Despite Russia's Stark Numerical Advantage, Ukraine Has Stymied Advance

Despite a 1 to 3 advantage in troop strength, Russian forces have been unable to advance in a manner consistent with experts' expectations of the opportunity to gain that should have given them.

The question now is whether, given Ukrainian reinforcements and resupply, the Russians have again reached a high water mark, limited by their own inadequacies. JL 

Olha Hlushchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian forces' resource constraints, with a one to three personnel shortfall northwest of Avdiivka, have nonetheless prevented Russian troops, which are over a division in size, from making gains that the Russians (sh)ould have made with such superior numbers. Ukrainian forces' withdrawal from limited tactical positions along the battlefield west of Avdiivka have not facilitated rapid Russian tactical gains. The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements allow the Ukrainian forces to slow down Russia's tactical advances and stabilise the front. Deployment of Ukraine's new equipment will force Russia to accept that wider and deeper penetration of the front is unlikely anytime soon

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the withdrawal of Ukraine's Defence Forces from their positions in the settlements of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka is not helping the Russians achieve rapid tactical success, and Russian troops are unlikely to be able to reach deeper operationally significant penetration in the area anytime soon.

Source: ISW

Details: Recent Russian advances have forced Ukrainian forces to retreat from other limited tactical positions along the battlefield west of the war-torn town of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have so far not facilitated rapid Russian tactical gains.

Analysts believe that Russian troops are unlikely to achieve deeper, operationally significant penetration in the area in the short term.

On 28 April, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve the lives and health of Ukrainian defenders.

"Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka direction in the coming weeks, and Ukrainian commanders may decide to conduct additional withdrawals if Russian forces threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions in the area," the institute noted.

The next line of settlements in the area lies some distance from the Ukrainian defence line, which has been under attack by Russian forces since the capture of the war-torn town of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces may use fortifications in fields to the west of the current front line to slow down future Russian attacks.

A complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to fortified positions west of Avdiivka would likely allow Russian troops to make a relatively rapid advance through these fields. However, experts said this advance will likely only be rapid if Ukrainian units do not attempt to hold positions in these fields.

Syrskyi added that Ukrainian forces are redeploying units of brigades that have rested and recovered to stabilise the situation on the Avdiivka front.

The arrival of the restored Ukrainian reinforcements will likely allow the Ukrainian Defence Forces to slow down Russia's tactical advances and potentially stabilise the front.

Ukrainian forces face resource constraints, with a reported one to three personnel shortfall northwest of Avdiivka, but they have nonetheless prevented Russian troops, which are over a division in size, from making the gains that the Russians could have made with such superior numbers.

The deployment of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional equipment will force the Russian command to either accept that wider and deeper penetration of the front line is unlikely anytime soon or send additional reserves to the area to pursue tactical advantages.

At present, Russian forces are able to achieve operationally important successes near the town of Chasiv Yar and are preparing reserves to support a large-scale offensive expected this summer.

The further stabilisation of Russian positions northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice: continue to push west towards its operational objective at the town of Pokrovsk or attempt to push north to mount potential additional offensives around Chasiv Yar.

Ukrainian officials had previously identified Pokrovsk as a Russian operational objective on the Avdiivka front, and Syrskyi confirmed this assessment on 28 April.

Russian forces may also decide to move north from their tactical penetration near the settlement of Ocheretyne along the H-20 (Donetsk–Kostiantynivka) road to put pressure on Ukrainian forces defending in the area of Toretsk and possibly on the operational rear of the Ukrainian defence in the area of Chasiv Yar and west of it.

The Russian military has long aimed to capture the four major cities that form the fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka), with Chasiv Yar being of great operational importance as it would provide a springboard for Russian forces to launch offensive operations on Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.

In addition, Syrskyi noted that the threat of a possible future Russian offensive against Kharkiv is forcing Ukraine to allocate additional forces and equipment to defend the city, although ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to capture the city.