Russian 'Spring Offensive' Not Expected To Gain Much As Current Attacks Fail

As Russia's current offensive attempts, starting in late fall 2024, have largely failed, the Kremlin has announced a 'major spring offensive.'  Which might have sounded more ominous a few years ago than it does now. 

Last year, Russia also attempted a major offensive - when its forces had more men available as well as more weapons and ammunition - but all they had to show for it was tens of thousands more dead and wounded in addition to armor and artillery inventory so depleted that it became dependent on North Korea. The Russian offensive is not expected to result in significant or strategic gains as the Russians no longer have the capacity to break through. JL

Demian Shevko reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Ukrainian troops destroyed a heavy mechanized bridge Russian forces had installed to cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast.  Ukraine’s forces (also) successfully repelled enemy infantry assaults as Russia continues to rely on outdated armored equipment and even as the Kremlin plans an offensive for the spring which could last 6-9 months. "If this offensive really happens, we shouldn’t expect it to bring any big territorial changes. They don’t have more troops. They don’t have more equipment. They don’t have more resources. Last year, they were stronger than they are now — and still only managed 55 kilometers.”

Ukrainian troops destroyed a heavy mechanized bridge that Russian forces had installed to cross the Oskil River near the town of Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast, the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group reported on March 30.

In addition to the bridge strike, Ukraine’s defense forces successfully repelled enemy infantry assaults near the settlements of Kamianka, Pishchane, Petropavlivka, and Zahryzove.

According to the Khortytsia group, Russian forces continue to rely on outdated armored equipment, including modified T-55 tanks repurposed to transport troops to frontline positions and staging areas.

 

On March 25, Ruslan Mykula, co-founder of the DeepState analytics project, said that heavy fighting continues in northern Kharkiv Oblast, particularly near the Oskil River. Clashes have intensified around the settlements of Topoli, Krasne Pershe, and Kamianka.

Mykula noted that battlefield dynamics indicate Russia is attempting to establish a land corridor along the Oskil River to move troops and equipment with fewer casualties.

On March 24, Oleh Maliarovych, a representative of Ukraine’s 429th Separate Drone Systems Regiment “Achilles,” said Ukrainian forces had liberated part of the territory near Dvorichna.

Earlier in 2025, DeepState reported that Ukrainian troops had managed to stabilize the front around the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast.

Khortytsia Command said that while Russian troops have tried to build crossings over the Oskil, their attempts have failed.

On March 5, DeepState analysts said Ukrainian forces had pushed Russian troops north of the village of Zapadne in the Kupyansk direction, describing the situation there as “improving.”

On March 13, Khortytsia spokesperson Viktor Trehubov acknowledged that some Russian units had managed to cross the Oskil River. He added that Ukrainian troops are actively working to push those forces back to the opposite bank.

 

(Regarding the expected Russian spring offensive), “Zelenskyy made that statement publicly so our friends and partners in Europe and the U.S. would react,” Hetman said. “We already had that information last fall — that Russia was planning offensive operations for the spring, around April or May. The Russians didn’t even hide it. They predicted the campaign could last six to nine months, essentially covering all of 2025.”

 

Do the Russians have the resources for a major offensive?

“The forces they currently have in Ukraine — around 600,000 personnel, plus tanks, aircraft, artillery — they might try,” Hetman said. “The numbers and equipment are no secret — you can look them up in open sources.”

 

“From a military perspective, that’s not a success. That’s not meaningful progress.”

So could the offensive Zelenskyy warned about — aimed at Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhya — deliver more gains for Russia?

“That’s a pretty bold assumption,” Hetman said. “Yes, Russia might advance here and there. That’s just the reality of any war. Any army launching an offensive tends to move forward in at least some areas.”

“But if this offensive really happens this year, we shouldn’t expect it to bring any big territorial changes. They don’t have more troops. They don’t have more equipment. They don’t have more resources. Last year, they were stronger than they are now — and still only managed 55 kilometers.”

“So why should we expect anything dramatically different this year?”