Ukraine Is Starting To Build - And Fire - Its Own Missiles

Frustrated by US and NATO restrictions on its ability to strike deep inside Russia in order to degrade its logistics and other military capabilities, the Ukrainians are now developing their own ballistic missiles. They have the skill and experience because during the Soviet era, Ukraine was where much of that research and development was centered. 

The Ukrainians have already test fired such missiles and expect them to be operational within months. JL

Alistair MacDonald reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine is working on its own ballistic missiles to strike deep into enemy territory. The country keeps most details of its program secret, but Ukrainian officials have indicated recently that it could be operational soon. The country already produces its own cruise missiles and missile-drone hybrid weapons. Ballistic missiles typically leave the earth’s atmosphere after launch and hurtle back to earth at high speeds that make them hard to stop. They also tend to pack a bigger explosive punch than many other types of missiles and drones.

At the center of an escalating arms race, Ukraine wants to join the ranks of a select group of countries that can produce ballistic missiles.

This week, Kyiv struck Russia for the first time with long-range missiles supplied by the West, using U.S.-made ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles in two successive strikes. Russia responded Thursday by launching an intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Ukraine is busy working on its own ballistic missiles to strike deep into enemy territory. The country keeps most details of its program secret, but Ukrainian officials have indicated recently that it could be operational soon. The country tested one of its ballistic missiles in August.

“You will be hearing next year or by the end of the year that there will be a huge missile program,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last month.

Ukraine’s missile program, though, lacks capacity and funding, officials say. Those factors could limit the program’s effectiveness, and mean Kyiv will likely remain dependent on the West for some types of weapons for years to come.

Donald Trump’s election victory has added fresh urgency to Ukraine’s efforts. Trump has promised to bring the war to an end, raising new questions about how long Kyiv can count on the continued flow of Western arms. Already, the Biden administration has offered little support for Ukraine’s missile program, urging it to focus on developing long-range drones as a more cost-efficient approach. Only about a dozen countries—including the U.S. and Russia—have the know-how and ability to produce ballistic missiles, according to Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a think tank.

Ballistic missiles typically leave the earth’s atmosphere after launch and hurtle back to earth at high speeds that make them hard to stop. They also tend to pack a bigger explosive punch than many other types of missiles and drones. 

Ukraine has seen first hand how devastating ballistic missiles can be. Since the start of the war, the country has shot down a far smaller proportion of Russian ballistic missiles than it has other types of missiles and enemy drones, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Ukrainian data.

On Thursday, Moscow fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads at Ukraine for the first time. That strike appeared to be aimed at a facility that was a hub for the Soviet-era ballistic-missile industry. 

Ukraine has plenty of technical know-how, having played a key role in designing and building the Soviet Union’s long-range missiles. The country already produces its own cruise missiles and missile-drone hybrid weapons. Its missile technology sometimes leans on designs from the Soviet era, analysts say.

For example, the country’s Neptune cruise missile, which resembles the Soviet Kh-35 antiship missile, has been in use through much of the war. The weapon has claimed several high-profile hits, including sinking the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. But Ukraine has yet to add a homemade ballistic missile to its arsenal despite working on the weapons for decades. The country is currently working on more than one ballistic missile, said Anna Gvozdiar, Ukraine’s deputy minister for strategic industries. 

One obstacle is financing the program. Oleksandr Kamyshin, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on strategic affairs, said the country simply doesn’t have enough money to increase production fast enough. Ukraine has used its Neptune missile sparingly during the war, with officials saying a lack of finance has held back production. The country has reached out to foreign governments for help.

Ballistic missiles are particularly expensive to produce, partly because the materials used need to withstand very high temperatures during re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere, said Douglas Barrie, a specialist in military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank. Another challenge is producing the weapons at scale.

Zelensky said last month that Ukraine had produced 100 missiles this year, though stepping that up could be tricky.

Missile makers around the world have struggled to get a steady supply of components for missiles, such as their motors. Ukraine has the added problem of a depleted workforce and Russian attacks on its manufacturing infrastructure. 

Yehor Chernev, a Ukrainian lawmaker who helps handle the country’s relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said last month that Kyiv was struggling to get components on time.

Nevertheless, Chernev said the ballistic program was close to operation. “Believe me, there will soon be concrete results that not only Ukraine but also the Russian Federation will see,” he told Ukrainian television.

Given the obstacles, the U.S. says Ukraine should focus on long-range drones. 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently told reporters that Ukraine’s already successful long-range drone program made more financial sense than ballistic missiles, given their expense.

A recent $2.4 billion U.S. aid package included funding for long-range drones and other domestically produced ordinance. Those funds won’t be used for ballistic missiles, according to a person familiar with the matter.  

Ukraine has for some time been using drones to conduct strikes at far greater distances than the Western missiles it has been given permission to use.

Kyiv says that one of its attack drones hit around 2,000 kilometers into Russia. Drones have hit an ammunition depot northwest of Moscow and an air base in Russia’s Volgograd region. Ukraine is also producing weapons that are a cross between a missile and a drone. 

One of the hybrid weapons is the Palianytsia, which was first used in occupied eastern Ukraine in late August. The weapon looks like a small cruise missile but has a less sophisticated guidance system and a smaller warhead, according to Borsari. That likely makes them cheaper and easier to make than cruise and ballistic missiles.

Another Ukrainian made long-range hybrid, called January, uses rocket motors to boost the first part of the flight before the drone takes over. 

Gvozdiar, the deputy minister, said deep-strike drones were an effective, cheaper alternative to ballistic missiles while they were being developed. 

“To develop one product takes years but we are in circumstances where it needs to take months,” Gvozdiar said. “We are limited by time, and limited by funds.”