The Reason US Abandonment Of Ukraine Aids China, North Korea and Iran

The 'axis of autocracy' between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is deeply intertwined. Failing to help Ukraine emboldens them all and encourages further military cooperation between them which threatens US interests economic and military interests around the world. JL

Seth Jones comments in the Wall Street Journal:

The evidence of closer relations between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea is clear. Almost every element of the axis works together. The U.S. can't pick and choose between opposing China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. The growing military, economic and diplomatic cooperation between these countries means that appeasing one of them helps the whole axis of autocracy. If Congress doesn’t pass a bill providing military and economic aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other front-line states, it will endanger American interests in every theater.

As Congress debates an emergency supplemental bill to aid Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, some lawmakers and pundits insist that the U.S. can pick and choose between opposing China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. It can’t. The growing military, economic and diplomatic cooperation between these countries means that appeasing one of them helps the whole axis of autocracy.

The opponents of American assistance come in several flavors. There are those who believe the threat China poses necessitates that the U.S. focus on opposing Beijing, not Moscow. They fail to appreciate how a Russian victory would be a boon to autocratic regimes around the globe—most of all China. Others want to kill funding for Israel, despite growing Iranian-backed aggression in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Finally, some isolationists believe America can bury its head in the sand and focus mainly on domestic issues, such as immigration and border security, as though there’s no real trade-off. In each case, they misunderstand how wider American interests are tied into the security of each of these front-line states.

The evidence of closer relations between China, Russia, Iran and even North Korea is clear. Take China. While it is true that Beijing poses a serious danger to American interests, China also has tied itself tightly to Russia—particularly in its fight for Ukraine.

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have bragged that their friendship “has no limits,” and according to American intelligence, China is “an increasingly important buttress for Russia in its war effort.” The report found that Beijing is “probably supplying Moscow with key technology and dual-use equipment used in Ukraine.” This includes navigation equipment for M-17 military helicopters, jamming technology for military vehicles, parts for fighter jets, components for defense systems like the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, semiconductor chips for weapons systems, and drones for battlefield use. China denies sending military equipment to Russia.

China also clearly sees a national interest in the success of Iran and North Korea. Beijing has stepped up aid to both regimes, including advanced technology that can be used for weapons as well as trade that circumvents U.S. and international sanctions.

Almost every element of the axis works together. Tehran has provided growing military assistance to Moscow, including Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 drones, artillery shells, short-range ballistic missiles, and more than one million rounds of small-arm ammunition. Iran is also building a sprawling drone factory in the Russian town of Yelabuga, which will produce thousands of attack drones. Iran’s president has denied sending drones and weapons to Russia since the war in Ukraine began.

North Korea has supplied military aid to Moscow, such as artillery shells, short-range ballistic missiles, and other munitions for Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine. Russia has likely supplied North Korea with advanced technology for satellites, nuclear-powered submarines and ballistic missiles. Last November, Pyongyang launched its new Chollima-1 rocket in Tongchang-ri in an attempt to put up its first military spy satellite, thanks in part to technical help from Moscow. North Korea and Russia have denied that Pyongyang is sending arms to Moscow.

These despotic regimes have disagreements, as all friends do. Chinese leaders have complained about Russia’s warming military relations with North Korea. Beijing has been far more reluctant to help Pyongyang develop nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders were also recently upset with Russia for taking sides with the United Arab Emirates in a spat over the sovereignty of three islands in the Persian Gulf.

The members of this axis are nevertheless developing increasingly close relationships, contributing to 17 straight years of declining democracy worldwide, according to the U.S.-based Freedom House. Their remarkable cooperation disproves those in Congress and the media who think the U.S. can focus on only one adversary at a time.

America’s allies certainly don’t see it that way. South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand have contributed billions of dollars in economic assistance and weapons to help Ukraine defeat Russia. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan, President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia have all visited Kyiv to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine. Even Taiwanese leaders have expressed alarm at the prospect that the U.S. will slash funds to Ukraine.

Military aid is a sliver of the federal budget, and more than 75% of the bill the Senate passed would go to U.S. defense jobs, including in Texas, Pennsylvania, California, Florida and Alabama.

It is time to be realistic about growing cooperation between U.S. adversaries. If Congress doesn’t pass a bill providing military and economic aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other front-line states, it will endanger American interests in every theater. To paraphrase former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the U.S. needs to deal with the world as it is, not the world that some might wish it to be.