The Reason Russia's Continuing Its Futile Attacks Is Good For Ukraine

Ukraine's strategy as it waits for more ammunition and recruits is to degrade and attrit Russia's fighting capabilities. 

Recent experience versus Russia's winter offensive demonstrates that it does not take much to defeat Russian attacks so as long as they want to throw away the lives of their men and their limited amount of armor, Ukraine is happy to indulge them. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

This war has shown that if Russia wants to continue to make large attacks—that is not a bad thing for Ukraine. It's noticeable how dangerous it is to go on the offensive. For the last month, Russia has been on the offensive, and losses for the Russians have been running at 3-1 compared to Ukrainians'. Even with reduced firepower, the Ukrainians were able to disable enough tanks and APCs to make the assaults break apart. Ukraine will use 2024 to attrit Russian forces as much as possible, and that process will be greatly accelerated by Russian offensives. So, having the Russians attack is a good thing for Ukraine.

There were a number of mentions this week about the Russians starting to accumulate force for their next large offensive. There was one story saying that the large offensive could come in August. Another statement by Ukrainian authorities was that a large Russian offensive could come as early as May/June and even that it might be directed towards Kharkiv.

It only makes sense. With the cutoff of US aid, Ukraine really has no scope to consider offensive operations at present. President Zelensky has come out and said that Ukraine does not have the material to go on the offensive, and its no surprise that what Ukraine has been spending alot of effort on lately is strengthening its defensive lines.

All this war has shown is that if Russia decides it wants to continue to make large attacks—that is probably not a bad thing for Ukraine. Its noticeable how dangerous it is to go on the offensive. For the last month, for instance, Russia has been on the offensive, and photographed losses for the Russians have been running at 3-1 compared to that of Ukrainians.

This week, if there needed any evidence, once again showed how hard it is for the attacker to move forward. The Russians in this case actually tried a number of times to launch large vehicle-led assaults in a number of places across the line. The result, as was seen in this Russian assault near Avdiivka, hsa been the heavy loss of armored vehicles.

The results of these assaults were basically what we have come to expect. Even with their reduced firepower, the Ukrainians were able to disable enough of the tanks and APCs to make the assaults break apart. In some cases only a relatively small amount of defensive firepower was needed to stymie them. There has also been some interesting footage released of a Russian armored column being very quickly decimated by cluster munition fire.

If the Russians are going to break this pattern, they are going to have to have a massive numerical advantage and attack where Ukraine is particularly weak. Otherwise, it will be very much in Ukraine’s interest for Russia to attack and risk the higher losses.

As it is clear that Ukraine will not be going on the offensive anytime soon—maybe for all of 2024. US aid being cut off means that Ukraine will have enough to do holding their defensive positions, rather than planning offensives that can accelerate Ukrainian losses. As such, Ukraine will want to use 2024 to attrit Russian forces as much as possible, and that is a process that will be greatly accelerated by Russian offensives.

So, having the Russians attack is probably a good thing for Ukraine. Particularly if they are relying with hastily trained soldiers with refurbished military equipment.