The Strategic Implications Of Massive North Korean Deaths In Kursk

The Russians and North Koreans know what they are doing. The North Korean soldiers being sacrificed in futile attacks on Ukrainian positions in Kursk oblast are for a strategic benefit halfway across the world. 

In return for providing cannon fodder, North Korea is receiving technology which is already improving its ballistic missile capabilities. The outcome is that North Korea will become an even greater destabilizing presence in the Pacific, both to the US and its allies - and to China. All of which benefits Russia - especially as its military is now operating on fumes, convicts and Soviet-era armor. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The North Koreans are suffering losses over the course of a few days that will either see the first NK force wiped out as a combat force, or lead to even more NK forces coming to fight for Russia. "Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses."  The stories of NK soldiers committing suicide rather than being captured shows that the troops themselves know that they are expendable. The benefits that NK will get from this commitment on Russia’s behalf include a more capable NK missile force going forward—with important regional implications in the Pacific.

Almost half the way around the world from Europe, the war is coming home to North Korea—of course not in the way that we might understand it. We are getting reports from Ukraine and Washington about the North Koreans suffering losses in a few days that will either see the first NK force wiped out as a combat force, or lead to even more NK forces coming to fight for Russia. Moreover, there is the benefits that NK will get from this commitment on Russia’s behalf.

Here is how White House spokesman John Kirby described what the US is seeing.

Okay, so what I wanted to talk a little bit about was the situation in and around Kursk. We now assess that North Korean forces are conducting massed — massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk. And these human wave tactics that we’re seeing haven’t really been all that effective. In fact, we assess that they’ve resulted in heavy casualties for these North Korean forces. Our estimate is that, to date, they have suffered more than 1,000 killed or wounded in this particular fighting in just the past week of them fighting on the front lines. So, 1,000 in just the past week.

It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses. These North Korean soldiers appear to be highly indoctrinated, pushing attacks even when it is clear that those attacks are futile.

We also have reports of North Korean soldiers taking their own lives rather than surrendering to Ukrainian forces, likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they’re captured.

So losing 1,000 a week from a force of 10,000-12,000 is clearly not sustainable (thus the force will disappear or have to be reinforced). Also, the stories of NK committing suicide rather than being captured shows that the troops themselves know that they are expendable. There was a report that one North Korean soldier was captured by Ukraine, but supposedly he died not long afterwards from his wounds.

Now the big story here is not about these troops being killed or even killing themselves (as horrible as that is). There wont be any uprising or political repercussions for the NK leadership. The big story is what is NK getting for its willingness to give Putin everything that they can (including millions of shells as well as its soldiers and ballistic missiles).

There is definite evidence that Russia is sending NK large supplies of oil—though the bigger question is what kind of military technology the Russians are supplying as well. We don’t know for sure, but the odds favor some kind of significant transfer. Recent missile tests in North Korea have shown some surprising improvements in a very short period of time—as this Chatham House report makes clear.

Yet Western countries are rightly concerned by recent tests that have demonstrated a noticeable improvement in the scope and sophistication of Pyongyang’s capabilities, with North Korean missiles flying higher and remaining airborne for longer.⁴⁰ In 2022, North Korea launched over 90 ballistic and cruise missiles – more than in any other previous year.⁴¹ Two such launches were of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on 27 March and 18 November. These missiles have an operational range of up to 15,000 kilometres and, therefore, could potentially reach the US mainland.

Washington, naturally, seems intent on downplaying the importance of all this. There was even a report that unnamed sources in Washington were claiming that sending NK troops to fight in Russia was not a big deal for Putin, but something almost forced upon him.

This is, of course, bizarre. Putin is not going to use forces unless he wants them, as he knows that they could have risked a Biden response. My guess, for what its worth, is that Putin is paying in full for what he is getting. And what that will mean is a more capable NK missile force going forward—with important regional implications in the Pacific.