Ukrainian Paratroops Fighting South of Marinka Have Destroyed 300 Russian Vehicles

The Russians have sacrificed so many troops and so much equipment in so many sectors for so little gain that it is a wonder.

One explanation is that life for the average Russian is so miserable that the dangers of war seem like a vacation by comparison. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

The 79th Air Assault Brigade and other Ukrainian forces have destroyed more than 300 units of equipment in 6 months of fighting near Novomykhailivka south of Marinka. To seize this settlement, Russians concentrated 10 brigades and regiments totaling up to 30,000 soldiers on a narrow section of the front line. The battle for Novomykhailivka, which used to be home to only 1,500 people, began in late fall. Mariinka itself no longer actually exists (after) Russian forces intensified assaults beginning in October 2023

Why the Russia-Iran-China Axis Has Significant Vulnerabilities

The emergence of a Trilateral Axis of cooperation between China, Iran and Russia poses a threat to democracies and global economic cooperation. But each of those three brings a different set of needs and desires to the so-far informal alliance, which may make deeper military cooperation difficult. 

Iran, the most radical of the three, is also the least invested in the global economy, which is why it is most ready to embrace terrorism and extremism - which China explicitly opposes. Russia wants help attacking Ukraine and the west, but its abject failures of weaponry, military strategy and performance in what was assumed would be its easy victory over Ukraine have exposed serious weaknesses, making it a less attractive partner. China, the largest economically and militarily, is the most invested in the global order and can ill afford to have its governing party's legitimacy challenged by trade upheaval from radical attacks on its most important customers and suppliers. The result may continue to be cooperation on the margins and in the shadows rather than a full-fledged assault on the west. JL

Lucas Winter and colleagues report in War On the Rocks:

For China, creation of a formal alliance with Iran and Russia is diametrically opposed to China’s membership in an overtly anti-Western bloc with two global pariahs (which) would fly in the face of its desire to avoid a full break with the US, given its (economic) “equities in the international system." Tehran is pushing for broader cooperation than the other two feel comfortable with. Tehran has been an ardent proponent for a new world order, "reorienting it (to embrace) what China describes as “the Three Evils” — terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Russia’s challenge to the emergence of such an axis is (that) since its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been too overwhelmed to be a reliable partner.

US Air Force AI-Piloted Fighter Has Beaten Humans In Test Dog Fights

Top Gun gets technological. JL 

Jonathan Gitlin reports in ars technica:

An AI test pilot has successfully flown a jet fighter in dogfights against human opponents, the latest development for DARPA's Air Combat Evaluation program. The agency wants a machine-learning agent that can safely fly a real aircraft autonomously, with no violations of training rules as neural networks find ways to exploit situations that hadn't occurred to humans. The jet fighter is called the X-62A Variable Stability In-Flight Simulator Test Aircraft, or VISTA. It began life as an F-16D. The program has completed test flights, including the first-ever AI versus human aerial engagement within visual range,  against a human-piloted F-16. DARPA has made 100,000 lines of flight-critical software changes

How Ukrainian Drones Have Become Virtually Unstoppable Tank Killers

FPV drones are powerful and accurate enough to hit heavily armored tanks at their most vulnerable points - even flying into open hatches - rendering protection difficult. 

Defensive measures are often quickly offset by even newer and more powerful electronic countermeasures, including lasers. Experts believe the tank is not yet obsolete ant that its role will evolve, but a lot of tankers are going to die in the interim, as they are doing in Ukraine. JL 

Lara Jakes reports in the New York Times:

The drone combat in Ukraine transforming warfare has begun taking a deadly toll on a powerful symbol of military might — the tank, which is vulnerable where its heavy armor is thinnest: on the top, the rear engine block and the space between the hull and the turret. The drones used against tanks in Ukraine are accurate, equipped with a camera streaming real-time images back to their controller, who can direct them to hit tanks in their most vulnerable spots. They can “finish off” tanks already damaged so that they cannot be repaired. It is only a matter of time before countermeasures are invented to defuse even weaponized anti-drone lasers. Future battles will pit FPV drones against unmanned ground vehicles.

Russian Crimea Base Destroyed By 8 Ukraine ATACMS With 8,000 Submunitions

These rockets and their launchers were part of the last consignment of weapons the US sent to Ukraine. 

Given how much damage they can inflict on Russian targets, more could be on the way once the US aid package is approved. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army fired some—maybe all—of its M39 ATACMS at a single Russian air base in occupied Crimea. Each 100-mile-range rocket carried a thousand grenade-sized submunitions, meaning 8,000 individual explosions rocked the Russian Dzanskoy base. Imagery from the base, 100 miles south of the front, confirms the Russians lost four launchers (of) an S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile battery. They also  knocked out the S-400’s control center and four air-defense radars. Dozens of helicopters and three squadrons of attack jets also fly from Dzhankoy (so some were presumably damaged or destroyed).

Ukrainians Repel Russian Durna River Crossing Attempts Near Avdiivka

Ukrainian defenders using drones, artillery and ambush counterattacks have repelled repeated Russian attempts to cross the Durna River near Avdiivka. 

This follows a pattern of undermanned and ammo starved Ukrainians thwarting Russian attempts to advance across the front since December. With more aid now hopefully on the way, opportunities to counterattack should improve. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

The Russians tried to cross the Durna river around Semenivka, near Avdiivka. The Russians are limited by suitable crossing points over the river which makes counterattacks easier for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians destroyed Russian transport and armor with artillery and drone-dropped grenades. The Russians were struggling to hold their positions due to the large number of drones Ukrainians were using. Drone operators from the 3rd Assault Brigade also destroyed a sizeable Russian munition depot in the center of Orlivka. Russian soldiers published a video claiming they were the only 15 soldiers of their  company who survived the assault. A Russian company is usually 150 soldiers.

Were Recent Fires At Ukraine-Supplier US, UK Defense Plants Russian Sabotage?

Those mysterious fires at ammunition plants plus the arrest of Russian saboteurs in Germany suggest that accidental coincidence is not likely. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

A recent string of mysterious accidents at defense facilities in the U.S. and U.K. producing weapons and equipment for Ukraine has fueled speculation of possible Russian sabotage. A fire broke out at a military plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, on April 15, while in Monmouthshire, South Wales, an explosion occurred at a manufacturing plant of the U.K.'s largest defense contractor, on April 17. (And) on Wednesday, two Russian nationals taken into custody by German police were accused of preparing to bomb industrial and military sites. "An explosion occurred at an ammunition plant in Wales. This is the second western ammo plant in 2 days. Russians in the west are carrying out sabotage."

Russian Major Killed As TV Interview Reveals His Location To Ukraine Artillery

They also serve who spew propaganda. JL 

DailyMail online reports:

A Russian major was killed in eastern Ukraine after a propaganda TV crew broadcast his location to the Ukrainians. Footage captured the moment shells landed on the crew as they were filming near the frontlines in Kreminna, in the Luhansk oblast. Intense fighting is currently underway in the Kreminna forest and has been since the start of the year. Russia is trying to advance through the forest to re-take the small part of Luhansk it doesn’t control.

The Reasons Momentum May Again Be Shifting In Ukraine's Favor

Growing aid from Europe, the prospect of renewed aid from the US and a broadened recruit pool are bolstering Ukrainian prospects just as Russia, after almost six months of substantial manpower and ammunition advantages has failed to significantly advance anywhere along the front. 

And if that weren't enough, economic data reveal that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refining capabilities has reduced its crude exports 25%, reducing its foreign exchange income and economic performance. JL 

Michael O'Hanlon reports in the Washington Post:

With another $60 billion in U.S. aid, a boost in recruiting and a military push through a section of the front, Ukraine might, late this year or early next, liberate more of its occupied territory. Given restored U.S. support, ongoing help from Europe, (and) recent changes in Ukrainian conscription law, if Ukraine pushed through the front lines, it could then isolate and defeat Russian forces by punching through Russian lines, and could widen the breakthrough corridor and penetrate farther. Geography and topography would favor Ukraine, as it could attack Russian forces from behind, a chance to stop Russian aggression, regain its Black Sea Coast, free its citizens and defend the global order.

Ukraine Shoots Down 1st Russian Strategic Bomber - 300 Km From Frontline

Russia launches missiles from strategic bombers flying hundreds of miles away from Ukraine on the assumption that the planes are safe from being shot down by Ukraine so far away. 

That assumption is no longer valid. JL 

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

One of the Tu-22M3 strategic bombers which carried out a missile strike against Ukraine overnight on 19 April was downed by Ukraine's Air Force 300 kilometres away from Ukraine using a long-range S-200 anti-aircraft missile system. The bomber crashed near Mozdok military airfield (North Ossetia, Russia) on the border with the Stavropol Krai, where these strategic bombers of Russia's Aerospace Forces are based. Russia launches Kh-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 aircraft. This is the first successful Ukrainian destruction of a strategic bomber in the air during a combat mission.

Ukraine's Active Defense Disrupts Russian Kupiansk Assault, Stabilizes Front

Ukraine's 'active defense' strategy is gaining advantages as opportunistic Ukrainian strikes on undermanned or underprotected Russian sectors have disrupted Russia's planned Kupiansk assault.

Additional strikes on Russian troop concentrations and logistics has further delayed or derailed other Russian attacks, contributing to the stabilization of the front despite Russian troop and ammunition advantages. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate a significant capability to strike, contributing to the stabilization of the front line. Ukraine took advantage of a Russian operational pause to increase pressure around Kupiansk, raiding ammunition depots and undermining Russian logistics. Ukrainians' disruptions make the amassing of a Russian offensive difficult. In some areas, such as the strong point of Synkivka, Ukrainian forces recovered ground, and Russian forces had to retreat. Sources reported a widespread increase in looting in occupied territories, raids on civilian properties including theft of canned food, which may be an indicator of increasing Russian shortages of food, water, and clothes.

Econ 101: How Musk's Dependence On China Gave It the Data To Beat Tesla

American executives keep believing that they are the ones who will outwit China. That their product is so advanced, so essential, so special that the vast Chinese market will embrace them, forcing the Chinese government to protect their enterprise. 

But whether it's Boeing, Apple, MGM or Tesla the result is the same: China takes or steals their intellectual property and makes it available to domestic Chinese companies which then underprice the foreign competitor, force them out of the Chinese market - and then outcompete them in global markets as well. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are now in the process of driving Tesla out of China, Southeast Asia and, perhaps, out of business or forcing it to become a subsidiary of some US or European multinational. The Chinese recognize that owning intangible value like patents and software leads to creating unbeatable tangible value, so they either demand access to it as a cost of entering China - or they appropriate it in other ways. The only surprising aspect of this is that non-Chinese CEOs keep falling for it. JL

Noah Smith reports in his blog, Noahpinion:

Since July of last year Tesla lost $400 billion in market capitalization, a decline of 40%. Tesla's revenue stopped growing, it recently laid off 10% of its workforce and two top executives quit. A shadow looming over Tesla’s growth is competition from Chinese companies (which are) ramping up EV production. The same techniques China is using to defeat Tesla are used to defeat any other American competitor, a predictable cycle (affecting) multinational companies in China: a company puts factories in China, lured by cheap production and the dream of a huge market; China appropriates the company’s technology into the hands of Chinese companies; the Chinese squeeze the multinational out of the Chinese market and then outcompete the multinational in world markets.

Ukrainian Drones Convey Images Of Russians And Vehicles They're About To Destroy

This is the last photo of a Russian soldier looking up from an infantry fighting vehicle already damaged by an FPV drone as he realizes another one - which took this photo - is about to slam into the armored vehicle and kill him. 

This is the reality of the drone war in Ukraine. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

FPV drones of the 12th Azov Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine destroyed a group of Russian infantry near Terny. intelligence first spotted the armored group of Russians moving towards the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kreminna sector.Enemy infantrymen tried to hide inside a damaged infantry fighting vehicle and closed the door behind him, but this did not save them from the drone.

Russia Continues To Lose As Exposed Shortcomings Belie Its Advantages

Current headlines might suggest to some that Ukraine's position is desperate and possibly untenable. 

But with the US Congress hopefully about to approve additional funding for Ukraine, after a six month delay, Russia's vulnerabilities are revealed as or more grave than Ukraine's. The point is that Ukraine's strengths are stronger than Russia's while its weaknesses are not as weak. JL

General Ben Hodges (US Army, retired) reports in The Atlantic Council:

We are witnessing the continuing collapse of the USSR, which began in 1991. Putin’s war against Ukraine has undermined Russia’s economy and severed it from much of the West. His military has been exposed for shortcomings and corruption. Former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members have turned their backs on Russia. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. After 10 years of war, and despite every advantage, Russia still only controls under 20% of Ukraine. The Russian army has suffered hundreds of thousands of losses. The Black Sea Fleet has lost one-third of its ships. The Russian Air Force has failed its two main tasks of securing air superiority and cutting supply lines into Ukraine from the EU.

Ukraine Attacks Drive Russian Crude Exports Down 25 Percent Vs Previous 4 Years

That'll hurt foreign exchange earnings - and war-fighting capacity, to say nothing of further annoying Russian consumers. JL 

Nate Ostiller reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Russia exported around 740,000 barrels of crude per day in the 10 days leading up to April 13, a 25% decrease from the same period the previous four years. In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have launched a series of drone strikes aimed at damaging Russia's oil industry. A total of 12 Russian oil refineries were reportedly successfully hit in multiple regions deep inside Russian territory as of March 17. Ukraine also attacked one of Russia's largest oil refineries on April 2 in the city of Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan, over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from Ukraine's border.

Ukraine Drones Eliminate $100 Million Russian Nebo-U 700 Mile Capacity Radar

This creates a significant new hole in Russia's air defenses which Ukraine can now exploit. 

Ukrainian drones also damaged a Russian bomber repair factory in Tatarstan, 800 miles from the front line. JL 

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

Kyiv destroyed a sophisticated Russian radar complex using seven exploding drones. The Nebo-U radar complex was stationed in Bryansk, bordering northern Ukraine. The Nebo-U system was monitoring Ukrainian airspace between 435 - 700 miles past the border and was worth $100 million. The Nebo-U is able to detect aircraft, guided missiles, and ballistics up to a range of 372 miles. This was the second Nebo-U Ukraine had destroyed, with the first taken out in Belgorod, in Russia, near Kharkiv.

Ukraine French Hammer Missiles Are Decoys As HARMs Destroy Tracking SAM Sites

In another clever innovation, Ukraine's Air Force is using French Hammer air-to-ground missiles as decoys for Russian SAMs, eager to shoot the French missiles down as a means of taunting Ukraine's allies. 

But the actual strategy is to get the SAM sites tracking the Hammers to identify themselves as another Ukrainian plane then fires HARM anti-radar missiles and destroys the Russian defenders. JL  

Parth Satam reports in EurAsian Times:

Ukrainian Air Force Su-27s are now dropping the French-made AASM-250 Hammer air-to-ground guided munitions on Russian ground targets and are also releasing AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM) to hit Russian ground radars used to shoot down the Hammers. Ukraine is exploiting Russian enthusiasm for shooting down Hammers by using the bomb as bait for its air defenses – possibly the Buk-M1-2 medium-range or the Tor-M2 short-range AD platforms. The HARM’s homing head automatically picks up radar emissions from Russian SAM sites and guides itself there.

How Ukraine's 12th Azov Brigade Stole Russian Tank With New Drone Jammers

A Ukrainian raiding party spent three nights in no-mans land getting a damaged Russian tank operational under shellfire, then driving it back to their lines through tank-eating glide bomb craters. 

Turns out the new, multiple jamming systems are jury-rigged by Russian troops in the field and are as ineffective as 'cope cages.' But given the importance of drones to Ukraine's defense, they needed to know if new countermeasures would be necessary. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russian tanks began rolling toward the front with multiple jammers in recent weeks. A Russian T-72 festooned with jammers ran over barbed wire east of Ukrainian positions in Terny. A Ukrainian drone zoomed in and exploded. The crew bailed out and then got killed. The 12th Azov Brigade volunteered to retrieve the immobilized T-72. Engineers untangled the tank’s tracks—a job complicated by an anti-tank mine underneath the tank. They manually cranked the turret to unblock the driver’s hatch. The Ukrainians hauled 150 pound batteries, three batteries, compressed air, tools to start the tank and night-vision goggles. The raiding party drove it back through mines, shellfire and tank-eating craters.

Ukraine ATACMS Obliterate Major Russian Crimea Air Base, Command Center

Two waves of Ukrainian ATACMS missiles inflicted serious damage on one of Russia's most important military airfields at Dzanskoi, Crimea. 

There is reported to be significant destruction as well as many dead and wounded Russian personnel. JL 

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Massive explosions hit the Russian Dzhankoi military airfield in occupied Crimea early Wednesday. (It) is home to a significant military aviation infrastructure and close to 50 combat aircraft. Ballistic missiles targeted military equipment, pilots, bombers and attack helicopters. Combat units stationed at the Dzhankoi base include the 27th Combined Helicopter Regiment, the 39th Helicopter Regiment, Air Defense Command for Joint Forces South, and a logistics center storing Zircon hypersonic missiles. An initial wave of missiles with cluster munitions destroyed aircraft and caused casualties. A second wave with high explosive warheads targeted fuel reserves and ammunition storage. 30 Russian service personnel died and more than 80 were injured

The Multiple Reasons Why Ukraine Can Beat Russia

This past weekend's obliteration of Iran's attempt to attack Israel was a further demonstration of the superiority of western weapons versus those of the Russian-Iranian-Chinese alliance. 

And among the most skillful deployers of those western weapons have been Ukrainian soldiers. If the west can overcome its irrational, crippling fear of Russian escalation, Russia will be beaten. JL 

Mykola Bieleiskov reports in The Atlantic Council:

The West’s preoccupation with avoiding escalation at all costs goes against basic military doctrine and has been instrumental in preventing greater Ukrainian battlefield success. By allowing themselves to be intimidated by the threat of Russian escalation the West has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial setbacks and regain the initiative. It has prevented the Ukrainian military from building on the momentum of late 2022, and has turned a dynamic war of movement into an attritional fight. Policymakers in Europe and the US must decide whether they wish to continue with this losing strategy which will be seen as the biggest geopolitical blunder since the appeasement of the 1930s.

Russian Casualties In War's 2nd Year Are 25 Percent Higher Than In 1st

Meatgrinder tactics yield meatgrinder results, not that the Kremlin seems to care. JL 

Olga Ivshina and colleagues report in the BBC:

In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year. The term meat grinder has been used to describe the way Moscow sends waves of soldiers forward relentlessly to try to wear down Ukrainian forces and expose their locations to Russian artillery. The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022. This does not include the deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk - in eastern Ukraine. Russia's experienced soldiers are now dead or wounded, and have been replaced by people with little training or military experience. These people can't do what professional soldiers can do

Ukraine's International Legions Continue Fierce Battle Vs Russians

Ukraine's legions of international volunteers garnered much attention early in the war, but attrition, drones and strategic issues have dominated the news more recently. 

But those soldiers from the US, UK, Poland, Brazil, India, Colombia and numerous other nations continue to battle the Russians effectively despite hardships - and wherever they are needed. JL 

Tyler Hicks reports in the New York Times:

There are many reasons a foreigner might enlist to fight a war that has nothing to do with him. One is money. The open-ended contracts in Ukraine pay, on average, about $2,500 a month, a tempting sum for some of the men who came there from countries with few good economic opportunities for them. But some fighters at the post in the woods for the 2nd International Legion, created after Russia invaded in February 2022, were looking for something more. During the day, fighting flares every three or four hours, generally lasting an hour. At night came the bombs. "This is my family now."

Russia Losing 70 Percent Of Armor In Chasiv Yar Assaults Amid Ukraine's Stand

Ukraine's increasingly strong defensive stand at Chasiv Yar is costing Russian forces as much as 70% of their armor and equipment in each assault, once again degrading Russian capabilities that limit their options everywhere along the front. 

Chasiv Yar is a strategic site so the battle there will be fierce. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

During their ongoing assault on the town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are losing 50 to 70% of their military equipment. Russian forces are concentrating their efforts west of Bakhmut to capture the town by 9 May, Russia's WWII victory day. Despite facing ammunition shortages, Ukrainian forces are effectively holding their positions in the Chasiv Yar area, where the enemy has made no tactical gains in the past 24 hours. Chasiv Yar is strategically important.

Gen AI Investment Octupled Amid Overall AI Decline Due Training, Data Costs

Amid an overall decline in AI venture funding, Gen AI investment octupled. The implication may be that corporate users perceive more immediate productivity and financial benefits from Gen AI while AI generally faces growing consumer and government concern. 

Notable among these trends is that tech industry development of new LLM models now far surpasses that from academia and that the US is far ahead of China as AI continues to surpass human performance on a number of important benchmarks. JL 

Michael Nunez reports in Venture Beat:

While private AI investment declined for a second year, funding for “generative AI” octupled to $25.2 billion. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic closed massive funding rounds. Private companies produced 51 notable machine learning models last year, compared to only 15 from academia as AI surpassed human performance on several benchmarks, yet trails on more complex tasks like competition-level mathematics, visual commonsense reasoning, and planning.”  Costs to train cutting-edge AI systems skyrocketed (as) the training costs of state-of-the-art AI models reached unprecedented levels. (And) “robust standardized evaluations for LLM are  lacking, which complicates efforts to systematically compare the risks and limitations of top AI models.”

Ukraine Drone Operators' Skill, Precision and Lethality Have Increased Exponentially

Flying around anti-drone cages and into open hatches has become something of a battle honor for increasingly skilled drone pilots. JL 

Chris Panella reports in Business Insider:

Operators on both sides are flying unmanned aerial vehicles with astonishing precision and lethality, destroying everything from individual soldiers to expensive, high-value targets like top tanks. In one (recent example), the drone flies towards the tank, navigates carefully through what appears to be a cage built on top of it and down into the tank's open hatch before exploding and, apparently, setting off the ammo inside. Drone operators have become invaluable assets, as well as prime targets. Operators have been documented using their drones to target each other, hoping to take out their enemy's capabilities for flying the UAVs that have complicated battlefield maneuver and combat operations.

Ukraine Delivers 3 Times More Drones In First Months 2024 Than All 2023

Ukraine's drone forces have prevented a Russian breakthrough despite the mismatch in troop strength and artillery ammunition. JL 

Kateryna Tschchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Three times more drones have been provided to frontline Ukrainian forces since the beginning of 2024 than during all of 2023. 99% of drones delivered to the front are Ukrainian-made. Drones that are now most widely deployed in combat zones such as FPV drones, attack drones, night vision drones, and multicopter drones, provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a significant advantage and can compensate for "limited resources when it comes to artillery".  Drones will soon be able to travel more than 1,200 kilometres into Russia. Naval surface vessels (or sea drones) currently used to "clean up" the Black Sea will soon be used in the Sea of Azov as well.

As Tesla Lays Off 10 Percent Of Staff, Stock Plummets, Top Execs Quit

An aging lineup of models, increased competition from China and other US manufacturers, cooling demand from consumers due to prices as well as uncertainty about charging station availability - and Musk's penchant for provocative political statements which alienate Tesla's most likely buyers have all contributed to a decline in demand which has affected sales and profits. JL 

Rebecca Elliott and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Tesla plans to slash more than 10% of its global workforce and two of Elon Musk’s top deputies said they were leaving the company, a shake-up that reflects a broader cooling demand for electric vehicles. Tesla stock fell Monday morning. Tesla's shares were down 3% as broader markets rose. Tesla’s stock closed down more than 5% Monday. It has fallen 35% in 2024. Tesla this month reported its first year-over-year decline in quarterly deliveries since 2020, stoking concern about the company’s prospects. Tesla delivered 387,000 vehicles globally in the first three months of 2024, down 8.5% from a year earlier. The company has an aging lineup and faces fierce competition, especially in China.

Why Did US, NATO Planes and Missiles Defend Israel But Not Ukraine?

The first lesson appears to be that the US and NATO do not want volatile, potentially reckless nuclear states with authoritarian rulers like Russia and Israel to be provoked into using their nuclear weapons. The second is that the Republican Party of the US can be bought - or rented - in return for help winning elections. And it helps if the paying country happens to have a dictatorial right-wing government.

But the corollary that most countries around the globe will take from this is that they'd better speed up their acquisition of nukes. And that they need to figure out what the Republicans' price is... JL  

Anne Applebaum reports in The Atlantic:

Why did American and European jets scramble to help Israel, but not Ukraine? One difference is nuclear power. Russia has nuclear weapons. That has made the U.S. and Europe reluctant to enter the skies over Ukraine. Israel also has nuclear weapons, but that means the U.S., Europe, and even some Arab states are eager to make sure Israel is never provoked enough to use them against Iran. The most obvious conclusion to every country including Ukraine and Iran: Nuclear weapons make you much safer. The other obvious conclusion: A part of the Republican Party—one large enough to matter—can be co-opted, lobbied, or purchased outright.

Ukraine Missile Attack Destroys Russian Command Post In Crimea

Ukraine is now able to strike Crimean targets at will. Russia has reportedly withdrawn all major Black Sea Fleet ships from that vicinity. JL 

Kateryna Hodunova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces on April 15 carried out a missile attack on a command post in Russian-occupied Crimea where top Russian offices were deployed. The military base of the Russian 810th Marine Brigade in Sevastopol had been hit. Russian aircraft were recorded taking off during the air raid. Russia had withdrawn nearly all its major ships from ports in occupied Crimea following successful Ukrainian strikes.

Only 3 Percent of Russians Survive Attacks Against Ukraine Bilohorivka Defenses

The Russians chose to attack uphill against entrenched Ukrainian defenders. The ensuing slaughter was as complete as it was predictable. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Some of the most intense clashes on the front are taking place in the Bilohorivka area. The key battle has become White Mountain, a chalk quarry. Ukrainian troops enjoy a tactical advantage because the high ground allows them to establish fire control over the surrounding area. The Russians drove over a road covered in landmines that were pre-placed by Ukrainian drones. This led to the whole column being immobilized, exposing it to FPV drones and artillery, destroying it. The surviving Russian stormtroopers were hunted down and killed in the nearby dugouts.

Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized Brigade Wipes Out More Russian Armor Near Avdiivka

The decimation of Russian units continues even as Ukrainian units suffer shortages of ammunition and men. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

On April 12, Russians engaged T-62M tanks and light armored vehicles with infantry in an assault. The defenders used FPV kamikaze drones and UAVs with ammunition. At least one T-62M tank was equipped with a KMT-7 tracked mine trawl to overcome minefields. Published footage from the Ukrainian military shows FPV drones taking turns hitting Russian tanks and the other armored vehicles. One T-62M, and a motorcycle were destroyed, as well as 2 MT-LB tracked tractors, which Russians use as armored personnel carriers. Three enemy tanks were damaged.

Ukraine's New Loitering Drones Destroy Russian Air Defenses To Prep F-16s

Ukraine is using new loitering drones to attack Russian air defense capabilities in preparation for the arrival of F-16s which can then begin attacking Russian troop concentrations with Ukraine's own glide bombs. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Ukraine’s drone industry has begun mass-producing a Lancet analogue, the Ram II, which ranges as far as 19 miles with a seven-pound warhead and strikes within three feet of its target. It loiters, scans and strikes with only minimal input from a human operator. Since appearing along the front line in recent weeks, the RAM II has begun wreaking havoc on Russian air defenses. In a single day on April 9, five Russian air defense vehicles were hit by Ram IIs. Ukraine’s RAM IIs will push back Russian air-defenses and make it safer for Ukrainian jets to glide-bomb the Russians

Russia Fires Commanders For Losses To Ukraine At Cross-Dnipro, Robotyne

More Russian army commanders scapegoated to cover up Kremlin missteps. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Two Russian commanders have been dismissed for failing to recapture southern parts of Ukraine that were lost during Kyiv's counteroffensive last summer. The commander of Russia's 18th Combined Arms Army (CAA), which has been fighting near Krynky, in the southern Kherson Oblast, was fired along with the commander of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which had been fighting near Robotyne in the Zaporizhia Oblast. It noted "failed" attempts by the 18th CAA to repel Ukrainian attacks and to push Kyiv's forces from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro. The 70th Regiment suffered "significant degradation" during counterattacks to retake territory.

Ukraine Drones Inflict Terrible Toll As Russians Attack On Chinese ATVs, Motorcycles

The Russian tactic appears to be that the smaller vehicles are too fast and hard to hit, but Ukrainian drone pilots appear to be disproving that theory. JL  

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Russian units have been employing unorthodox combat transport such as Chinese ATV and motorcycles to carry out attacks over the weekend. Ukrainian troops had repelled ten Russian ground assaults in the area of Chasiv Yar. Chinese ATV  rigged with smoke generators are intended to overcome Ukrainian drone swarms with speed and self-generated concealment. (But) Ukrainian drone pilots attack the Chinese “golf carts” from unexpected angles, or wait for the vehicle to stop and then hitting it with several strikes. Ukraine’s 68th Mountain Assault Infantry Brigade, 67th Mechanized Infantry Brigade and 126th Territorial Defense Brigade are deployed to the Chasiv Yar sector.

How Russia, Iran, China, N. Korea Have Become 1 United Enemy Fighting 1 War

It would be a grave mistake to assume that Russian attacks on Ukraine, Hamas and Iranian attacks on Israel and Chinese confrontations with Taiwan and the Phillipines are unconnected. 

The civilized world now faces an unprecedented coalition of dictatorships intent on imposing their will upon democratic peoples. This battle is going to require determination, military might and economic sacrifice. JL 

Eliot Cohen reports in The Atlantic:

Iran’s coalition with Russia, China, and North Korea now plays an important role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Iranian drones fly every night at Ukrainian cities, stressing air defenses to pave the way for Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. The Russia–China–Iran–North Korea coalition are increasingly willing to use open violence (against Ukraine, Israel, and the Philippines), and to threaten use of nuclear weapons. They are united by a belief that their moment is coming, when an indecisive West will not fight. The target of the coalition is the overthrow of the American-led world order. That a coalition of the West were willing to act in countering the Iranian missile barrage is a promising sign.

The Reason Generative AI Is Reducing Companies' Hiring Expectations

AI may not be leading to noticeable layoffs yet, but it is already affecting corporate hiring.

The expectation of productivity and efficiency gains from use of generative AI is changing the way companies are thinking about their hiring needs, reducing expectations for future employee head counts. This will have a cascading impact on real estate and related costs which could boost profits - but also boost unemployment and demand for social services. JL   

Isabelle Bousquette reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Generative AI is reshaping hiring at many companies as the technology will pay off if it helps them employ fewer people to do more work. If Gen AI makes workers more efficient, companies will save money by doing more with smaller workforces. While using generative AI doesn’t necessarily portend layoffs, (it) hints at the need for companies to hire less. The IT job market is expected to shrink, driven in part by declining demand for non-AI skills.  A tool determines the cost efficiency of each AI model, based on parameters such as the number of requests and the length of inputs and outputs. It also helps determine whether it is more cost effective to stick with a traditional process.

Russian Attacks on Cross-Dnipro, Robotyne and Orkhiv All Repulsed

Ukrainian defenders continue to outperform their Russian attackers through better intelligence,  coordination, training - and determination. JL 

Ukrinform reports:

Ukrainian defenders repelled six enemy attacks in the Orikhiv sectors, as well as three assaults on the left bank of the Dnipro River. "They carried out six assaults in the Orikhiv sector, including one near Robotyne and five near Staromaiorske. They were unsuccessful. On the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, the Russians carried out three assaults on our positions. Having suffered losses, the enemy retreated."

The Death Zone: How Drones Paralyze Ukraine's Battlefields, Stop Russian Attacks

If it moves, it dies. There are so many drones patrolling Ukrainian skies that almost nothing or no one can move without being spotted and targeted. 

The result is that despite Russia's current advantage in men and equipment, it has not been able to break through because Ukrainian drones make it difficult, if not impossible to advance. JL 

Siobhan O'Grady and Kostiantyn Khudov report in the Washington Post:

So many drones patrol the skies over Ukraine’s front lines - hunting for any signs of movement - that Ukrainian and Russian troops have little ability to move on the battlefield without being spotted, and blown up. Drones to make it difficult for the Russians to press forward without putting expensive Russian fighting vehicles at risk whenever they move. The surge in small drones in Ukraine has turned the area beyond either side of the zero line - known as “the gray zone” - into “the death zone.”  Those who dare to move day or night under the prying eyes of enemy drones “are dead immediately. It is a stalemate, because if you are out in the open, you will be hunted.”

Apple Reduces Limits On Used Parts For iPhone Repairs

This is not a goodwill gesture to customers. Apple is bowing to the inevitable as Oregon passed a law denying the company's restrictive practices and which more than a dozen other US states are now actively working on passing.

This should reduce repair costs for iPhone users. JL 

Tripp Mickle and Brian Chen report in the New York Times:

Apple said Thursday that it would relax limits on repairing newer iPhones with used parts like screens, batteries and cameras, a reversal from its previous practice of using software to encourage people to work with new and more expensive Apple-approved parts. The change comes weeks after Oregon passed a law outlawing Apple’s practice of tying parts to software, which is known as “parts pairing.” Similar bills are being considered in Colorado and more than a dozen other states.

Chinese Russian Scholar Explains Why Russia Is Certain To Lose In Ukraine

What may be most interesting about this is that, given the way China works, no scholar would dare submit an article like this to a respected global publication without permission from someone higher up in the Chinese government. 

The conclusion that Russia will eventually inevitably lose in Ukraine thus suggests that this is at least one scenario Chinese leadership is contemplating as possible - and that they are not necessarily worried about it as it strengthens China's global position vis a vis Russia in the long run. JL 

Feng Yujun, Peking University, reports in The Economist:

Four factors make Russia’s eventual defeat inevitable: the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians; international support for Ukraine, which remains broad; Russian deindustrialisation suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union; Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, lacking access to accurate intelligence and an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Ukraine is more flexible and effective. The war has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat Russia’s poses and jolted NATO. The war has also convinced former Soviet republics Russia’s imperial ambition threaten their independence and territorial integrity. And although China has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, it has not systematically violated them.

Ukrainian Air Force Destroys Russian Luhansk Command Center

Yesterday's Ukrainian attack by jets carrying cruise missiles, combined with the evident success of Israeli, US, Saudi, French and British jets destroying Iranian drones last night, underscores the value of delivering F-16s to Ukraine. JL  

Militarnyi reports:

A command post was hit during a missile attack on an enemy military facility in the village of Verhulivka, Luhansk region. The enemy used it to command and control military units of the ‘Center’ grouping. The strike was carried out on April 13 at around 11:30 a.m. in the area of a machine-building plant, where Russian invasion forces were based. The strike was carried out using Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles. A thick black column of smoke rose over the city after the facility was hit.

Why Russia Fears War Between Iran and Israel Hurts Its Ukraine Strategy

Russia fears a full-blown war between Iran and Israel because such a conflict will limit Iran's ability to continue to supply crucial military aid to Russia in Ukraine. Russia is dependent on Iran now for drones and missiles. A war with Israel would force Iran to divert production from Ukraine to its own battles. Last night, Iran shot 300 drones at Israel while Russia fired very few at Ukraine compared to the past few weeks. This suggests it may already be saving its drone inventory in case of future shortages. 

Even worse for Russia, if Iran and Israel begin a regional war, Iran may demand aid from Russia, which it is not able to supply, weakening its relationship. Iran's attack may now also provide impetus for the US Congress to approve further aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, which also negatively impacts China's strategic interests. In short, all the parties involved have limited resources and not necessarily aligned interests. JL

Michelle Grise reports in The National Interest:

Russia has found a critical military supplier in Iran, which has provided Moscow with (drones), ballistic missiles, and fighter jets. A closer relationship with Iran improves Russia’s ability to withstand international sanctions. A broader regional conflict between Israel and Iran would limit Iran’s ability to continue as a military supplier to Russia. Tehran may demand more support when Russia has limited capacity to provide (distracted by Ukraine, Russia failed to intervene on behalf of ally Armenia as Azerbaijani military forces overran Nagorno-Karabakh, suggesting Russia lacks the ablility). The Ukraine war has also contributed to Russia’s growing dependence on China. Russia would be especially sensitive to Chinese attempts to encroach on its influence in the Middle East.