Russia's Kharkiv Assault Is "Faltering" As Ukrainian Forces Seize the Initiative

Russia's Kharkiv assault, which may or may not be an offensive, is now widely reported to be faltering in the face of increased Ukrainian resistance. 

The Kremlin evidently hoped they would catch Ukraine unawares with an attack that could spark panic and retreat. But Ukrainian forces were aware of the impending assault, and resupplied with artillery ammunition as well as armor, have inflicted such significant casualties on the Russians that it has forced a pause. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Moscow is faltering in its offensive in the Kharkiv region amid high losses, which could precede a Ukrainian counterattack. A Russian breakthrough to the village of Lyptsi and entry into Vovchansk "every day becomes more difficult." Russian forces faced Ukraine's "massive artillery fire" combined with drones and reserve troops. Ukrainian forces were "not knocked out and have begun to hit back," and "now numerical superiority...is on Ukraine's side whose forces massed in the Kharkiv direction may be enough...to seize the initiative."  ISW's assessment added that "there were no confirmed changes to the front line."

A prominent Russian military blogger has raised concerns that Moscow is faltering in its offensive in the Kharkiv region amid high losses, which could precede a Ukrainian counterattack, as a map shows the latest state of play.

A push started on May 10 by Moscow in the northeastern Ukrainian region just over the border has seen Russian forces gain momentum, reportedly capture several settlements and enter the town of Vovchansk. However, a Telegram post by the channel WarGonzo, which is associated with Russian special services and has more than 1 million followers, described how large losses by Moscow's forces could precede Ukrainian forces seizing the initiative.

 

"Do the Ukrainian armed forces have the potential to turn the situation around on the Kharkiv front?" the post on Tuesday reads, "of course they do."

 

"These are not my wild guesses, but real front-line mathematics, which I tried to assess while traveling along the roads of the Kharkiv border area over the last few days."

Noting a Russian breakthrough to the village of Lyptsi and entry into Vovchansk, the post adds, "the bad thing is that every day if becomes more and more difficult." Russian forces faced Ukraine's "massive artillery fire" combined with drones and reserve troops.

 

After observing roads in the area, WarGonzo said that Ukrainian forces were "not knocked out and have begun to hit back," and that "now the numerical superiority...is on the enemy's side.

 

"You can talk as much as you like about the quality and motivation of Ukrainian personnel but now there is every reason to believe that the enemy forces massed in the Kharkiv direction may be enough...to seize the initiative," read the post, which was also shared by pro-Ukrainian X, formerly Twitter, account War Translated.

 

In its update on Monday, the latest map by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed Russian claims that Moscow had captured the settlements of Zybyne and northern parts of Starytsya, as well as Vovchansk.

The ISW's assessment added that, amid Russia's offensive operations near Lyptsi on Monday "there were no confirmed changes to the front line in this area," which lies north east of Ukraine's second-biggest city of Kharkiv.

"If Russia manages to capture Kharkiv, or at very least the ring road around it, that gives them access to the road network into central Ukraine and cuts Ukrainian forces farther to the east off from easy resupply," David Silbey, associate professor of history at Cornell University, told Newsweek.

The ISW has previously said that Ukraine's ability to defend itself in the region has been compromised by the U.S. prohibition on the use of American-provided weapons on Russian territory. This policy was reiterated by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday.He told reporters "our expectation" is that Kyiv use U.S.-supplied weapons on targets within Ukraine, as he said Moscow had opened up "another front" in the Kharkiv region.