Why Trump's Gaza Proposal Must Be Terrifying Putin About Ukraine

Trump's proposal that the US take over Gaza, eject its Palestinian residents and develop it into a luxury beach resort has been greeted with derision in most of the world. Most, that is, except for Ukraine and Russia, where the parallels with their real estate 'opportunity' appear evident, interesting, and possibly terrifying, at least to Putin.

The reason is that the Kremlin, which had apparently believed Trump, as a fellow autocrat (and not insignificant debtor), would do their bidding or be open to their expansionist point of view, now appears intent on flexing his imperialist real estate developer muscles in ways they had clearly never imagined. Trump has not only offered Ukraine a trade of their precious metals in return for US military aid - to which they have responded enthusiastically - but has put Putin on the defensive with the gob-smacking outrageousness of his grasping vision. This is no compliant naif, but a full-blown competitor in the pursuit of power and treasure. And for a leader like Putin whose economy is collapsing, whose military remains thuggishly incompetent and a populace for whom the cynical Ukrainian joke has grown stale, surviving the pivot to ceasefire is suddenly looking more complicated and uncertain. JL

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon comments in The Telegraph:

Putin is keen to survive the impending ceasefire but must now be terrified. The Trump hurricane has the potential to blow him to the Urals. Buoyed by ‘his’ ceasefire in Gaza, Trump is unlikely to suggest a deal in Ukraine that is not going to stick. Putin may have to trade thousands of square kilometres of land in Ukraine to recover the few hundred he has lost in the Kursk region, to allow him to save face and his future in the Kremlin. Putin’s oligarchs (want) to get back to their superyachts and ski chalets in Europe. With the Russian economy in free fall, and even the Russian ‘peasants’ beginning to turn mutinous, Trump's brand of bonkers suggestions may not seem so ridiculous in Kyiv and may be impossible to ignore in Moscow even if they are in the Middle East. 

There is now a clear understanding that General Kellogg will present President Trump’s plan for peace in Ukraine next week at the Munich Security Summit, though Western officials are far from clear as yet what it might entail. But perhaps we can get an insight into the President’s thinking from some of his extraordinary ideas for peace in Gaza.

And after all, it might not seem as odd to to end the Ukraine war with plans for a holiday resort. Crimea was already a popular recreational destination, and Russians might well prefer to visit it as holidaymakers travelling to Ukraine than as invading occupiers, and pay reparations in the form of tourist taxes. Trump might also clear the shattered Donbass of Russians and their fortified defensive lines and rebuild it with US and European money, gaining Putin’s consent by lifting sanctions. As far-fetched as this may seem, Trump and Western money might well talk louder in Ukraine and Russia than they ever could in Gaza, Amman and Cairo.

Trump-style outlandish plans, then, may get a better hearing in Moscow than they do in the Middle East. Certainly, Putin’s oligarchs appear keen to get back to their superyachts and ski chalets in Europe. With the Russian economy in free fall, and even the Russian ‘peasants’ – who Putin and the oligarchy so readily ignore – perhaps beginning to turn mutinous, Trump may well have some aces in his hand.

What is clear is that any talk of the status quo will not be popular with Zelensky and any talk of the status quo ante – 2022 or 2014 – is unlikely to get much traction with Putin. But as Trump’s staff rein in some of his ideas for the US to take over Gaza and export the residents to Egypt and Jordan, it does seem that his brand of bonkers suggestions may not seem so ridiculous in Kyiv and may be impossible to ignore in Moscow.

Put simply, Putin must now be terrified. The Trump hurricane has the potential to blow him to the Urals and beyond. Buoyed by ‘his’ ceasefire in Gaza, Trump is unlikely to suggest a deal in Ukraine that is not going to stick. The only way it will stick is if Ukraine gets some, if not all, of the territory it has lost back. Putin may have to trade thousands of square kilometres of land in Ukraine to recover the few hundred he has lost for the Russian people in the hallowed Kursk region, to allow him to save face and his future in the Kremlin.

 

It seems that Putin is personally keen to survive the impending ceasefire. After Trump’s bumptious declarations on Gaza, it is highly likely that Trump has Putin’s essentials in his vice rather than the other way round. Trump knows he is much more likely to achieve an effective and lasting peace in Ukraine than he is in Gaza. Considering the new president’s desire to be seen as the great leader and peacemaker of the 21st Century, Putin must be worried.

The new president is also very keen to hand this problem over entirely to European leaders as soon as possible, who may well also be worried. Nonetheless it is time for them to lead on the defence of Europe, as Trump becomes less and less interested in problems outside mainland America.