Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Airfield, Refineries In Krasnodar, Almost 1,000 Km Away

Long range Ukrainian drones hit a Russian military airfield and oil refineries in the Krasnodar region.

Work at the refineries had to be suspended. JL  

Olga Voitovych and Loren Said-Morehouse report in CNN:

Ukraine launched drone attacks on Russia’s Kushchevsk military airfield in the southern Krasnodar region, as well as two oil refineries. Fires broke out at the three locations.The Security Service of Ukraine “continues to effectively hit military and infrastructure facilities” in Russia in a bid to reduce Moscow’s “potential for warfare.” TASS reported that the oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban had partially suspended operations. Work at the plant had been “partially suspended” after 10 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) flew into the refinery, causing a fire to break out.

Ukrainian Forces Have "Ample Mines and Mortars" To Repel Russian Assaults

The picture being painted by western journalists continues to be more pessimistic than experience on the ground would suggest is accurate. JL 

Julia Struck reports in the Kyiv Post:

The Ukrainian military possesses an ample supply of mines and mortar ammunition to deter and repel Russian assaults. There is a concerning trend of ammunition shortages within air defense forces. “But battles in open fields versus urban environments cannot be compared. Factors such as terrain, weather, and logistics play significant roles.” With the arrival of warmer weather, the number of Russian drones in the sky has increased, aided by clearer weather, resulting in heightened Russian shelling. There is a significant shortage of personnel on the front lines. Every military profession requires specific skills and knowledge, and being a mortarman is no exception.

Google, Microsoft Both Claim To Profit From Generative AI. One Is Lying.

Both Microsoft and Google just released better than expected quarterly results. And both claim to be harnessing the power of generative AI to improve their products and services as well as their financials. 

But a closer examination suggests that while Microsoft is actually beginning to provide real benefits to corporate and individual customers with gen AI, Google is still struggling to figure out both how to do that and how to prevent it from undermining their core money-making search business. JL

Paresh Dave reports in Wired:

60% of the Fortune 500 are using Copilot for Microsoft Office 365, that uses gen AI to help write emails and documents. 65% are using Azure Cloud  that enables access to gen AI software from ChatGPT-maker OpenAI. Microsoft now has 1.8 million customers for GitHub Copilot. (But) by providing more direct answers to searchers, Google could end up with fewer opportunities to show search ads if people spend less time doing additional, refined searches. The ads Google shows also could have to shift. While tests show users exposed to gen-AI-search are doing more searches, they are also less profitable for Google because the underlying technology is costlier than its longstanding systems.

Determined Ukrainian Defenders Hold Chasiv Yar, Awaiting Renewed US Aid

Ukrainian units control the high ground west of Bakhmut on which Chasiv Yar sits and that provides a tactical advantage. They have held out against ferocious Russian assaults, mostly with drones and tenacious defense. 

The promise of renewed US military aid has buoyed spirits and fueled their determination to hold on. JL 

Ian Lovett and Nikita Nikolaienko report in the Wall Street Journal:

Located on a ridge overlooking Bakhmut, (scene of) the bloodiest battle of the war, Chasiv Yar is a valuable strategic prize. "It's the high ground." Ukrainian commanders say they can hold off the Russians. Attacking, as the Russians are doing now, is always more costly than defending. To get to Chasiv Yar, Russian troops would have to cross a canal that runs through the east of the city, then make it up a steep hill. Ukrainian troops say that many problems will be solved once their stocks of artillery ammunition are replenished. With more artillery cover, they will also take fewer casualties

Why Ukraine's Elite Azov Brigade Is Beating Russians In Serebryansky Forest

The Azov Brigade is perceived to be elite, which means better training, better officers, better equipment - and a culture contrary to the top-down Soviet style still prevalent in too many Ukrainian units. 

The result has delivered successful repulsion of Russian attacks in multiple locales, most recently the Serebryansky Forest east of Lyman, which has been reduced to matchsticks by relentless Russian bombardment. JL 

Dan Sabbagh reports in The Guardian:

Azov has defeated the Russian attackers in the Serebryansky forest. The 5,000-plus strong brigade is one of the military’s elite forces, comprised entirely of volunteers. Members say there is a waiting list for recruits, allowing it to pick and choose. Jigh morale, unit cohesion and a willingness to allow all ranks to be heard, not necessarily shown elsewhere, was a key to success – contrasting the style with the traditional “old fart” hierarchical model of Soviet command. A culture of “mutual respect” is intended to ensure soldiers’ lives are not wasted and commanders emphasise the young age profile of the brigade

Ukraine Halts Russians Near Avdiivka, Inflicts Significant Losses On Troops, Armor

Although the situation around Chasiv Yar remains challenging due to the still unexplained collapse of Ukraine's 115th Brigade, multiple other units have now been rushed to fill the gap, are successfully counterattacking and appear to have stemmed the Russian advance. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian forces suffered significant losses in attempts to outflank Ukrainian defenses near Avdiivka. The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade destroyed 2 Russian D-30 howitzers and counterattacked with Bradley fighting vehicles. The 109th Territorial Brigade destroyed 3 Russian MSTA-S self-propelled guns, a Grad-21 rocket launcher and a T-90M tank. As the Russians continued to execute infantry attacks, no matter the cost, the Ukrainians focused on disrupting Russian logistics and destroying reinforcements. The 56th Motorized Brigade and 109th Territorial Brigade's FPV drones destroyed multiple Russian transport trucks filled with infantry. The 24th Mechanized Brigade destroyed a cluster of Russian transport trucks with drone-dropped grenades.

How Ukraine Has Applied AI For Targeting, Threat Assessing And Sentiment Analysis

AI is on the battlefield - and all around it. Ukraine is using for improved targeting sophistication, for identifying and prioritizing potential threats and for sentiment analysis that estimates the cognitive impact of attacks like those on Crimea. 

This is a literal force multiplier for an underresourced military. JL 

Callum Fraser reports in the International Institute For Strategic Studies:

The application of AI in war is now grounded in reality. AI focuses on decision-support, intelligence analysis and targeting. AI has allowed planners to sift through huge swathes of data faster than humans. Kyiv is using AI to understand how targeted military activities have a cognitive effect on the adversary, such as sentiment analysis of how a rocket attack on the Antonovsky Bridge at Kherson impacted Russian morale. The ability to measure physical and cognitive impact is a huge advantage for an army with limited resources. With increased capacity to exploit the information environment for military effect, Ukraine has used AI to increase targeting sophistication. It has also applied AI to identify those who might perpetrate espionage and leverages AI in its cyber defences to scan for threats.

Ukraine's Pilots Flying Soviet-Era Jets Use iPads To Launch New NATO Weapons

Continuing the innovative and lethal combination of Soviet-era equipment used by Ukraine with the modern weapons they are being supplied by NATO, Ukrainian Air Force pilots flying Soviet and Russia fighter jets have iPads in their cockpits which allow the Russian planes to launch modern missiles and rockets. JL 

Thomas Newdick reports in The Drive, Warzone:

The Ukrainian Air Force is using iPads, or similar tablets in the cockpits of its Soviet-era jets to enable rapid integration of modern Western air-to-ground weapons. "The Ukrainians have a lot of Russian and Soviet-era aircraft. Working with the Ukrainians, we’ve been able to take many Western weapons and get them to work on their aircraft controlled by an iPad (used) by the pilot. And they’re flying it in conflict a week after we get it to him.” Such a setup, with a pylon adapted for the weapons being employed and paired with a tablet, would not need any wiring. The pylon contains hardware that handles this with a short-range wireless device, like Bluetooth, connecting with the pad in the cockpit.

Ukraine Destroys Russian KA- 52 Attack Helicopter At Moscow Airport

That a helicopter was destroyed is noteworthy but less important than that Ukrainian military intelligence was able to do so by penetrating a Russian military airport in the supposedly heavily defended  Moscow area. JL 

Dinara Kalilova and Kateryna Denisova report in the Kyiv Independent:

A Russian multirole helicopter Ka-32 was destroyed at the Ostafyevo airfield in Moscow overnight on April 26 as a result of a Ukrainian military intelligence operation. The Ostafyevo airfield, located in Moscow's southern suburbs, is owned by Russia's Defense Ministry and operated jointly with Gazpromavia, which is part of the country's state-run energy giant Gazprom.

Russian Attacks West of Avdiivka "Marginal,' Unlikely To Be 'Operationally Significant'

Russian attacks west of Avdiivka launched in the face of Ukrainian ammunition shortages are now being termed 'marginal,' and unlikely to result in an operationally significant penetration. 

Ukraine has built strong defensive lines further west which are stronger than those to which they retreated after the withdrawal from Avdiivka. With more US and NATO supplies now arriving, those defenses will be even tougher. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have been marginal, with Russian forces advancing at most roughly five kilometers in depth since April 18. Russian forces continue offensive operations west of Avdiivka but have so far only achieved gradual marginal gains west and southwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces will have to replenish and reinforce attacking units and will not be able to maintain the tempo of offensive operations required to advance. Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka, but are unlikely to develop into an operationally significant penetration, let alone cause the collapse of the Ukrainian defense west of Avdiivka.

US, Ukraine Develop New M1A1 Tank Tactics To Counter Drone Threat

Widespread use of FPV drones has made the use of armored vehicles considerably more risky than in previous conflicts. 

Ukraine has temporarily withdrawn its tanks from the front as it works with the US and NATO allies to develop new tactics which will make tanks deployment less vulnerable and more effective. JL 

Vira Kravchuk reports in Euromaidan Press:

The US agreed to provide Ukraine with 31 Abrams tanks in January 2023. (But) battlefield dynamics have changed considerably since then, due to the significant presence of Russian surveillance and hunter-killer drones, which made it challenging for Ukraine to protect the tanks from being quickly detected and targeted. Ukraine has sidelined the tanks from the front lines for the time being as the US will now collaborate with the Ukrainians to develop new strategies.

Many US Women Choose Permanent Contraception After Dobbs Abortion Ruling

The political implications of the Dobbs decision were apparent within months as Americans angry at the arrogant abridgement of their rights - which polls had made clear for years - voted overwhelmingly to defeat Republican candidates for office up and down the ballot. 

The broader socio-economic implications are now coming into better focus and reveal the life-changing decisions Americans feel forced to make in the wake of extremist right wing policies. These decisions may affect birth rates, employment, immigration and global economic competitiveness. JL 

The Economist reports:

On june 24th 2022 America’s Supreme Court ruled, in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organisation, to let states set their own laws on abortion. Since then 14 have banned abortion completely. The journal of the american medical assoc study found a sharp jump in permanent contraceptive procedures among both men and women in the months after the Dobbs decision. Some feared a broader crackdown on contraception. That would suggest permanent contraception, rather than a temporary method, is becoming more prevalent among young people. The decisions that Dobbs is forcing on young Americans may affect their lives in ways that were not widely anticipated.

Ukrainians At Krasnohorivka Stop "Garage Tank" With Mines, Drones

The Russians are experimenting with more armored vehicle anti-drone defenses. Ukrainian soldiers call one of them the 'Garage tank' because it looks like it carries its own garage.

Another is called 'the Barbecue' because it has metal grills all around it. A major problem with that one is that there is only one 'door' to the grill, which in the tank's rear. Soldiers who can't get to it fast enough after a drone attack get 'barbecued.' So far, none of the Russian solutions to FPV drones, including electronic jammers, appear to work. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

A Russian tank with a giant anti-drone superstructure tried to storm the positions near Krasnohorivka. A colossal sheet metal structure was installed on the Russian tank, supplemented by an electronic warfare system to protect against attack drones. Mine trawls were also attached to the tank to clear the track. Following a style previously observed in Russian operations in Syria, this tank led a column of several IFVs as they advanced to break through Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian military was still able to stop this tank

Russian Oil Refining Drops To 10 Month Low, Exports Down To 6 Month Low

Ukraine's strategic bombing with drones and missiles of Russia's oil refining and export capabilities is beginning to have a significant impact on its economy, which may not be sustainable since Russia produces little else of value to world markets. JL 

Artur Kryzhnyi reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Russia's average daily oil refining rate fell to the lowest weekly level in ten months after Ukrainian drone attacks hit major facilities. Russian ports' weekly exports of petrol dropped to 54,000 tonnes, a six-month low. Russia's high-octane fuel production fell for the fourth consecutive month due to the refinery repairs caused by the UAV attacks. "The decrease in shipments is due to the ban on the export of gasoline introduced by the Russian government, which began to operate on 1 March of this year." Russia has requested Kazakhstan to be prepared to deliver 100,000 tonnes of petrol due to fuel shortages

Why Meta Stock Sank 15 Percent On News Of Unexpectedly High AI Spending

The primary reason may be regulatory risk for Meta which has been openly contemptuous of government authorities in the past. 

But Zuckerberg's insistence on continuing to invest substantial sums in his highly touted metaverse, which is widely perceived to have failed, has also raised questions about the company's strategic acumen and discipline, given that it is largely controlled by the whims of one individual. JL

The BBC reports:

Shares of Meta went down more than 15% in after-hours trading in New York despite the tech giant revealing strong earnings figures. The firm said it now expected to spend between $35bn and $40bn, (£28bn-32bn) in 2024, up from an earlier prediction of $30-$37bn. "The biggest risk [for Meta] remains regulatory. More than 50 countries are due to have elections this year, which hugely increases uncertainty" and can spook advertisers.

How "21st Century Tech In 19th Century Trenches" Gives Ukraine An Advantage

Data, algorithms, drones and other new technologies are helping Ukraine counter Russia's advantage in men and materiel. 

The question is to what extent it can now anticipate as well as react, which would stymie Russia's military. JL 

David Sanger reports in the New York Times:

Commanders have a new way to put a full picture of Russia’s movements and communications into one big, user-friendly picture, employing algorithms to predict where troops are moving and where attacks might happen. Some of tech’s most prominent figures are at work on national security issues, (as) the US is harnessing its competitive advantage in technology to maintain superiority over Russia and China. (But) the experience in Ukraine has underscored how difficult it is to get 21st-century data into 19th-century trenches as a generation of new weapons learn to evade Russian air defenses and reconfigure themselves if some drones in the swarm are shot down.

Russian Suffers Most Casualties In Single Day Of War Yesterday

Increased Russian offensive efforts invariably lead to significant increases in Russian casualties and losses of armored vehicles, many of which are now exceeding daily records set since the invasion began. JL 

Brendan Cole and David Brendan report in Newsweek:

Another 1,040 Russian troops were "eliminated" between Wednesday and Thursday, which if accurate would make that 24-hour period the deadliest for Moscow's forces since 1,050 were reported eliminated on March 22. Russian forces' losses of four kinds of equipment are about to hit notable milestones: on Thursday, in the previous 24 hours, Russia had lost 14 armored fighting vehicles; Ukraine has destroyed 1,000 Russian drones, after downing 10 on Wednesday; and 28 artillery systems were taken out Wednesday

Ukraine's 47th and 100th Brigades Counterattack At Ocheretyne

There is no question that everyone in Ukraine is tired. The news of renewed US military aid has bolstered morale, but much damage has been done. 

A failed replacement maneuver at Ocheretyne, west of Avdiivka, led to a gap in the line, which Russian forces have attempted to exploit. Counterattacking units from the exhausted 47th Brigade, which thought is was heading for a rest - and from the 100th, which is underarmed - are now fighting to close the gap and halt the Russians. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka. But the 115th Brigade failed to hold the line. So Ukraine ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade - a former territorial brigade, the equivalent of a U.S. Army National Guard unit - to counterattack. "The Russian advance was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade”(and) the withdrawing 47th Mechanized Brigade turned around and rejoined the fight.

ATACMS Secretly Shipped To Ukraine Already Hit Crimean Airfield, Russian Troops

The US secretly shipped ATACMS missiles to Ukraine last month, which have already been used to destroy a Russian military airfield in Crimea and troop concentrations in Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

The implication is that these missiles have a devastating impact and their deployment is a closely guarded secret. JL  

Courtney Kube reports in NBC:

The U.S. provided Ukraine with powerful long-range ballistic missiles for the first time earlier this month, and its military has already used them twice in the last week against Russian forces. The first strike was 100 miles inside Crimea’s border on the morning of April 17, targeting a Russian military airfield. The Ukrainian military used the U.S.-provided ATACMS, for the second time Tuesday night, targeting Russian forces east of the southeastern Ukrainian town of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The administration did not reveal at the time that it was sending Ukraine the long-range missiles for operational security reasons.

Why New US Aid To Ukraine Will Force Russia To Reconsider Its Strategy

The Russians spent all winter and spring trying to attack Ukrainian defenses. They have little to show for it but thousands of casualties and hundreds of destroyed armored vehicles. 

With new US aid, Ukraine can now strike strategic targets in Russia and anywhere in occupied Ukraine. If Russia couldnt prevail when Ukraine was at its weakest, it's time has passed. It will have find a way out. JL 

David Ignatius reports in the Washington Post:

The potential game changers in the conflict are the newly arriving ATACM-300 medium-range missiles. These precision weapons will allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian-occupied territory in Crimea, Donbas and coastal regions, hitting Russian airfields, supply depots, staging areas and command-and-control centers in Ukraine. (And) new air-defense weapons for Ukraine “will again limit the use of Russian aviation at will." Ukraine’s air defenses will be bolstered by the “FrankenSAM” program to adapt Soviet-built launchers to use U.S. surface-to-air missiles. “The Russians are as tired and demoralized as the Ukrainians. In the longer term, Russia will have to reconsider its strategy.”

Ukraine Drones Destroy Russian Fuel Depots, Electricity Substations

Ukrainian long range drone attacks on Russian fuel supplies and electricity generation facilities are intended to degrade Russian military capabilities as well as affect the morale of Russian civilans in these areas which are far from the front line. JL 

Alisa Orlova and Kateryna Zakharchenko report in the Kyiv Post:

Russian fuel storage facilities in Yartsevo and Razdorovo, as well as electric substations in Kaluga and Bryansk, located in the Smolensk region, were hit by drones early Wednesday, April 24th. The attacks resulted in the destruction of 26,000 cubic meters of Russian fuel stored at these facilities. Another oil depot in the Voronezh region was hit by the drone attack as well. The primary objective was to disrupt the energy infrastructure supporting Russian military industry facilities. Following the attacks, certain areas reported experiencing disruptions in electricity and water supply.

As Casualties Rose In March, Russia Sentenced Record Numbers For Desertion

As casualties continue to rise, Russian courts have sentenced a record number of soldiers for desertion. Most are returned to the front for service in Storm Z 'meat attack' units. 

Asylum applications to western nations by Russians attempting to avoid being conscripted also hit a record in March. JL 

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

In March 2024, Russian military courts sentenced a record high members of the armed forces of Russia for desertion. The total number of cases since partial mobilization in September 2022 is 7,400, with the Moscow area receiving the highest number. Many of the soldiers who have been tracked down and appear in military court are given suspended sentences, returned to their units and to the front. Asylum requests in Western nations from Russian nationals avoiding military service have (also) reached record levels

How New Aid Can Change the War's Momentum in Ukraine

Even before the US aid bill passed, Russian leaders were trying to find ways to reduce its punishingly high casualty rates. 

The new weapons and ammunition will enhance Ukrainian defenses while providing Ukraine's troops with the means to make additional opportunistic counterattacks. This will force Russia to change tactics and objectives, reducing its options. JL 

German Lopez reports in the New York Times:

The additional aid will make a meaningful difference, helping Ukraine restock pivotal artillery shells and antiaircraft munitions. Some will go for training to help address a Ukrainian shortage in personnel by preparing newer recruits for the front more quickly. It will also help Ukraine’s forces use weapons from Western allies like Abrams tanks and F-16 jets. Ukraine is likely to put aid to work on the eastern front. It could halt Russia’s recent progress, defend Kharkiv and territory along the Black Sea coastline. “With more aid, Ukraine will be able to solidify its defenses and keep its most important cities." If all goes well, Ukraine could launch an offensive campaign in 2025 to retake territory.

Cyber Startup Funding Jumps 69 Percent As AI, Operations Focus Offered

In an otherwise relatively sluggish venture funding environment, investor interest in  cybersecurity startups has jumped 69% between Q1 2024 and the last quarter of 2023.

Among the reasons are the proliferation of AI applications for cybersecurity as well as solutions focused on operational needs that may become among the first AI offerings designed to immediately address specific threats to business and other organizations' needs. JL 

Chris Metinko reports in CrunchBase:

Venture funding was still sluggish, but cybersecurity startups saw love from investors in the first quarter of 2024. Cybersecurity startups raised $2.7 billion in 154 deals in Q1, a 69% increase from the previous quarter, when cyber startups raised just $1.6 billion in 148 deals. VCs see value investing in cyber even as IT budgets are cut and competition increases. A big difference between Q1 and the previous quarter was 9 cybersecurity startup funding rounds of $100 million or more. Cyber startups trumpet the use of AI for automation or help provide guardrails, but operational technology security, IoT security platforms and cybersecurity for small and medium-sized enterprises also attract interest.

Cruise Missile Dropped on Belgorod Is 21st Russian Self-Bombing In 2 Months

This may reflect a loss of trained operators and the increased difficulty in sourcing targeting electronics.

On the plus side, this provides good practice in taking cover for the locals. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

An X-59 missile was discovered in a field near the village of Krasnoye in Russia's Belgorod region on April 19. Belgorod is located near the Ukrainian border and houses Russian military bases. The region has been rocked by explosions throughout Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with local authorities regularly reporting unmanned aerial vehicles. In March and April alone, Moscow forces have mistakenly dropped at least 21 aerial bombs from its aircraft on Russian soil. Russian authorities tend to cover up the incidents, saying that there was "an abnormal discharge of ammunition."

Ukraine's 92nd Brigade Counterattack Retakes Russian Trenches Near Bakhmut

There are a growing number of such reports that Ukraine's active defense strategy is creating counterattack opportunities in crucial sectors of the front as Russian forces used as replacement around their latest focus - Chasiv Yar - or are redeployed in the face of a rearmed Ukrainian military. JL  

Militarnyi reports:

The fourth assault battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade cleared and took over positions of the Russians, mopping up enemy trenches near the village of Ivanivske in the Bakhmut sector. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces fought off 16 invaders’ attacks in this sector. The 92nd Assault Brigade has been fighting Russia for 10 years. At the beginning of the invasion, the brigade’s units defended Kharkiv, later liberated the Kharkiv region, and are now in the Bakhmut area

Uncensored AIs Provide Anti-Woke Training Data Whether True Or Not

Extreme libertarians in the tech community are attempting to address demand for what they believe is anti-woke data, whether it is true or not. 

Fortunately, they are mostly being snuffed by the big tech models designed with guardrails and demonstrable truths in mind. JL

Christopher Mims reports in the Wall Street Journal:

To counterbalance what some believe are the biases of consumer-facing AIs from big tech companies, a grassroots effort to create AIs with few or no guardrails is under way. Uncensored models (are) the nightmare scenario for AI safety researchers concerned about AIs spreading questionable information. It’s for those whose philosophy is that AIs should regurgitate anything in their training data, whether or not it’s true. In response to testing, ChatGPT-4 Turbo frames changing public messaging around the covid vaccine as a natural part of the scientific process, in which experts’ understanding of the effects of a treatment evolves while LibertyAI enumerates the ways government "lies" about the Covid vaccine.

Most Weapons For New US Ukraine Aid Package Are Already In Germany, Poland

New US shipments when authorized - hopefully in the next day or so - will replace weapons and ammunition ready to be sent to Ukraine from those pre-positioned in German and Polish storage depots. JL 

Ivanna Kostina and Stanislav Pohorilov report in Ukraine Pravda:

Most weapons from the US aid package for Ukraine are already in storage in Germany and Poland, which will accelerate the pace of delivery after a corresponding bill is adopted. Ukrainian officials will seek to send the armaments quickly to the locations where they are needed most after they cross the border, but this will still be a logistical (challenge) due to the huge quantity of the armaments. Artillery shells will be one of the first elements delivered to Ukraine.

Russian Air Activity "Noticeably Decreased" After Ukraine Shot Down Russian Bomber

Russian air force activity around the Black and Azov Seas has decreased noticeably since last week when Ukraine shot down a Russian strategic bomber used to launch ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets. 

Ukrainian degradation of Russian defensive radars played a role in that successful targeting. The loss of trained pilots is also a concern for Russia as it has had trouble replacing its skilled cadres due to the need for potential trainers to serve in operational roles. JL 

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian air activity in the Black and Azov Seas has noticeably decreased after the downing of a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic aircraft, capable of launching difficult-to-intercept X-22 missiles. The downed Tu-22M3 was conducting strikes on Ukrainian territory 300 km away from Ukrainian-controlled areas. Four pilots aboard the flight ejected, with two found alive, one confirmed deceased, and one still missing and presumed dead.  “Following disruption of their command posts in occupied Crimea, radar stations have reported a reduction in the deployment of tactical aviation near these waters."

Russians Change Donbas Strategy In Attempt To Reduce "High Casualties"

The significance of this intelligence is that in light of renewed US military aid, Russian commanders appear to believe they can no longer afford the high casualties (30% higher than the already appalling 2023 casualties) they have suffered so far in their largely unsuccessful winter and spring offensives. 

And again, this year's Russian casualties were inflicted by a Ukrainian military reported to be short of soldiers and ammunition. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

In southern Donetsk Oblast, the Russian forces are plotting advances further west from Novomykhailivka in an effort to reduce casualties by circumventing the fortified defenses of Vuhledar. From entering to the middle of the town, a total distance of under 5km, took Russian forces 73 days. Following the Russian claim on the fall of Novomykhailivka, the commander of Ukraine’s 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, said Ukrainian troops were still in control of 20% of the settlement.

Turning Point? Ukraine To Be In 'Significantly Improved' Position vs Russia By June

Russian leadership is reported to have been surprised by the passage of renewed military assistance to Ukraine in the US Congress. 

As a result, the Russians will be forced to review its planned offensive operations in Ukraine, especially since they were unable to achieve any breakthroughs this winter and spring despite considerable advantages in manpower and ammunition. With Ukraine now expected to receive increased shipments, optimistic Russian plans will have to be adjusted, and in some cases, abandoned. JL 

The Institute For the Study of War reports:

The likely resumption of US security assistance to Ukraine is a critical turning point in the war. Ukraine will be in a significantly improved operational position by June 2024 as they leverage US security assistance to blunt Russian offensive operations regardless of delays in the arrival of that assistance, and the Russian military will likely consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive it is expected to launch in June. The Russian military command will have to consider if the intended objectives of its summer offensive effort are now feasible and if the current means Russian forces have been preparing are sufficient to conduct planned operations considering the resumption of US  assistance

Ukraine Has Stalled Russia's 25,000 Troop Chasiv Yar Attack For Now

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian defenders did this despite shortages of personnel, ammunition and other weapons. 

Coordination between artillery, infantry and drone troops relying on better intelligence than the  Russians have, has given Ukrainian forces the wherewithal to defend successfully as they wait for renewed US aid. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Russian forces "continued to attack Chasiv Yar and the surrounding area on April 21 but did not advance." The Russian forces have have made no recent advances around the key battleground. "Chasiv Yar is holding on. The enemy is pressing, but the situation is fully controlled by units of the Defense Forces. There is no enemy in the city." Even though Russia is planning a renewed summer offensive, Ukraine will be able to handle the push if the U.S. military aid arrives promptly.

Ukraine Strikes (Another) Russian Black Sea Fleet Ship In Crimean Port

The most surprising aspect of this report is that after Ukraine has already destroyed a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet there are still Black Sea Fleet ships stationed in its former headquarters port of Sevastopol, Crimea. 

In addition, that the Black Sea Fleet still deploys a ship launched in 1915 may offer some insights into the the fleet's larger operational and budgetary issues. JL

Nate York and Chris Ostiller report in the Kyiv Independent:

On April 21 Ukraine struck a ship in occupied Sevastopol and confirmed that it was the Kommuna, a salvage ship. Video showed a Russian naval vessel on fire and local media reported the Crimea bridge had been closed. The Kommuna was launched in 1915 and is the oldest ship still in service in the Russian Navy. Russia has withdrawn nearly all its major ships from ports in occupied Crimea following successful Ukrainian strikes.

Revived US Aid Will Strengthen Ukrainian Defenses - And Offensive Potential

For those who remember satellite images taken a year ago which detailed Russia's defenses against the then looming Ukrainian counteroffensive, the latest maps and photos of Ukraine's new defenses will look familiar.

Already impressive in scope and and position, these fortifications will now be significantly enhanced by the provision of additional weapons and ammunition in the newly approved US aid package. JL 

Josh Holder and colleagues report in the New York Times:

The Ukrainian government has (already) allocated $800 million to building fortifications along 600 miles of front line this year, and construction is well underway. The Ukrainians are directing their resources to the most defensible terrain, with the idea of making ground advances as costly as possible for Russia. The defenses also point to a strategy across much of the front line that involves keeping Russian forces off guard with small attacks and seeking to exploit flaws in their defenses. The U.S. House of Representatives approved a $60 billion military assistance package that will provide more weapons to Ukraine's war effort.

Why US Speaker Changed To Approve Ukraine Aid, Ignoring GOP Putin Lobby

Post-vote reports reveal that a number of factors combined to convince US Speaker of the House Johnson to change course and set in motion approval of renewed aid for Ukraine. 

Among those factors: urging from the traditional and still dominant Republican anti-Russian lobby who warned of global consequences, briefings from US security services which revealed the dire consequences for US interests if Ukraine fell, intelligence from US evangelicals to the devout Speaker who reported on Russian persecution of Ukrainian Christians, Iran's attack on Israel, Trump's perception that Putin was becoming a losing issue for him - and that the Speaker's son will be entering the US Naval Academy, underscoring the personal threat. JL

Annie Grayer and colleagues report in CNN:

After (becoming) speaker’s, sources say Johnson began to hear from Republican national security voices including Trump's former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, who impressed upon him the urgent need (for) assistance for Ukraine against Russia. A briefing from CIA Director Burns (explained) the dire situation in Ukraine and the global consequences of inaction. (Briefings from evangelicals about Russian persecution of Ukrainian Christians added to his conviction.)  Israel being attacked by Iran fueling a new sense of urgency for Congress to act. And Johnson’s son was recently accepted into the Naval Academy. “I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. This is not a game."

How Finance Drove Boeing's Lost Interest In Actually Manufacturing Planes

Boeing was once a symbol of American manufacturing expertise and might. But like many industrial companies, it became obsessed with financial engineering rather than the factory kind. 

Hiring leaders trained by financial manipulator Jack Welch of GE, designing compensation systems to pump short term stock price and looking for cost savings uber alles may have pleased investors - but two major plane crashes blamed on software inadequacies and then the door of one of its planes falling off in mid-flight began to expose an overreliance on outsourcing, off-shoring and an attendant focus on money rather than, quite literally, nuts and bolts. The pandemic highlighted the problems with extended supply chains. Boeing's woes have provided the exclamation point for companies looking to optimize more than just finances. JL  

Jerry Useem reports in The Atlantic:

Over 25 years, Boeing extracted itself from making planes. For 40 years the company built the 737 in the same plant that turned out its B-29 bombers. In 2005 it sold this facility to an investment firm, shifting risk, capital costs, and labor onto “suppliers,” outsourcing to others. Boeing’s latest screwups dramatize that (many) U.S. manufacturers lost interest in actually making stuff. American boardrooms had been handed over to finance people hypnotized by shareholder value. Their pay packages rewarded short-term spikes in stock price. US manufacturers doubled down on outsourcing, offshoring, financial engineering. Boeing’s stock rose 600% from 2010 to 2019 (but) two similar crashes caused by faulty software on Boeing planes killed 346 people. And then the doors blew off. Literally.

The Kremlin Was Shocked By US War Aid Vote, Had No Plan B. NATO Is Stronger

Just as the Kremlin believed false reports that its military was dominant and would crush Ukraine, so they apparently thought that their suborning of Trump and US Republican Congressmen assured that Ukraine military aid would be defeated. 

The Russians appear to be shocked by the turn of events and evidently had no Plan B. US weaponry and ammunition could reach Ukraine within the week, stymieing Russia's spring offensive plans and suddenly changing war fighting prospects again. JL  

Anton Gerashchenko reports in Twitter:

It seems approval of aid for Ukraine by the US Congress came as a big surprise to Russia. Judging by their reaction, believed there would be no help and had no Plan B. Ukraine and the West are destroying the remnants of the high-tech part of the Russian army. Another year of such a war and Russia will be left with last century weapons and meat assaults. Strategic aircraft, and the navy will be largely destroyed. NATO and China continue to increase their high tech weaponry stocks. Russia is playing tactics in Ukraine, and losing strategically. In a direct confrontation with NATO, it has less chance.

Most Ukraine Casualty Evacuation Done By Privately Funded Companies

US government cannot pay for humanitarian work linked to military operations. An effective network of private companies funded by charitable gifts and foundation grants has picked up the task. JL

Dan Sabbagh reports in The Guardian:

Medical casualty work in Ukraine (is largely done by private organizations funded by donations) where they conduct 80% of the last-leg critical battlefield evacuations in Donbas and 60% elsewhere. Casualties are ferried from the battlefield by fellow soldiers, then transported to stabilisation points several miles from the frontline. Its $1m (£800,000) a month operation is largely funded by private US foundations, because government agencies, such as USAid do not fund humanitarian work that could be considered linked to the military effort. Employees are all Ukrainians paid local wages since it is not possible to build a consistent system with volunteers. “This is intensive care on wheels,”

The Smartest Ways To Use AI At Work Are Emerging

The best advice on using AI at work is to start with what you're already doing. For most people, this means email, presentations, meetings and summaries. 

Display competence with these and then move further. JL 

Cordilia James reports in the Wall Street Journal:

20% of employed adults said they have used OpenAI’s ChatGPT for work as of February 2024, up from 8% a year ago. The most popular uses for AI at work are research and brainstorming, writing first-draft emails and creating visuals and presentations. “If you’re going to use it as a work tool, you need to think of the ways it can change your own productivity.” There are four areas where AI can help (most right now): email, presentations, summaries and meetings.

Russia's 2024 Ukraine Casualties On Track To Exceed 2023 By 30 Percent

As the Kremlin has become more desperate to achieve some sort of success in Ukraine, its waste of troops and equipment has become more profligate, leading to considerably higher losses.

A 30% increase in casualties could be an under estimate given resumption of US military aid and Russian determination to keep attacking despite it. JL 

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Russia sustained 82,870 casualties between the start of January and April 1, 2024. If Moscow continues to lose the same number of troops each day for the rest of the year, Russian forces would be on track to sustain 331,480 casualties by the end of the year. This far exceeds the number of purported Russian casualties for 2023 during which the Kremlin's forces sustained 252,570 casualties. Western assistance is likely to be a big determining factor in Russian casualties.

Dozens of Ukraine Drones Hit Multiple Russian Electricity and Water Supply Sites

Continuing to bring the battle to Russia by degrading its energy and utility infrastructure. JL 

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs attacked Russia on the night of 19-20 April as part of a joint operation by Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU), and the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Dozens of Ukrainian drones reached Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga, and Moscow oblasts. The target was the energy infrastructure that powers Russian defence industry facilities. Some areas experienced problems with electricity and water supply after the attacks. At least three power substations and a fuel storage facility were hit, causing fires.

US Military Aid To Ukraine, Just Approved, Will Be Ready To Move Within Days

Weapons systems already pre-positioned in Germany, Poland and other European countries can be quickly sent to Ukraine while replacements are sent to Europe from the US. JL 

John Ismay and Eric Schmitt report in the New York Times:

Shipments of American weapons could begin flowing to Ukraine again soon after a long-stalled aid package becomes law, U.S. officials say, with goods from the Pentagon’s stockpiles in Germany to be shipped quickly by rail to the Ukrainian border. More air-defense and artillery ammunition would be included. The Army says it makes 30,000 high-explosive shells each month, up from14,000 per month before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Additional ATACMS could be provided to Ukraine as soon as the weapons’ replacements enter the Pentagon’s inventory. “We have a very robust logistics network that enables us to move matériel very quickly. We can move within days.”