A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jan 17, 2025

At Current Casualty Rate, All 12,000 North Koreans Will Be Dead or Wounded By April

A combination of poor North Korean training, lack of adequate fire and armor support and mass infantry attack tactics versus theUkrainians' technological, tactical and logistical superiority is leading to such high casualty figures, that at current rates, the entire 12.000 man North Korean military contingent in Kursk will be dead or wounded within 12 weeks. JL

Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press
:

The entire North Korean contingent of 12,000 troops currently deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast “may be killed or wounded in action by mid-April 2025 should North Korean forces continue to suffer from their current high loss rate in the future.”  North Korean forces have sustained approximately 92 casualties per day since beginning significant combat operations in early December 2024. At this rate, the entire contingent of roughly 12,000 North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast could be killed or wounded within about 12 weeks. The high casualties among North Korean troops highlight the unsustainable nature of their deployment, plagued by inadequate fire support and poor coordination, while underscoring the Ukrainian military’s ability to exploit enemy weaknesses.

The Institute for Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 January that the entire North Korean contingent of approximately 12,000 troops currently deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast “may be killed or wounded in action by mid-April 2025 should North Korean forces continue to suffer from their current high loss rate in the future.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early January 2025, North Korean forces have already suffered 3,800 casualties in Kursk Oblast. This assessment is supported by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), which stated on 13 January that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed and 2,700 wounded in action in the region.

The high casualty rate emerged after North Korean forces became involved in more significant combat operations. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov reported on 5 November 2024 that North Korean troops were initially engaged in “small-scale” clashes in Kursk Oblast. However, ISW notes that Russian military bloggers began reporting on 6 December that North Korean forces had escalated to more substantial combat operations.

ISW calculates that North Korean forces have sustained approximately 92 casualties per day since beginning significant combat operations in early December 2024. At this rate, the entire contingent of roughly 12,000 North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast could be killed or wounded within about 12 weeks, by mid-April 2025.

 

Ukrainian special forces capitalized on their momentum and launched a decisive counterattack in the Kursk region near Kruglenkoe, targeting the exhausted North Korean troops in a forested area. Benefitting from their superior skills and modern equipment, they dealt a decisive blow to the enemy before the North Koreans could consolidate control over this territory.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news ukrainian reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

The Ukrainian aim was to neutralize the remaining North Korean troops, clear this sector of the frontline, and reclaim strategic positions near Kruglenkoe.

North Korean losses and vulnerabilities

This effort was critical in preventing the enemy from consolidating their foothold and ensuring the frontline remained stable. Ukrainian special forces capitalized further on their momentum from a successful tank raid on Mykolaivka, which we discussed in a previous report, so they launched the counterattack with the dual goal of eliminating enemy survivors and pushing the frontline back to Kruglenkoe. Reclaiming this area was essential to disrupt Russian plans for further offensives and to safeguard Ukrainian positions near Malaya Loknya.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video malaya lokhmya 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news ukrainian reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Ukrainian special forces sought to exploit a moment of vulnerability after a series of disastrous North Korean assaults on Malaya Loknya, where the deployed enemy units had been left heavily depleted. Because North Koreans fought almost until the last man was dead, these units suffered catastrophic losses due to poor coordination and a near-total absence of fire support from Russian forces. Ukrainians Intelligence reports estimate approximately 4,000 North Korean casualties in the region, attributed to Russia’s neglect in providing adequate artillery and logistical support.

Tactical advantages: Ukrainian technological and logistical superiority

To achieve their objectives, Ukrainian operators relied on rapid assaults backed by extensive fire support. Equipped with thermal scopes, these elite forces operated with unparalleled precision.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video lokhnya 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news ukrainian reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Advanced technology allowed them to detect enemy positions as the North Korean soldiers were heavily contrasted against the cold and snowy background, which made the Ukrainians much more effective.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video lokhnya 2 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news ukrainian reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Coupled with superior preparation and coordination, these capabilities gave the Ukrainians a decisive edge over the North Korean troops, who lacked comparable equipment and modern training.

The Ukrainian forces also leveraged their logistical advantage. By operating from Malaya Loknya, they could resupply efficiently and minimize the risk of detection during troop movements due to the short travel time. By striking swiftly and unexpectedly, they aimed to deny the North Koreans any opportunity to prepare or reinforce their defenses.

Operational challenges: Terrain and enemy positions

Despite their advantages, the Ukrainian soldiers faced significant challenges.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video 2 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news ukrainian reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

The North Korean troops had already taken positions in forested areas and houses, which provided them with natural and structural cover against Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and drone strikes. Clearing such terrain required meticulous planning and could have exposed the Ukrainian special forces to ambushes. Additionally, the persistent risk of Russian reinforcements arriving to bolster the North Koreans added a layer of urgency to the operation. Ukrainian forces had to act decisively before the enemy could regroup and launch further assaults.

Combat engagement: Direct conflict and resistance

The counterattack near Kruglenkoe began with camouflaged Ukrainian troops advancing into the forested area where North Korean soldiers were regrouping for an offensive. The Ukrainians opened fire, quickly neutralizing many of the enemy combatants. During the operation, they examined the bodies of fallen North Korean soldiers and discovered one survivor. As they attempted to take him prisoner, the soldier pulled a grenade, shouted a defiant cry, and detonated it, killing himself in an act of desperation. A Ukrainian soldier narrowly avoided injury, jumping back just in time.

Following this operation, a 15-man Russian assault group was sent to locate the Ukrainian operators.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news ukrainian reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

However, their efforts proved futile as they were swiftly detected by Ukrainian drone units, who destroyed the enemy group with precision and efficiency.

Operation outcomes: Strategic gains and implications

Overall, the operation resulted in the elimination of more North Korean soldiers and the dismantling of their attempt to consolidate their positions, due to the superior training, equipment, and tactical execution of the Ukrainian special forces. By eliminating the remnants of the North Korean contingent and reclaiming strategic positions near Kruglenkoe, Ukrainians have strengthened their defensive line and dealt a significant blow to enemy morale.

frontline report north koreans face catastrophic losses near kruglenkoe ukrainians reclaim positions reporting ukraine's video ukrainian gains kreglenkoe 16 2025 today important updates kursk direction ukraine news reports
Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

The high casualties among North Korean troops highlight the unsustainable nature of their deployment under Russian command, plagued by inadequate fire support and poor coordination, while underscoring the Ukrainian military’s ability to exploit enemy weaknesses.

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