A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Feb 20, 2024

Russian Attacks Around Avdiivka "Significantly Decrease" as Depleted Units Regroup

The Russian forces that finally took Avdiivka are so depleted that they will need time to regroup. 

The result is that attacks around Avdiivka have decreased 'significantly' giving Ukraine more time to prepare defenses and counterattacks. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The number of Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction significantly decreased in the past day and that Russian forces are currently regrouping. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to a new line of defense, previously prepared and fortified at “several levels.” Russian forces will have to conduct an operational pause before resuming offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction or will have to transfer additional reinforcements from other sectors of the front. There is no indication that the Russian command is moving reserves toward Avdiivka. On the contrary the Russian command will likely transfer Russian forces accumulated around Avdiivka to other areas of the frontline in the near future.

The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhoviy reported on February 19 that the number of Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction significantly decreased in the past day and that Russian forces are currently regrouping and conducting clearing operations in Avdiivka.[4] Lykhoviy noted that Russian shelling and aviation activity has also significantly decreased in the area.[5] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to a new line of defense, which Ukrainian forces previously prepared in advance and fortified at “several levels.”[6] Russian forces will likely have to conduct an operational pause before resuming significant offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction or will have to transfer additional reinforcements from other sectors of the front to the area to prevent operations near Avdiivka from culminating. Russian forces have reserves available for such reinforcement in other sectors, but ISW has observed no indication that the Russian command is moving those reserves toward Avdiivka at this time. Lykhoviy and Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash, on the contrary, stated that the Russian command will likely transfer Russian forces accumulated around Avdiivka to other, unspecified areas of the frontline in the near future.[7] Yevlash stated that it will likely take Russian forces at least a week to transfer units from Avdiivka into battle in unspecified frontline areas.[8] ISW has not yet observed any indications of how Russian forces will choose to allocate their manpower currently deployed to the Avdiivka area.

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