A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 5, 2025

Russia Does Not Have 'Strategic Capability' To Occupy More Of Ukraine

In the history of warfare, no army preparing an invasion and follow-up offensives has utterly failed to occupy more of the enemy's territory as Russia has failed to do in Ukraine.

And the reason the Russians have not done so is because they are incapable of doing so. If they could have, they would have. They are not - and will not. JL

Espreso Global reports
:

Russia does not have the strategic potential to occupy a significant part of Ukraine’s territory. Attempts to capture key cities, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, or Sumy, currently seem unlikely. "In the history of warfare, over thousands of years, there has never been an army that has been preparing for an offensive and has not advanced at all. The Russians have had some tactical success, but they do not have the strategic capabilities to occupy a significant part of Ukraine. If they could do it, they would have already done it." 

Russia does not have the strategic potential to occupy a significant part of Ukraine’s territory. Attempts to capture key cities, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, or Sumy, currently seem unlikely

National Guard Major Oleksii Hetman expressed the opinion on Espreso TV.

"In the entire history of warfare, over the past thousands of years, there has never been an army that has been preparing for an offensive and has not advanced at all. The only question is how far it can advance and at what cost. That is, they have had some tactical success, but they do not have the strategic capabilities to occupy a significant part of our country. If they could do it, they would have already done it," noted Hetman.

According to him, despite the existing threats, the Russians have been trying to surround Pokrovsk for more than a year without success.

"For a year now, it has been reported that the Russians are advancing on the Eastern Front - Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kostiantynivka, Chasiv Yar - but they have not actually been able to advance anywhere. Pokrovsk is still standing. Therefore, to assume that they will be able to capture Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kharkiv or Sumy is, of course, a guesswork, but the probability of this is extremely low," emphasized Hetman.

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