Ukraine Is Winning the War Now - And Putin Knows It

By most measures, Ukraine is now winning this war and trends are in its favor. Russia is barely replacing personnel losses, but has resorted to using motorcycles, school buses and civilian cars for attacks because it needs to retain what armor it has left in case of war with NATO, China or other emergencies - such as a surprise Ukrainian offensive this summer to further embarrass the Kremlin and undermine its false claims of military superiority. 

Putin would probably be willing to settle for taking what he has grabbed so far and then waiting for another chance in a year or so. But his problem is, after all the casualties and economic sacrifices, he needs to make a credible claim of 'victory,' which is difficult as long as Ukraine retains its hold on Russian territories along the joint border. That is the logical explanation for his intransigence heading into the Istanbul talks that may or may not happen. So his behavior represents a trade-off between holding on vs the threat that his troops crack and the Ukrainians break through. JL 

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is winning this war right now.  And its advantages continue to accumulate. Most  war measures are trending in Ukraine’s favor. Russia’s equipment continues to degrade, they are trading massive casualties for little gain, and the Russian economy is nearing stagflation. Which means Ukraine's greatest opportunity is coming. Russia will be breaking and Ukraine needs to take advantage. When even Putin realizes he needs to quit while ahead, he will move to a peace deal to freeze the lines where they are before Ukraine takes advantage of Russian weakness and pushes them back.  But Putin needs to watch his back at home, and that is easier if he can sell his war as a victory. Ukrainian control of Russian territory puts a giant wrench in this.

Before I delve into the meat of this, I need to make 2 things very clear up front.  The only people who should make a decision about peace in Ukraine are the Ukrainians.  I am not suggesting what they should do but trying to clarify what they MIGHT be doing.  And two, only the Ukrainians have the information they need to make these decisions, I am merely covering the possibility they have the ability to fight on.  If Ukraine wants to stop fighting, I will support them.

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It has been painful for me watching a “peace process” in which the clear goal of the US is to freeze the conflict where it is.  That goal results in roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory being under de facto control of Russia for some unknown amount of time.  In that territory they will continue their process of Ukrainian Genocide, terror, concentration camps, and brainwashing (or kidnapping) of children.  The long stated goal of Ukraine has been the complete recovery of all the internationally recognized land of Ukraine.  Until I hear otherwise from Ukraine, I will assume that continues to be the goal.  Which has put Ukraine in a very awkward place.

Ukraine very much wants peace, but they want a just peace where it is safe for all Ukrainians to be Ukrainian (at least within the international borders of Ukraine).  Ukraine wants the international rules of no aggressive wars of conquest to be upheld.  A freezing of the current lines is a reward for Russia and does nothing to prevent future war in Ukraine or in other hotspots around the world.

But due to their dependence on Western Aid, including a significantly valuable stream of intelligence from the US as well as the ability to get parts and US equipment transferred from other nations, they have needed to make it very clear they are on the pro-peace side.  And Zelensky has played his hand perfectly.  He joined on with a single month cease-fire gambling on Putin rejecting it and Zelensky has apparently gotten through to Trump that Ukraine is the good guy here.  Take this last sentence with a ton of salt, who really knows what goes on in Trumps head, but at the moment he’s supporting Ukraine more than he has.  Zelensky even had his negotiators turn the Mineral Deal into something that was not utterly awful for Ukraine and serves as a means to keep Trumps interest pointed towards Ukraine and for the moment not wandering back towards Russia.  We’ll see how long that lasts the next time Trump talks to Putin, but for the moment it seems to be working.

But the US meddling aside, most of the war measures are trending in Ukraine’s favor.  Russia’s equipment continues to degrade in the field, they are trading massive casualties for little gain, and the Russian economy is reaching the breaking point as it's clearly headed into stagflation.  The biggest concern for Ukraine is the continued manpower issues, but the Russians will be entering their own manpower issues soon as well.  While much may still happen to upend the current trends, Ukraine is winning this war right now.  And as it goes forward, the advantages continue to accumulate for Ukraine.

Yes, you’ve heard this all before from me and others and are still waiting.  But while the timeline was all wrong, the general trend has been correct.  Wars don’t last forever.  Something will eventually break.  And what has kept Russia from breaking this whole time has been a willingness to go to ever further lengths to push Russia far beyond its normal capability.  When most other nations would have called it quits, Putin pushes Russia on.  But this all comes at a cost as you can plainly see in the loss of the entire stockpile of leftover Soviet gear and Russia’s disintegrating economy.  Russia cannot keeping going at this pace.

Which means Ukraines second greatest opportunity in this war is still coming.  The first one was at the end of 2022 when Russia was on its back foot and had too little manpower in the field.  But due to reasons unclear to outsiders (including me) they could not, or would not, press forward and instead waited until the ill-fated summer 2023 to try to attack.  In that 6 months Russia built impressive defensive lines and fixed its manpower issue of the time.

But this opportunity comes at the end.  Russia will be breaking and Ukraine needs to take advantage.  There will come a point when even Putin realizes he needs to quit while ahead and will quickly move over to a peace deal to freeze the lines where they are before Ukraine can take advantage of Russian weakness and push them back.  But Putin needs to watch his back at home, and that switch is easier to make the more he can sell his operation as a victory.  But Ukrainian control of Russian land puts a giant wrench in this.

 

Putin’s ego or worry about impact at home may be keeping him in this conflict longer that even he wants and will continue to do so.  Ukraine holding a chunk of Russian land means they have more control over the peace process.   Should they not have a chunk of Russian land, then Putin’s decision to switch over to an advantageous peace is much easier.  But now, he is encouraged to roll on and wear out his country even more in the hopes of getting those scraps of land back.  Yes those scraps are tiny, but they are non-zero.  

This control over the peace process will hopefully allow Ukraine to pull a final rabbit out of the hat.  I would not be surprised they are preparing in secret a final big push.  They will threaten Russia along the border in various places, but I expect a main push by Ukraine into a chunk of occupied land at a time and place meant to break Russian forces.  And I mean I see them going for that mythical and elusive Russian collapse and I think they have a good chance for it.  But they need the peace process to go slowly enough to accomplish that before things are frozen.