At Current Rate Russia Needs Four Years To Take Donbas - If It Even Can

In almost four years of war, Russia has managed to capture about one third of Donetsk oblast - and shows no signs of ever being able to take the rest by force - though some predict they might do so in four years of war - or if Ukraine willingly withdrew its troops. Which is why Putin is trying so desperately to have President Trump hand it over to him in negotiations. 

But Ukraine's "Fortress Belt" of heavily defended cities is not going to be given up in return for a ceasefire Putin is sure to violate so the Russian's goal remains a dream. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Russian forces would need another four years to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia could capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast only if Ukraine withdrew its troops from the area. Zelensky has repeatedly stressed that Ukrainian Defense Forces will not withdraw from the unoccupied part of Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire. “In almost four years of full-scale war, they have occupied a third of Donetsk Oblast. So the stories about them capturing Donbas by the end of the year — that’s all idle talk. To occupy Donbas, they would need another four years.”

Russian forces would need another four years to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a press briefing on Aug. 20, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

He dismissed reports that Russia could seize all of Donbas by year’s end as “idle talk.” Since the start of the full-scale war, Russian troops have captured roughly a third of Donetsk Oblast and now control up to 69% of the region.

“In almost four years of full-scale war, they have occupied a third of Donetsk Oblast. So I explained that the stories about them capturing our Donbas by the end of the year — that’s all idle talk. To occupy our Donbas, they would need another four years,” Zelenskyy said.

 

He also stressed that Russian forces would not be able to hold Ukraine’s border areas in Sumy Oblast and “in the long run” would fail to seize Kharkiv Oblast.

 

“It’s a matter of time: a few months — and they’ll be gone from Sumy,” Zelenskyy said. He added that Ukraine would never legally recognize Russia’s occupation of its territory.

On Aug. 17, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia could quickly capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast only if Ukraine withdrew its troops from the area. Otherwise, Moscow’s attempt to seize the region would take several more years. ISW also assessed that Vladimir Putin’s true goal is political control over all of Ukraine, not merely the capture of individual regions.

Earlier, several Western media outlets reported that during his meeting with Trump in Alaska, Putin laid out demands for a “territorial exchange” with Ukraine. Fox News said the dictator wanted control over Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in return for freezing the front in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson oblasts.

Reuters reported that Russia was prepared to give up some occupied Ukrainian territories, including in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, while Kyiv would hand over parts of its eastern lands that Moscow has so far failed to capture, according to the “proposals” Putin and Trump discussed in Alaska.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that Ukrainians will not surrender their land to the occupiers and that the issue of territory is enshrined in Ukraine’s Constitution, which no one will violate. He also said Ukraine’s Defense Forces will not withdraw from the unoccupied part of Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire.