A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jan 18, 2025

Russia's Threat Is To NATO Now "Dramatically Diminished" Due To Ukraine War

As the world awaits Trump's inauguration on Monday, Russia's military has conclusively demonstrated that it is still incapable of taking Kursk and Pokrovsk, let along posing a significant threat to NATO.

As the fourth year of Russia's Ukraine invasion looms, the Ukrainian military, with the help of its western allies' superior weapons, training and intelligence, has humiliated the Kremlin and reduced Russia's ability to threaten NATO. JL

Kris Osborn reports in 19fortyfive:

The Ukraine war has dramatically diminished Russia’s conventional military threat to NATOWhile nuclear threats remain a concern, the depletion of conventional forces suggests Russia’s ability to wage large-scale land war has been significantly undermined, reshaping NATO’s strategic outlook. Russia has lost over 3,000 tanks—its entire active-duty tank force. It now operates only 19 - 20 Su-57s due to ongoing production problems compared to hundreds of NATO F-35s. And Russia faces significant manpower and economic challenges.

Key Points and Summary: The Ukraine war has dramatically diminished Russia’s conventional military threat to NATO. Reports indicate that Russia has lost over 3,000 tanks—its entire active-duty tank force—and faces significant manpower and economic challenges.

-Despite claims of advanced technologies like hypersonics and Su-57s, Russia’s limited production capacity restricts their impact, especially compared to NATO’s hundreds of F-35s.

 

-Precision ammunition shortages and reliance on outdated equipment further highlight Russia’s struggles.

 

-While nuclear threats remain a concern, the depletion of conventional forces suggests that Russia’s ability to wage large-scale land war has been significantly undermined, reshaping NATO’s strategic outlook.

Has the War in Ukraine Exposed Russia’s Weaknesses?

It was once thought that the Russian Army presented a massive threat to NATO, and while this may still be the case to some extent, the war in Ukraine has massively changed this theory. One significant reason is manpower. A report from the Kyiv Independent says that Ukraine operates a force of 880,000 soldiers faced with fighting only 600,000 Russian soldiers. 

Mass Problem for the Russian Army 

The complexity and challenge of the Russian military, when it comes to technological prowess, somewhat pertain to a numbers scenario.

While the country may possess advanced, paradigm-changing technology in the realm of hypersonics, 5th-gen aircraft, and electronic warfare (EW), it is not clear that Russia has the industrial capacity to scale these technologies substantially. 

 

The Su-57, for example, may or may not rival a US F-35, yet this question loses relevance when one considers that there are not many Su-57s. Available estimates indicate that Russia now operates roughly 19 – 20 Su-57s due to ongoing production and economic problems.

This means that Russia simply has no ability to “mass” 5th-generation air power. By contrast, the US, NATO, and Europe currently operate hundreds of F-35s and would arguably be able to achieve air superiority quickly in any significant engagement with Russia. 

Russia also claims to be ahead in the realm of hypersonics. It has, in fact, “fired” its Oreshnik hypersonic missile in Ukraine. This weapon may incorporate a wide range of cutting-edge technologies of great concern to the West, but how many are there?

 

What kind of industrial capacity does Russia have to manufacture munitions and equipment in any meaningful capacity? Russia has already faced shortfalls with precision ammunition. 

Russia lost 3,000 tanks

Apart from these threatening technologies, Russia has for decades presented a substantial “land war” threat to NATO, yet this threat has likely now been diminished to a massive extent. An interesting and significant Army Intelligence Report called “The Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large-Scale Combat Operations.” (US Army Training and Doctrine Command, G2), from US Army TRADOC, says that Russia’s entire active duty tank force has been destroyed in its war with Ukraine. 

“Ukrainian Armed Forces have used vast quantities of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), antitank guided missiles, and FPV UAS—combined with fires—to great effect.

As of July 2024, Russia has lost 3,197 main battle tanks—more than its entire active-duty inventory at the outset of conflict—and 6,160 armored fighting vehicles, forcing them to pull increasingly obsolescent systems from storage,” the text of the report from 2024 states.

A T-72 B3 tank operated by a crew from Russia jumps during the Tank Biathlon competition at the International Army Games 2020 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia September 2, 2020. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

A T-72 B3 tank operated by a crew from Russia jumps during the Tank Biathlon competition at the International Army Games 2020 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia September 2, 2020. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

This fact alone, coupled with Russia’s extensive human casualties and economic problems, would seem to suggest that Russia is no longer a serious conventional warfare threat to the US and NATO.

This is likely one reason why Putin has continued with “nuclear threats” as he has, in effect, held the world hostage with the prospect of starting a massive nuclear war.

 

However genuine these threats are, they are indeed being taken seriously by the West, which complicates ongoing efforts to support Ukraine. 

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