Russia’s war on Ukraine is a meatgrinder and a metal-shredder—and it spares no division, (even once) elite formations. In the last few days, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division attacked Ukrainian lines in Kursk Oblast on electric scooters. Having written off 17,000 armored vehicles and other equipment since February 2022—thousands more than Russian industry could build or recover from storage, the Russians are caught in a mechanization death spiral. A year ago, the division began operating 70-year-old T-55 tanks in place of the modern T-72s and T-90s it lost in action, is indicative of the degradation of Russian forces as the Kremlin keeps ordering its forces to attack despite staggering losses and improved Ukrainian defenses, anchored by the world’s most powerful arsenal of attack drones.
As recently as two years ago, the Russian 76th Guards Air Assault Division was an elite formation, with better equipment and training than most Russian regiments and divisions.
But Russia’s wider war on Ukraine is a meatgrinder and a metal-shredder—and it spares no division. It’s not for no reason that, in just the last few days, we’ve seen 76th GAAD paratroopers attack Ukrainian lines along the border in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast on electric scooters. The same paratroopers have also chopped the roof off at least one Lada compact car to transform it into a sort of easy-to-dismount but easier-to-destroy assault vehicle.
Having written off 17,000 armored vehicles and other heavy equipment since February 2022—thousands more vehicles than Russian industry could build new or recover from long-term storage—the Russian military is caught in a mechanization death spiral: deploying more civilian vehicles, which get destroyed even faster than the military vehicles do, requiring the deployment of more civilian vehicles. So on and so forth until Russian infantry have no choice but to march, or limp, into battle.
The first sign of gradual collapse inside the 76th GAAD came a year ago, when the division began operating 70-year-old T-55 tanks in place of the modern T-72s and T-90s it once possessed, and had lost in action in large numbers. It got worse for the division as it fought on in southern Ukraine and then in Kursk.
Depleted divisions
The degradation of the 76th GAAD is indicative of the wider degradation of the entire Russian armed forces as the Kremlin keeps ordering its forces to attack, attack, attack—despite the staggering losses and improving Ukrainian defenses, anchored by the world’s most powerful arsenal of attack drones.
Still, the 76th GAAD’s commanders persist in believing the unit is elite—with disastrous results for the rank and file. “The command of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade overestimated their own capabilities and failed to operate effectively on a broad front,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted last week.
Analyst Andrew Perpetua diagnosed this mismatch between command confidence and the actual capabilities of once-elite, now-demechanized Russian formations. “I think Russia is acting ridiculously irrationally,” Perpetua said.
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