A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 7, 2025

Ukraine Winning Attrition War At Pokrovsk As Russian Attacks, Logistics Collapse

Russia has lost the initiative at Pokrovsk as Ukrainian drone dominance of the battlefield has caused Russia's logistics to collapse, which has in turn, exposed the Kremlin's growing troop shortages as well as armored and support vehicle crisis, leading to fewer and weaker assaults.

This is a shocking turnabout given the widespread assumption that Ukraine's Pokrovsk defenders were on the verge of retreat. But the reality on the ground is that Ukraine is now winning the war of attrition it was once projected to lose due to Russia's superior size and strength. The reason is that Russia continues to waste human and materiel resources in profligate assaults which cause unsustainable casualties. As a result, the Kremlin is now turning its focus to other sectors, albeit with similarly disappointing outcomes so far. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian forces' ability to conduct large-scale assaults has been severely weakened by the staggering number of vehicle losses over months of fighting. The battlefield remains under Ukrainian drone dominance. Russian forces have found it nearly impossible to advance without being spotted, and any attempt at rapid movement results in targeting by Ukrainian artillery and drones. Pokrovsk illustrates the widening gap in military capabilities. While Ukrainian forces maintain mobility with mechanized forces, Russian troops are being pushed into increasingly desperate tactics, relying more on animals to sustain operations. Russian attempts to advance remain slow, costly, and unsustainable, while Ukrainian defenders tighten their hold, winning the war of attrition.

On 6 March, there was important news from the Pokrovsk direction.

Here, desperate Russian commanders attempted to achieve a breakthrough at any cost. With Ukrainians creating a kill zone for vehicles, Russians started deploying horses, reimplementing cavalry into modern warfare.

frontline report
A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 6 March

South of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are desperate to push westward, attempting to put as much distance as possible between their rear positions and the relentless Ukrainian drone operators targeting their rear. Their constant drone strikes are devastating Russian supply lines, command centers, and units moving to the contact line, severely disrupting an already weak logistical network.

frontline report
A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 6 March

To counter this, the Russians aimed to seize control of the small settlements scattered across the vast open fields in the area, which would serve as launching points for further assaults westward, while denying the Ukrainians the ability to do the same in the other direction.

 

While frozen ground conditions technically allow Russian forces to maneuver their remaining armored vehicles more effectively, their ability to conduct large-scale mechanized assaults has been severely weakened by the staggering number of vehicle losses sustained over months of fighting. Despite the solid terrain, the battlefield dynamics remain under Ukrainian drone dominance. Russian forces have found it nearly impossible to advance without being spotted, and any attempt at rapid movement results in swift targeting by Ukrainian artillery and drones.

frontline report
A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 6 March

The regular Russian tactic of using the survivors of failed mechanized assaults to dig in along tree lines does not work with completely frozen ground, as it is too hard to dig in quickly enough before Ukrainians fully eliminate them with drones. Russian assault groups that manage to cross open terrain are often left exposed without cover and subsequently eliminated by Ukrainian drone strikes.

With few alternatives, the Russian advance has been restricted mainly to the settlements in the fields, relying on spread-out buildings for cover.

frontline report
A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 6 March

Several geolocated videos show the work of Ukrainian troops in dismantling the rarely available Russian vehicles. A Russian T-72B3M tank can be seen delivering soldiers to a position in a tree line, but at that very moment, two Ukrainian FPV drones can be seen already flying towards it, striking it precisely and destroying it on the spot.

Another video shows how Ukrainian kamikaze drones are hunting and eliminating Russian soldiers, ATVs, armored personnel carriers, more tanks, and military trucks filled with soldiers and supplies.

A stark indication of Russian struggles has emerged in recent footage from Russian soldiers filming themselves moving to the frontline on horseback. They are seen carrying their full combat equipment, including armor vests and shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons. Another clip shows other soldiers riding horses through a village, again moving toward the front, however, with fewer weapons than the previous group. This shows that the implementation of new improvised cavalry units applies to all levels of the Russian armed forces, from highly trained personnel to the foot soldiers sent on meat waves.

frontline report
A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 6 March

Other shocking images even show the usage of donkeys and a camel to transport supplies. While these methods may partially help sustain some positions, it highlights the growing desperation, as the use of such improvised cavalry in modern warfare is an unmistakable sign that conventional Russian logistics have entirely broken down.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian mechanized units continue to operate effectively, reinforcing positions, rotating troops, and maintaining steady pressure on Russian-held settlements. Footage shows how two Russian fiber-optic-guided drones attacked a Ukrainian Kozak-2M1 armored vehicle but were unable to detonate, leaving the crew unharmed.

Another video shows how two Ukrainian tanks destroyed a building in the village Sribne, where up to 10 Russians were attempting to establish a foothold.

In another, a Ukrainian Bradley armored fighting vehicle successfully evacuated Ukrainian soldiers who were pinned down by opening suppressive fire and deploying a smoke screen.

Overall, the ongoing battle near Pokrovsk illustrates the widening gap in military capabilities between the two sides. While Ukrainian forces maintain mobility with modern mechanized forces, Russian troops are being pushed into increasingly outdated and desperate tactics, relying more and more on animals to sustain their operations. If this trend continues, Russian attempts to advance westward will remain slow, costly, and ultimately unsustainable, while Ukrainian defenders continue to tighten their hold on the battlefield, and winning the war of attrition.

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

There's a report that Russia has breached Ukrainian Lines near Sudsa. Do you have any more details. Can Ukraine turn them back?

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