The 10 Most Important Lessons From Ukraine War May Not Be What You Think

The ten most important lessons for global nations and their militaries so far are, according to experts, as follows: mass and national mobilization, cognitive warfare and intersocietal conflict, people, meshed commercial and military sensor networks, ubiquitous uncrewed systems, cheaper accessible precision deep strikes, the importance of alliances, rapidly expanding adaptation, surprise, leadership.

While many may focus on drones, the vulnerability of armor and helicopters or the importance of trenches, it is the macro issues delineated above - especially people and their will to endure - which have allowed Ukraine to survive in this unequal fight. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

One of the biggest growth industries in national security affairs in the past few years has been the study of lessons from the war in Ukraine since February 2022. Military institutions cannot afford to wait for the end of the war in Ukraine to achieve greater certainty about what lessons should be incorporated into western force design, strategy, and training. Consequently, the assessment of key trends is an ongoing project. Military institutions must learn and adapt with the best knowledge available to them now.

While much attention is focused at present on Trump and Putin dancing around the potential for peace in Ukraine (only one of them appears to be even remotely serious about this), the war in Ukraine and Russia continues. On the ground, Russia is making some headway in its constant attacks in eastern Ukraine, although it continues to take enormous numbers (though replaceable) of casualties. The Ukrainian armed forces have evolved their defensive strategy to incorporate even more significant defensive fortifications, coupled with the implementation of the drone wall.

In the air, both Ukraine and Russia are executing and implementing their long-range strike campaigns. Russia, which is attacking military and civilian targets, is slowly but surely expanding the size and scope of its strikes with its increasing production of Shahed and Geran drones. Ukraine, while constantly adapting its air and missile defences against these Russian attacks, is also focusing its offensive air campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, air defence units as well as military and transportation targets.

One of the biggest growth industries in national security affairs in the past few years has been the study of lessons from the war in Ukraine since February 2022. These vary in quality from the very excellent and well-evidenced studies from European, Ukrainian and American sources, through to the lesser quality material that often washes through social media.

Despite this work, lessons or observations from military conflicts do not always provide a direct template for other nations to follow in other parts of the world. This is for reasons of geography, political factors, infrastructure, culture and the strategic circumstances of each conflict. But it is possible to translate the insights from the war in Ukraine if one can define the key specific characteristics in different theatres through which lessons from Ukraine might be filtered.

For this reason, I will soon be publishing a significant report that examines how we might better contextualize the insights from Ukraine so they are applicable for military operations, and strategic affairs, in the Pacific theatre.

To be published by the Australian Army Research Centre in August, the report will provide a detailed look at the issue of how relevant lessons from Ukraine are for the Pacific theatre and the nations that are currently conducting military operations there.

This new report, which I preview below, will explore key trends in the Ukraine conflict, highlighting the unprecedented visibility provided by open-source sensors, social media platforms, think tank assessments and media access to battlefield operations. There is a caveat to his however. While this visibility has contributed to a broader understanding of the conflict’s trajectory and the employment of innovative technologies, the inherent "fog of war" continues to obscure numerous aspects. It is anticipated that certain elements of this conflict may remain unknown or shrouded in ambiguity for years to come.

In addition to examining the lessons from the war in Ukraine, my new report will also provide a list of factors that differentiate the Pacific theatre from the eastern European frontline situation. It then uses these factors – or translation filters – to ascertain how (and if) lessons from Ukraine might apply to military operations in the Pacific theatre.

Finally, given the insights from Ukraine, and the translation of those lessons for the distinct political, technological, and geographic environment of the Pacific, the paper provides recommendations that might help focus the absorption of lessons from Ukraine into the military institutions who will operate in the Pacific.

Ten Big Lessons from the Ukraine War

As the war in Ukraine has continued, the understanding of trends from the war in Western military and academic institutions has evolved. The world and the international security environment is evolving quickly. Military institutions cannot afford to wait for the end of the war in Ukraine to achieve greater certainty about what lessons should be incorporated into western force design, strategy, and training. Consequently, the assessment of key trends is an ongoing project. Military institutions must learn and adapt with the best knowledge available to them now.

While there are sure to be many other insights that can be gleaned from the war, the ten lessons listed below, are the most important for governments and military organisations to respond to now.

1. Mass and national mobilization.

2. Cognitive warfare and inter-societal conflict.

3. People.

4. Meshed commercial-military sensor networks.

5. Ubiquitous uncrewed systems.

6. Cheaper, accessible precision deep strike.

7. The importance of alliances.

8. Rapidly expanding adaptation war.

9. Surprise.

10. Leadership.