Recent Kremlin Parade, "Ceasefire" Are Desperate Effort To Conceal Failures

Multiple analyses reveal that during Putin's three day 'ceasefire" Russian forces actually increased the tempo of their ground combat and aerial attacks. 

This immediately violated ceasefire, combined with the latest military parade in Moscow, are efforts to conceal the Russian military's abject failures on the battlefield, where its forces are taking less territory for more casualties than at any time in their already disastrous war. Russia is on track to suffer its millionth casualty in Ukraine later this month. There is no expectation of a parade to celebrate. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The Russians have actually stepped up the tempo of their ground combat operations during their 3-day truce - more evidence that Russian ceasefires should be viewed skeptically. (Yet) Russia’s territorial gains have remained small over the last few months. (And) the Russians suffered 180 casualties for every square kilometre of Ukrainian territory they occupied in April 2025 and 274 casualties for every square km in March 2025. If current rates are sustained they are likely to chalk up their millionth casualty towards the end of May. The Kremlin relies on disinformation to conceal Putin's and Russia's weaknesses. These include grandiose military parades. The Kremlin's efforts, however, reveal that it is plagued with military and domestic weaknesses that it desperately tries to conceal.

During the Russian three day truce, there was no significant pause in Russian combat operations or attacks against Ukrainian positions in the north-eastern, eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. On 9 May, the Centre for Defence Strategies daily update listed 193 combat engagements. On 10 May, it listed 196 combat engagements. The week before, on 2 May there were 140 combat engagements, and on 3 May there were 139.

The Russians appear to have actually stepped up the tempo of their ground combat operations during their 3-day truce. This is yet more evidence that any Russian agreements about ceasefires should be viewed very skeptically, and monitored carefully.

During the week, Ukrainian forces continued their counter attacks in eastern and north-eastern Ukraine. They made minor gains on the following axes of advance:

• Toretsk.

• Kursk.

• Pokrovsk.

Russia meanwhile continued its offensive operations on the ground and in the air across the theatre. In particular, they made minor gains in terrain on the following axes of advance:

• Kursk.

• Sumy.

• Kupyansk.

• Lyman.

• Toretsk.

• Pokrovsk.

• Novopavlivka.

• Huliaypole.

• Orikhiv

Russia’s territorial gains have remained small over the last few months. As a briefing by British military intelligence showed this week, the Russians seized about 5 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory per day in the month of April.

Source: @DefenceHQ

If we recall the casualty statistics for Russia over the same month (see graph below), this means that the Russians are suffering about 180 casualties for every square kilometre of Ukrainian territory that they illegally occupied in April 2025 and 274 casualties for every square kilometre of Ukrainian territory that they illegally occupied in March 2025.

Source: @DefenceHQ

Assessment. How long the Russian army can continue to sustain this level of casualties for such a small return remains to be seen. As of 10 May, Russian casualties since 24 February 2022 stand at just over 964,000. If current casualty trends are sustained, the Russians are likely to chalk up their millionth casualty in Ukraine sometime towards the end of May.

That is some achievement for what was claimed to be the second best army in the world in 2021. If this is the kind of ‘success’ that is celebrated at Red Square on Victory Day, I would really love to know what a Russian military disaster looks like. The reality is that no nation can sustain such losses, for such little return, indefinitely. Russia knows this, but it is hoping that it can sustain these losses for a day longer than Ukraine can.

Of course, the big unknown is the actual loss ratio between Ukraine and Russia. If Ukraine can impose an increased loss ratio on the Russians which is greater than their population ratio, it will put Ukraine on a positive trend for 2025. It will also force Putin to make some big decisions about another potential mobilisation initiaitive, particularly if his Spring and Summer offensives result in minor gains but high casualties.

Ultimately, Ukraine has to not only deny Russia the capacity to take too much territory, but it needs to continue signalling that Ukraine’s sovereignty will not be destroyed by the Russian military. It is Ukraine’s sovereignty that is Putin’s real target, not territory.

Finally, this week the Institute for the Study of War published an examination of Russia’s weaknesses and how these might be exploited by Ukraine and it partners. As the report finds:

The Kremlin relies on numerous information efforts to conceal Putin's and Russia's weaknesses. These efforts include but are not limited to grandiose military parades, demonstrative war zone visits, meetings with veterans and their families, and misrepresentation of Russia's battlefield realities. These efforts allow the Kremlin to justify its war efforts in Ukraine, legitimize its rule, and manipulate the Western perception of Russia's capabilities. The abundance and the Kremlin's prioritization of these information efforts, however, reveal that the Kremlin is plagued with military, domestic, and diplomatic weaknesses that it desperately tries to misrepresent and conceal.