the correct adaptation. We're a few weeks away from achieving a breakthrough."

As Ukraine Gains Momentum, Russia Deploys Its Last Good Reserves

The continuing success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the country's south is forcing Russia to deploy its last good operational reserves. This is in addition to the redeployment of airborne units from elsewhere along the front line. 

The implication is that Russia may not have to decide whether to give up the Donbas or give up the occupied territory south to Melitopol as it appears unable to defend both. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The Kremlin is rushing reinforcements to southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It’s a desperate bid to prevent a major Ukrainian breakthrough along a critical axis. That the Russians are redeploying the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, “arguably Russia’s best division,” speaks to the growing momentum of the Ukrainians’ counteroffensive. “This strengthens Russian operational capacities. On the other, their failure will critically impair ... combat-ready reserves for rapid deployment.” The implication is if the Ukrainians can maintain their momentum in the south, they might force the Russians to make a hard choice: to hold in the south or hold in the east. They probably wouldn’t be able to do both.

Why Ukraine Is Pushing Russia's Red Lines With Impunity

From daily drone attacks on Moscow and Russian airfields, to amphibious landings on Ukraine, to defeat of elite Russian airborne units on the battlefield, Ukraine is relentlessly attacking Russia and its forces in ways that, a few months ago, hand-wringing 'experts' feared could provoke a nuclear response. 

But Ukraine is proceeding successfully in degrading Russian capabilities because they, perhaps more accurately than NATO and the west, recognize how weak Russia actually is and so are taking steps to assure near-term gains and longer-term security. JL

Max Boot reports in the Washington Post:

Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, once unthinkable, have now become routine. The Russian capital region was targeted for six straight days recently. At the beginning of this conflict, the West was desperately worried that attacks inside Russia would cross a “red line” that would lead Russian President Vladimir Putin to employ nuclear weapons. More recent experience suggests that, for all his bluster, Putin is rational enough not to escalate a limited war that he is already losing into a wider war with NATO that he cannot possibly win.

Ukraine's Degradation of Russia's "Elite Infantry" Units Weakens Defensive Effort

Intelligence reveals that Russia is running short of trained troops to defend its lines on the Tokmak-Melitopol axis of Ukrainian advance due to heavy casualties and desertions.

This is weakening Russian defensive efforts and forcing them to transfer troops from other sectors, which, in turn, weakens those areas. JL 

Abbey Fenbert reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Russia now lacks the "elite infantry" units to conduct operations in Ukraine. The Russian military has been rapidly redeploying elite airborne units in front-line regions where Ukrainian counteroffensive troops are concentrated. On Aug. 27, an elite Russian air unit was transferred to Robotyne, from Luhansk. Lateral redeployment of these units indicates capacity is diminishing. "The degradation of these forces will weaken Russia’s ability to sustain complex defensive operations and disrupt any Russian intent to resume offensive operations at scale."

The Reason Gartner Is Calling Generative AI "Overhyped."

Gartner is an influential researcher and commentator on tech investment and development. 

In  a recent paper, it termed generative AI "overhyped."  While some, perhaps many, venture investors may take umbrage, Gartner is neither the first to make this observation, nor are they belittling generative AI's potential impact. What they are sharing, instead, is a reality well-known to experienced investors: that the early - and often big - money is likely to reap most of the benefits from generative AI, meaning that those trying to jump on that bandwagon now are unlikely to realize returns of similar magnitude, if any. While frustrating both to late investors and to those hoping to benefit from their willingness to overpay, this is a pattern well known and frequently repeated in tech over the past 25 years. JL  

Alvin Cabral reports in N Business :

Investors put $4.2 billion into generative AI start-ups in 2021 and 2022 through 215 deals after 2019.Globally, AI investments are projected to hit $200 billion by 2025. (But) US research firm Gartner has termed generative AI overhyped and positioned it at the peak of “inflated expectations” for emerging technology in 2023. Gartner defines “transformational benefits” as “enabling new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics”. Generative AI is expected to deliver these benefits within two to five years before plateauing, Gartner said. AI simulation, causal AI and federated machine learning (also) enhance digital customer experiences, business decision making and sustainable competitive differentiation.

Ukraine Continues Bakhmut Advance To Prevent Further Defensive Build-Up

The Ukrainians may be transferring some troops from Bakhmut to build on their Robotyne-Tokmak-Melitopol advance success, but are also continue offensive operations around Bakhmut so the Russians are not given the opportunity to build defenses in depth as they have done in the southern areas of Ukraine. 

These assaults are intended to keep the Russians offguard and to prevent both the transfer of Russian troops to the south as well as thwart any effort to reinforce defensive lines in the area. JL

Maria Kostenko reports in CNN:

Ukrainian officials said its military is still on the offensive in the Bakhmut direction, and continues to advance. Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, said that “one of the most important tasks in the Bakhmut sector is to keep up the momentum of advance in order to prevent the enemy from taking measures to create its own defense system. The kind of efforts the enemy has already made, for example, in the Zaporizhzhia sector.”

Why Russia's Primary Ukraine Objective May Be Shifting Away From Crimea

Ukrainian success in penetrating Russian lines on the Zaporizhzhia front towards Tokmak and Melitopol threatens Russian troops and assets in occupied western Ukraine and Crimea. 

This means that Russia may now have to contemplate abandoning that part of Ukraine and focus on holding those areas of the Donbas where it retains some sympathy among the population, even though those regions are devastated ruins. JL

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

Putin may be coming to realize the danger that forces west of Donetsk City are in if they get cut off.  Losing too large of a chunk of the remaining army could threaten his regime in an even larger way than losing Crimea would. The mutiny demonstrated how vulnerable Putin would be to a coup attempt by the Russian army and how much of Russia’s logistics and command focused through Rostov-on-Don. Positioning more forces in the north makes Rostov-on-Don less important to the supply of the troops for the Russian army in general. And it puts a much larger force in range of Belgorod and Kursk. The Oskil river and reservoir line would make for a much more easily defended line.

Ukraine Is Speeding Up Its Advance On the Tokmak Front

Ukrainian commanders are reporting that they are increasingly coming in contact not with Russian front line fighting units, but with rear echelon support and logistics troops. 

This suggests that the Ukrainians have broken through past the toughest of their remaining foes and are now encountering second tier troops who should be easier to defeat more quickly. JL 

Vladyslav Smilianets reports in Reuters:

Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defences in the south and will now be able to advance more quickly. Ukrainian troops had now entered territories where there were only "Russian logistics" groups, and did not expect Russian defences to be as difficult to break through. "We have passed the main roads that were mined. We are coming to those lines where we can go (forward). I'm sure we'll go faster from here."

The Reason Ukraine's Counteroffensive Gains Are Now Accelerating

Ukraine has continued to adapt its capabilities as weapons and available forces present them with opportunities. 

The most accurate description may be hybrid, as their own - sometime bitter - experience combined with the latest weapons and training are weakening Russian defenses both at the front and in the rear, forcing the Russians to redeploy troops to the Zaporizhzhia front even as Ukrainian advances there limit the impact of those transfers. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

People (eg, US and British military officers) would not be trying to claim credit for Ukrainian strategy if intelligence were not showing things are going well for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have made tactically significant gains in Zaporizhia, and are advancing through the most challenging prepared Russian defensive positions. Russian artillery has been weakened, allowing Ukraine to hit Russian forces hard. Ukrainian forces have entered areas where they encounter only Russian ”logistics groups" and expect further breakthroughs will be easier. The Russians are stretched and having to move forces from other parts of the front line (not reserves, redeployments) because they are suffering.

Why Ukraine's Leaders Are Best Positioned To Direct Offensive Against Russians

Anonymous criticism from "Pentagon sources" of Ukrainian leaders' approach to their offensive is unlikely to produce the best results for Ukraine. 

This is because no living American officer has fought a war like the one Ukraine is fighting against an enemy like Russia. Ukraine's civilian and military leaders understand their foe, having grown up in its system, having learned the lessons it wanted taught and now experiencing the way they fight. For Ukraine to prevail, it must use the weapons and training it has been so generously provided, but must do so in the way that assures they achieve their goals. That is the nature of leadership. JL

Jack Keane, retired four-star general, was the US Army’s vice chief of staff and is chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The U.S. should be focused on helping Ukraine fight the war the way it wants to fight, not chirping from the sidelines. No leader in the American military today has designed large-scale mechanized operations against a serious, capable enemy employing a comprehensive defense. The last time was the Metz campaign in France in 1944, led by Gen. George S. Patton. Well-designed mechanized campaigns almost always advance on multiple axes . That is what the coalition did against Iraq in 1991 and 2003. It’s how the Americans, Germans and Soviets fought in World War II. The reason is: Advancing along a single axis allows the defender to concentrate on stopping that one advance.

Ukrainian's Surprise Tactics Avoid Minefields, Turbocharge Tokmak Offensive

"Hit 'em where they ain't" has been a tenet of maneuver warfare for decades, meaning that mobile troops attack where the enemy is least expecting them. 

As Ukrainian forces continue their assault towards Tokmak and Melitopol, they are using intelligence to establish routes around Russian minefields - some identified by thermal sensors on drones - and they are adapting routes of attack around the areas the Russians are reinforcing. The result is additional momentum for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

The Ukrainians feigned attacks near Robotyne to play into Russian expectations while amassing forces in the tree lines east. They then commenced a southern push parallel to the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka line, swiftly gaining ground. The Ukrainians employed drones equipped with thermal cameras, allowing them to map minefields, identifying safe pathways. Demining equipment cleared paths, facilitating the movement of troops across the minefields and enabling assaults on Russian positions. The Ukrainians’ rapid advancement (also) capitalizing on topographical advantages. The Russians failed to establish robust defensive positions to repel the Ukrainian assault

Why Ukraine May "Strangle the Russian Army's Frontline Troops"

If Ukraine can continue its offensive momentum in two or three southern axes of advance, it may be able to strangle Russian forces manning front line defenses and force them to retreat. JL 

Rebecca Romman reports in Business Insider:

Russian generals will know Ukraine is making progress, even if the West doesn't. "Substantial progress" is being made. Where intelligence analysts see distances on maps of southern Ukraine, military planners see something very different. They apply military math and calculate that Ukraine does not need to advance 50 miles to "crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications"— 10 miles will suffice to make headway. Gloomy Russian military bloggers agree with the assessments of Ukrainian success,  "the bastards are rapidly advancing."

Ukraine's "Tactically Significant" Gains In South "Look Like Momentum"

NATO allies including the US are starting to make statements suggesting that Ukraine's attacks on the Tokmak axis are gaining momentum and are becoming significant. JL 

The Kyiv Post reports:

Geolocated footage as well as statements from both Ukrainian and western officials suggest Kyiv’s counteroffensive is making progress and gathering pace in the western Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine's armed forces have made “further tactically significant gains” in the south of the country and may have broken through the toughest line of Russian defenses in some areas. On Saturday, a Ukrainian commander said forces fighting in the south believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defenses and will now be able to advance much quicker.

Ukrainian Gains North of Tokmak Changing War's Strategic Calculus

Ukrainian forces' successful advances towards Tokmak are forcing Russia to curtail its intentions to attack in Ukraine's northeast in order to rush reinforcements in what may be a belated effort to try and halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive. JL

RO 37 reports in Daily Kos:

Ukrainian gains north of Tokmak may be prompting changes to the strategic calculus. Russian pressure on Lyman may be subsiding.  Russia gathered 100,000 troops, or around half the front line forces available to Russia in the entire Ukrainian theater to the Northern Front in Luhansk Oblast. Russia appears to have responded to developments in the south by stripping its offensive forces around Kreminna to rush reinforcements to the Tokmak. Captured unit patches from the Tokmak direction indicate Russia moved multiple regiments of the Russian 76th Air Assault Division from Kreminna to defend Tokmak.