North Koreans' 'Ability Significantly Degraded' By Their Losses In Kursk

North Korean troops' 'abilities have been significantly degraded' by the heavy casualties they are suffering in Kursk oblast. 

Many of the losses are being caused by drones, which the North Koreans have been ordered to ignore. The scale of the losses suggests that the North Koreans currently deployed will have to be supplemented by new drafts and that they are not able to learn much about modern war because of the way the Russians are using them, which is contributing to their shocking numbers of dead and wounded. The wounded Koreans captured two days ago have revealed that they were told they were going to Russia for training and that they received one week's practice before being deployed. JL

The Institute for the Study of War and Olha Hlushchenko in Ukraine Pravda report:

Ukrainian forces inflicted significant losses on Russia's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in the fall, pushing the Russian military to deploy North Korean forces to Kursk Oblast sooner than planned. North Korean forces are suffering high casualties, including one instance of  1,000 casualties in only one week in late December 2024. North Korean forces lost a battalion of infantry near Makhnovka, Kursk Oblast on January 3 and 4. 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast, a third of the 12,000 North Koreans there. North Korea's ability to learn from the fighting will be significantly degraded if the Russian command uses North Korean troops in highly attritional infantry-led assaults. North Korean forces' inability to learn to counter drones will also affect the lessons they can learn from the war.
ISW: North Korean forces are reportedly deploying large assault groups to combat operations despite frequent Ukrainian drone strikes, which is likely contributing to North Korea's high casualty rates and will likely affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in the war. 

 

The Washington Post reported on January 11 that North Koreans fighting in Kursk Oblast are attacking in large groups with support from Russian artillery and drones, unlike Russian forces who usually move in smaller groups.[3] North Korean soldiers are also reportedly ignoring Ukrainian drones and continuing to move forward despite drone strikes on personnel. The Washington Post reported that Russian forces are following behind North Korean advances in order to "stabilize the gains," but a Ukrainian solider operating in Kursk Oblast reported that communications issues between Russian and North Korean forces may be slowing Russian efforts to consolidate new positions.

 

The Ukrainian soldier stated that North Korean forces launched an assault consisting of 400 to 500 personnel in December 2024, during which North Korean forces outnumbered Ukrainian forces six-to-one. Ammunition shortages reportedly forced the Ukrainian forces to withdraw after eight hours of fighting — suggesting that North Korean forces are heavily relying on a superior number of personnel to advance despite poor tactics. The solider stated that Ukrainian forces had inflicted significant losses on Russia's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]), possibly pushing the Russian military command to deploy North Korean forces to Kursk Oblast sooner than planned. Western officials have recently noted that North Korean forces are suffering high casualties, including at least one instance of roughly 1,000 casualties in Kursk Oblast in only one week in late December 2024.[4]

 

Zelensky reported on January 5 that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast — roughly a third of the reported 12,000 total North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast — and stated that North Korean forces lost up to a battalion of infantry near Makhnovka, Kursk Oblast on January 3 and 4 alone.[5] ISW continues to assess that North Korea's ability to learn and integrate lessons from fighting alongside Russian forces will likely be significantly degraded if the Russian military command uses North Korean troops in highly attritional infantry-led assaults in similar or greater sizes than it conducts with most Russian personnel.[6] North Korean forces' inability or refusal to learn to effectively counter drones will also affect the lessons they can learn from the war.

 

Ukraine Pravda: Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken their first North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) in Russia's Kursk Oblast. On 9 January, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) announced that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) had captured one North Korean soldier, with a second prisoner being seized by Ukrainian airborne assault troops in the area shortly thereafter.

The SSU reported that Ukrainian authorities are collaborating with South Korean intelligence to communicate with the prisoners of war, as they do not speak English, Russian or Ukrainian.

One of the POWs was found to be in possession of a Russian military ID card from the Republic of Tuva, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, which was reportedly issued to him by Russian authorities in the autumn of 2024.

The prisoner said that he had received just one week of training on coordination with Russian forces before being sent to combat, and he believed he was going to Russia for training, not to fight in Ukraine.