Russian Chances Of Taking Pokrovsk This Summer Now "Virtually Nil"

Russia started its attack towards Pokrovsk 18 months ago. And despite a summer offensive which deployed as many as 110,000 Russian soldiers in the effort, the Ukrainians still control it. 

As summer ends with autumn rains and mud in the offing, Russia's chances of taking Pokrovsk are now, as one expert stated, "virtually nil." The Russians had their chances - more by accident than design - but as was predicted six months ago, Russia no longer possesses the troops or equipment - especially armor - to make that happen. Ukraine's flexible, adaptive tactics, intelligence and drones sealed the Russians' fate in that sector. Putin is still making demands and acting as if he is in control but his visit to China this coming weekend is that of a vassal coming hat in hand to beg for assistance. His biggest problem is that China knows that, too. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

After finally conquering the ruins of Avdiivka north of Donetsk city in February 2024, Russian armies ground 25 miles west to take Pokrovsk, (but) 18 months and tens of thousands of casualties later, that goal is slipping away. “With only days left before the fall season, the chances of Russia taking Pokrovsk by summer’s end are virtually nil.” Russia massed 110,000 troops in the sector this summer, outnumbering the Ukrainians three to one. But Ukraine’s local drone superiority - 5 drones for every Russian soldier - and Ukrainian counterattacks targeting the over-extended 51st Combined Arms Army, the Russians pushed too hard in the wrong places—and despite being outnumbered three to one, the Ukrainians countered with a flexible, mobile defense.

Russian infantry around Pokrovsk are stretched thin, exhausted and—if one Ukrainian drone team’s assessment is accurate—hugely outnumbered by Ukrainian first-person-view drones.

The shifting balance of power—away from the Russian field armies and toward the reinforced Ukrainian brigades in and around Pokrovsk—is good news for Ukraine as the yearlong battle for the eastern fortress city ebbs.

Even the most optimistic Ukrainian troops described Pokrovsk’s fall as “just a matter of time” as a clutch of Russian field armies massed 110,000 troops in the sector this summer, at times outnumbering the Ukrainians three to one.

But Ukraine’s local drone superiority, and Ukrainian counterattacks targeting the over-extended 51st Combined Arms Army in recent weeks, may delay the inevitable—and exact an even greater toll on the attacking Russians before the surviving attackers finally march into Pokrovsk.

The Ukrainian Peaky Blinders drone team, which has been deployed around Pokrovsk “for some time,” according to the team, has noted the decline in Russian combat power in the sector.

 

Russian first-person-view drones finally hunted down and disabled an internet-famous Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank that had been ruthlessly hunting down and blasting Russian infiltrators in the fortress city of Pokrovsk, in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. 

But that tank and its four crew from the Ukrainian army’s 155th Mechanized Brigade did their job. “So far, Ukraine’s stabilization measures around Pokrovsk look broadly promising,” wrote Tatarigami, the founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight.

After finally conquering the ruins of Avdiivka just north of Russian-occupied Donetsk city in February 2024, a clutch of Russian field armies ground west, trading bodies and equipment for every yard it advanced.

Eighteen months and tens of thousands of casualties later, the Russians had marched the 25 miles to Pokrovsk: the last urban stronghold between the 110,000 Russians in the sector and the main Ukrainian defensive line threading through Kramatorsk to Slovyansk.

It was always the Kremlin’s goal to capture Pokrovsk, a mining town with a pre-war population of 60,000, before the coming muddy season complicates offensive action. That goal is slipping away. “With only days left before the fall season, the chances of Russia taking Pokrovsk by summer’s end are virtually nil,” Tatarigami wrote.

It’s clear what went wrong. The Russians pushed too hard in the wrong places—and despite being outnumbered three to one, the Ukrainians countered with a flexible, mobile defense. “Russia way over-extended,” noted American analyst Andrew Perpetua.