Kremlin Classifies Population Data As Russian Birthrate Hits 200 Year Low

The Kremlin has classified demographic data as statistics in the first months of 2025 revealed that its birthrate and population had plummeted to levels not seen since the late 1700s and early 1800s. 

Russia's demographics had been declining for decades due to dire economic circumstances but that trend has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine in which Russia has suffered what is expected by the end of this month to be a million casualties and as hundreds of thousands of others have fled to avoid conscription into the military. A worst case scenario, according to the United Nations, is that if present trends continue, Russia's population could be cut in half by the end of this century. JL

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Russia has classified key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century. For decades, Russia has been experiencing a birth rate and population decline, which have worsened amid its war Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted. Projections estimate Russia's population will fall to 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia's population could almost halve to 83 million. "The level of demographic panic within the government has reached epic proportions."

Russia has moved to classify key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Why It Matters

For decades, Russia has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, which appears to have worsened amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.

Projections estimate that Russia's population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia's population could almost halve to 83 million.

 

What To Know

Demographer Alexey Raksha, who previously worked with Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), said the agency recently ceased publishing detailed demographic data.

In its monthly report published on May 16, Rosstat omitted figures for births and deaths for the most recent reporting period, along with monthly data on marriages and divorces, Raksha said.

Of the five demographic tables previously published by Rosstat, only one remained in the latest report. It provided data on births, deaths, marriages and divorces only as a cumulative total from the beginning of the year, he said.

"In fact, since March 2025, there have been almost no publicly available demographic statistics in Russia," Raksha wrote.

 

"The level of demographic panic within the government has reached epic proportions,"

 

In March, Raksha said Russia might be seeing its lowest birth rates since the late 1700s. Births dropped by 6 to 7 percent in February and by 3 to 4 percent in March, the demographer said.

In the first quarter of 2025, between 293,000 and 294,000 births were registered in Russia—2.4 percent lower than the first quarter of last year, he said.

"March 2025 likely recorded the lowest number of births on the territory of today's Russian Federation since the late 18th to early 19th century," Raksha wrote on his Telegram channel.

 

The average number of children per woman remained almost the same in the first quarter, decreasing from 1.432 to 1.431, the demographer said.

Russian authorities have restricted access to abortions and contraception and have even offered pregnant women payouts in a bid to encourage the population to have children. In 2023, Valery Seleznev, a member of the Russian State Duma, proposed releasing women convicted of minor charges from prisons so they could conceive.

Last year, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said reviving the nation's birth rate was one of Russia's "top priorities." He called the situation "catastrophic."

What People Are Saying

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in July: "We live in the largest country in the world. And our numbers are decreasing every year. And this can only be dealt with by increasing the average birth rate."

 

What Happens Next

In addition to classifying population data, Russia plans to ban "childfree ideology." On September 1, Roskomnadzor, Russia's telecommunications regulator, is set to implement an order that could affect media such as Game of Thrones, Sex and the City and the Harry Potter franchise.