Kremlin Inflates Recruit Figures By Double As Volunteers Continue To Decline

While Putin and others in the Kremlin brag about their success in signing new soldiers to fight in Ukraine, analyses of national and regional budgets from which bonuses for new recruits are paid reveal that the influx of new soldiers started slowing last fall and have continued to decline. 

In fact, many of those now volunteering are reported to have done so spurred by expectations the war will end, so they will not have to fight but still qualify for financial incentives. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian government budgets reveals recruitment into Russia’s army had slowed by the end of 2024 and continues to decline. The figures announced by Putin - 1,800 new soldiers per day - may be twice the actual number. Regional data from spring 2025 indicate the pace of enlistment continues to drop. In 2023, Russia created the 25th Combined Arms Army. In 2024, it formed the 44th Army Corps. But now, existing brigades are being expanded into divisions which still requires manpower, but not at scale, suggesting no major increase in recruitment. The brief uptick in enlistments earlier this year was driven by hopes that peace talks might mean avoiding combat while still qualifying for financial incentives.

Recruitment into Russia’s occupying army had slowed by the end of 2024 and continues to decline, even as the Kremlin inflates the number of new contract soldiers, independent outlet Vazhniye istorii reported on May 30.

Analyzing federal budget expenditures, the journalists estimate that between 374,200 and 407,200 people signed contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry over the course of 2024. The discrepancy stems from Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s decision in August 2024 to more than double the federal signing bonus for enlisting, which made it harder to calculate an accurate number of new contract troops for the third quarterRemaining Time 

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Despite the bonus increase, recruitment had dropped by a factor of 1.3 compared to 2023 by year’s end. Russia’s Defense Ministry, the report says, is likely still inflating the number of contract soldiers.

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Russia aims to mobilize 343,000 troops for war in 2025 – HUR

Putin has claimed that by summer 2025, the number of soldiers under contract had doubled compared to the previous year. However, regional data from spring 2025 indicates the pace of enlistment continues to drop.

“The figure announced by Putin — 1,800 new contract soldiers per day by summer 2025 — may be nearly twice the real number,” the report states.

German researcher Janis Kluge, who monitors Russia’s military recruitment trends, estimates that around 1,000 people are now signing contracts each day across the country. He also believes the uptick in enlistments earlier this year was driven by hopes that peace talks might mean avoiding combat while still qualifying for the financial incentives.

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Kremlin increases financial offers to enlist more 'volunteers' for war in Ukraine

Military analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) called Putin’s claim of 50,000 to 60,000 new recruits per month “purely political.”

“He just needs to show [Ukraine]: we have more people, don’t resist, we’ll crush you with numbers. In reality, we’re not seeing recruitment at that scale,” CIT experts said.

One indicator that recruitment hasn’t actually increased in 2025 is the absence of newly formed units. In 2023, Russia created the 25th Combined Arms Army from scratch. In 2024, it formed the 44th Army Corps. But now, instead of new formations, existing brigades are being expanded into divisions — something that still requires manpower, but not at massive scale. This, CIT says, indirectly proves that no major increase in recruitment is happening.

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Russia struggles to fill ranks as battlefield losses mount – ISW

On Jan. 30, Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence agency reported that Russia aimed to enlist at least 126,000 people in 2025 from so-called “special contingents” — prisoners, people in debt, and others. Altogether, the Kremlin plans to mobilize 280,000 people this year.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in a Feb. 4 assessment, wrote that Russia is likely struggling to recruit enough troops, as its monthly enlistment rate is equal to or lower than its battlefield losses in Ukraine.

On Feb. 7, Ukraine’s First Deputy Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Ivan Havryliuk, said that at least 427,000 people had joined Russia’s military in 2024, which translates to an average of 36,000 new troops per month.

In April, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said the aggressor state was increasing its armed forces by 8,000–9,000 contract soldiers a month — which would amount to 120,000–130,000 annually.