A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 19, 2025

Putin No Longer Has A Strategy For the War. He Is A Tactician Trying To Survive

Once upon a time, Putin had a grand strategy for his war against Ukraine: to eliminate it as a nation, destroy its government and culture, enslave its people and make it once again a vassal of Russia. 

But that strategy failed. And after 3.5 years of fruitless war, it cannot succeed. Which means Putin has become a tactician focused solely on the infrequent and limited gains he can find to offset the broader successes of his enemy. His latest offensive has been stopped - just like his previous ones did. He has nothing left to do but scrabble for scraps in hopes that suffices to prevent being ousted by his own courtiers. JL

Nadia Boianivska reports in Espreso Global:

At the beginning of the war in 2022, Putin had a strategic goal: to capture Ukraine and make it a vassal of Russia. And after the failure of this so-called strategy, Putin simply got bogged down in his aggressive war. He has no grand strategy for the war at the moment. Putin is not a strategist. He is at most a tactician. To organize a major offensive in all directions -battles in eastern Ukraine, in Donbas, in the north near Sumy, take a bridgehead, try to advance on Zaporizhzhia - is not a strategy. Ukraine has been able to deter this offensive. There is no longer a grand strategy for the war.

Putin has no grand strategy for the war in Ukraine, making him hard to predict, but he aims for a major offensive on all fronts this season

Major General Alnur Musayev, a figure of the Soviet and Kazakh special services, chairman of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan in 1999-2001, and now an oppositionist and political migrant, expressed this opinion in an interview with Espreso TV.

"It's quite difficult to predict whether Putin has any great strategic plan at the moment. Many political analysts, military and intelligence officials have realized that Putin is not a strategist. He is at most a tactician. At the beginning of the war in 2022, he had a strategic goal: to capture Ukraine and make it a vassal of Russia. And after the failure of this so-called strategy, Putin simply got bogged down in his aggressive war, the end of which is not in sight. No one sees the end, and Putin himself does not see it. He once again told Trump that in 60 days he would seize all four regions that he had written into his constitution. Trump was forced to meet him and say: "Yes, I give you until September. Please take over," the general commented.

 

In his opinion, Putin does not have a strategy, but he does have a desire to organize a major offensive in all directions this season. However, according to many experts, it is very difficult for Putin to realize these intentions. Ukraine is now able to deter this offensive.

"The offensive continues, we are well aware of this and know that there are battles in eastern Ukraine, in Donbas, in the north near Sumy, they have taken a bridgehead, they are trying to advance on Zaporizhzhia - we are noticing all this. According to military experts, a strike is being prepared, which may take place within a little more than two months. Therefore, there is no strategy. And to use these 50 days, which he himself asked Trump for, if we officially get out of this situation, the situation will also change during this time," Musayev summarized.