A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jun 12, 2025

Russia's Sumy 'Offensive,' Which Just Began, Has Already Been Stopped

Well that was quick. Russia's Sumy offensive, which many western media were predicting would doom Ukraine, has, according to multiple sources, already been stopped by Ukrainian forces. 

The primary reasons are Ukraine's defenses in depth, similar to those that stymied Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive. But Ukraine's drone operators and its continued incursions in Kursk are also thwarting Russia's effort. This is not to say that Russia won't keep trying and that they won't make some advances, but the entire situation could be very efficient for western reporters who can simply refile their stories about Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, etc and simply change the place name. JL

Espreso Global reports:

In the past few days, the Russian advance in the Sumy region has stopped, likely because they have run into Ukrainian engineering fortifications, which are built along a line 8–10 km from the border. "They are trying to extend their attacks to the Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions but 50,000 troops is far too few to achieve such an ambitious goal. Now they are wandering around there, trying to break our resistance. Their attempts to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region are just a byproduct of the processes taking place to the west and southwest of Pokrovsk." 

In the past few days, the Russian advance in the Sumy region has stopped, likely because they have run into Ukrainian engineering fortifications, which are built along a line 8–10 km from the state border

Vladyslav Selezniov, military expert and former spokesperson of the Ukrainian General Staff, said this on Espreso TV.

He believes that this summer, Russia will try to implement the plan of creating a 'buffer zone' in the territory of Sumy region.

"In case of success, they will try to extend these processes to the Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions. I have my doubts about this, because 50,000 troops is far too few to achieve such an ambitious goal. Moreover, Ukrainian forces are not lagging behind—they are conducting certain operations on Russian border territory, particularly in the settlement of Tyotkino. The coming weeks will be very telling in terms of what the enemy is capable of. In the past few days, the Russian advance in the Sumy region has stopped. I suspect they have run into our engineering fortifications, which are built along a line 8–10 km from the state border. Now they are wandering around there, trying to break our resistance," Selezniov noted.

In the expert’s opinion, Russia will focus its efforts this summer specifically on the territory of Donetsk region.

 

"Their attempts to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region are just a byproduct of the processes taking place to the west and southwest of Pokrovsk. In fact, Russia is trying to form the jaws of an operational encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad urban agglomeration. From the west, they are operating on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions, and from the east, they are trying to envelop our group defending Myrnohrad with a wide sweep. This group is also forming a strike bridgehead from the southwest to attack Kostiantynivka. This summer, the enemy will try to use as many forces and resources as possible to attack the urban agglomeration in Donetsk region—Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. The dynamics of the fighting in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Lyman are also very telling," Selezniov summarized.

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