A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Feb 1, 2024

Russians 'Surprise' Attack On Avdiivka Foiled By Hovering Ukraine Drones

The Russians tried surprising Ukraine's Avdiivka garrison by infiltrating through a sewer. But they were, not surprisingly, seen climbing out of the sewer - smeared with feces - by omnipresent Ukrainian drones and eliminated. 

This marks yet another Russian failure to threaten, let alone take, Avdiivka. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

First the Russians tried assaulting Avdiivka. When that failed, they tried cutting off the city from the south and north. When that failed, the Russians tried infiltrating the city. (That) also ended in failure, as a small group of Russian infantry emerged from a sewer, smeared in feces, and promptly got hunted down by Ukrainian drones. Drone operators spotted the Russian infantry climbing out of the sewer. The Russian infiltrators lacked support–and couldn’t defend themselves as FPV drones zoomed in. The Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, which had with 40,000 troops in October, now have losses of @26,000.

First the Russians tried directly assaulting the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, starting in October. When that failed in November, they tried bypassing and cutting off the city from the south and north.

When that failed this month, they resumed direct attacks on the eastern city, just northwest of Donetsk. Meanwhile, the Russians have tried infiltrating the city from the south in order to slip paste, and cut off, a key Ukrainian strongpoint—a Cold War air-defense bunker that the Ukrainians have turned into a veritable fortress.

The infiltration also ended in failure, as a small group of Russian infantry emerged from a sewer, smeared in feces, and promptly got hunted down by Ukrainian drones. The sewer attack, targeting the Tsarska Okhota section of Avdiivka, is the latest debacle in a battle replete with them.

The Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, which initially and together had with around 40,000 troops, by early December had lost 13,000 killed and wounded attacking Avdiivka. Nearly two months later, Russian losses may have doubled.

Losses in the 20,000-strong Ukrainian garrison—the 47th and 116th Mechanized Brigades in the northern sector, the 110th Mechanized Brigade in Avdiivka proper, the 1st Tank Brigade backing them up and various smaller units in support—have been much lighter. If losses of tanks and fighting vehicles are indicative of manpower losses, the Russians are suffering 13 casualties for every one casualty they inflict on the Ukrainians.

All this bloodshed has not moved, by much, the front line around Avdiivka. The Russians have inched toward the city from the south and are making a westward run along a road well north of the city.

There was a brief panic among some Ukrainian observers last week as Russian troops fought their way past Zenit toward and threatened to cut off the road connecting the fortress to Avdviika proper, but the sense of alarm faded as the Russian incursion faded, too–weakened by mine strikes and defeated, as usual, by the combination of artillery, explosives-laden drones and M-2 fighting vehicles firing their 25-millimeter auto-cannons.

But then the Russians tried again to get past Zenit into Tsarska Okhota. Success, for the Russians, would “significantly complicate the defense” of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies warned.

Fortunately for the Ukrainians, drone operators spotted the Russian infantry climbing out of the sewer they apparently had used to slip into Tsarska Okhota. “Genius move,” a drone operator for the Ukrainian Khorne Group quipped.

“Smeared in shit, Russians climb out in the area of Tsarska Okhota and try to sun to suburbs of Avdiivka,” the drone operator continued in a social-media post translated by @wartranslated. But the Russian infiltrators lacked heavy support–and couldn’t defend themselves as Khorne’s speedy FPV drones zoomed in.

One Russian sought cover in the ruins of a house. A Ukrainian drone followed him in–and exploded. “He stays to rot in the ruin,” the drone-operator joked.

It still is possible, after all this time and all those losses, that the Russian field armies finally will succeed in pushing the Ukrainian garrison out of the ruins of Avdiivka–either by finally bypassing and cutting off the city or forcing their way into the southern suburbs.

But at that point, it would be difficult to describe the Russian conquest of Avdiivka as a victory. Taking the city would advance the front line a few miles, at best, in Russia’s favor. Is that with tens of thousands of casualties?

It’s worth noting that, just a few weeks ago, the Estonian defense ministry concluded that Ukrainian forces could trigger a downward spiral in Russian military readiness by killing or maiming 100,000 Russians in 2024. The battle over Avdiivka already has cost the Russians perhaps 10,000 casualties this year.

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