New Russian Summer Offensive Unlikely: "They Try But Cannot Break Through"

Meet the new Russian summer offensive, which is the same as last fall and winter's offensive. 

The Russians have failed to achieve any significant breakthroughs in a year. Their new recruits barely replace the thousand or more casualties they suffer on an average day. When they do attack, it largely on motor bikes, golf carts and civilian cars because they have lost so much armor - and continue to do so. The Kremlin is trying to keep up momentum to convince the White House that Russia is still a military power. But the reputational damage is done. JL

Espreso Global reports:

“There’s a lot of talk about a mythical summer offensive, and that Russia is counting on it. But there won’t be a separate offensive in the summer. The Russians are already conducting a strategic offensive that began last year and which is still ongoing. The battles near Pokrovsk, Tokmak, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Lyman are all interconnected. Russia has failed to achieve strategic operational success in 2024 and 2025. Ukrainian forces are holding the line. Enemy units and formations intended to break through are wiped out after advancing 100 meters. The second echelons, instead of moving into the operational space cannot make a breakthrough. As a result, the enemy has fewer and fewer reserves.”

Pavlo Lakiychuk, Head of Security Programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI, says that the Russian army's strategic offensive operation, launched in 2024, is currently ongoing

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

“There’s a lot of talk about the mythical summer offensive of the Russian army, that the enemy is counting on it. But there won’t be a separate offensive in the summer. The Russians are already conducting a strategic offensive operation. If we look back at December of last year, on December 16, an expanded meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry was held in Moscow, where the military reported on the past year’s results and plans for the coming year. At that meeting, both Putin and Defense Minister Belousov stated that in 2024, the Russians had seized the initiative from the Ukrainians, meaning they managed to turn the tide of the war. Therefore, the goal for 2025 is to ‘complete the defeat of the enemy, achieve the objectives of the special military operation, and end the war in victory,’” commented Pavlo Lakiychuk.

According to him, the strategic offensive operation launched by the Russian army in 2024 is still ongoing. “The battles near Pokrovsk, Tokmak, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and in the Lyman sector are all interconnected, as this is the only strategic operation aimed at capturing the northwestern part of Donbas, with Pokrovsk being key. In the north, the occupiers plan to cut off the Siversk salient, while in the southeast, they are shortening the front line to free up reserves for the offensive.”

 

“However, a strategic offensive operation of this scale is planned to last no more than three months. The first task is to break through the defense, which typically takes several weeks to a month. Once the defense is breached, reserves enter the operational space. The Russian offensive in February 2022 in southern Ukraine can be considered a successful strategic operation. The enemy has failed to achieve that in 2024 and 2025. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are steadfastly holding the line. Those enemy units and formations intended to break through the defense are wiped out after advancing just 100 meters. The second echelons of the occupiers, instead of moving into the operational space after the breakthrough, are trying to break through alongside the first. But the problem is that they cannot make a breakthrough. As a result, the enemy has fewer and fewer reserves,” the military expert summarized.