A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 6, 2025

Ukraine Is Buying Europe Time To Prepare Defenses Against Russia

As the Ukrainians continue to fight the Russian invaders - keeping the Kremlin's military bogged down in Ukraine - they are buying time for Europe to rearm and build their capabilities as the US, on whom the Europeans relied militarily for several generations, have become an uncertain ally.

The Europeans are already making progress in their own defense, but it is unlikely they would have perceived the threat - let alone determined to meet it - were it not for the Ukrainians' tenacity and success, which has forced the Russians to waste a decade's worth of troops and equipment. JL

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Ukrainian troops battling Russian forces are "buying time" for European countries to dramatically shore up their defenses. European nations have relied for decades on the U.S. to provide some of the continent's most expensive capabilities, but the US is pivoting its attention to China. Europe must increase its military capabilities while Russia is "bogged down in Ukraine." NATO nations committed to pouring money into defense and upping production, "and that's exactly what we are doing, We are already making progress. We should be grateful to Ukrainians that they are still defending."

Ukrainian troops battling Russian forces are "buying time" for European countries to dramatically shore up their defenses, the head of the Czech military told Newsweek.

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is months into attempts to reach a deal to end fighting in Ukraine, but Russia's and Ukraine's demands still seem too far apart for an agreement to be currently within touching distance.

"If Ukrainians are fighting them, like they do now, they [are] buying us time — that's reality," said General Karel Řehka, the chief of the Czech General Staff. "Ukraine [is] buying time for Europe to get our stuff together, and start some effective deterrence and defense."

Europe, which has looked on with concern at how a ceasefire or peace deal could chart the continent's course, is heavily investing in defense after years of turning away from military spending in the wake of the Cold War.Ukraine Recruits Join Military Training

In this photo provided by Ukraine's 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, recruits practice military skills on a training ground on a sunflower field in the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine on August 11, 2025.

 

European nations have relied for decades on the U.S. to provide some of the continent's most expensive capabilities, but officials say worries around Europe's militaries also extend much wider, to areas like training and infrastructure.

The U.S. has indicated it wants to pivot its attention toward China and the Indo-Pacific, while European officials broadly agree the continent's NATO members need to contribute more toward the alliance. NATO states pledged in June to dedicate 3.5 percent of GDP on hard military spending and another 1.5 percent on related areas in the next decade.

The Czech government said earlier this year it would increase its core defense spending to 3 percent of GDP by 2030.

 

European intelligence estimates vary somewhat, but several say Russia could be poised to attack a NATO nation in the next five years, if it is not tied up on the frontlines in Ukraine. Other factors, like who sits in the Oval Office, also influence the calculations.

Řehka, who was speaking at the sidelines of a defense summit in the Czech capital, said the war in Ukraine dragging on was not a positive thing, but "we should be grateful to Ukrainians that they are still defending."

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and has claimed to have annexed the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of eastern Ukraine. Moscow had seized control of the Crimean peninsula to the south of mainland Ukraine in 2014 when it backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions collectively known as the industrial Donbas.

More than three and a half years of full-scale war, and a grip on roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory, has cost Russia's ground forces and personnel dearly. Estimates from Ukrainian authorities have regularly put Russia's casualty count as over 1,000 soldiers each day, while Moscow has thrown thousands of its armored vehicles and tanks into the fray.

 

Although Russia has propped up its forces with supplies from the Kremlin's key allies, like North Korea, its factories have dramatically kicked up production of vehicles, artillery and missiles, including advanced weapons debuted in strikes on Ukraine.

 

NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, said on Wednesday Russia was funneling 40 percent of its budget toward the war effort, and repeated statistics indicating Moscow is on track to produce at least 1,500 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles by the end of the year.

Russia, along with China, is "producing weapons and heavy military equipment at a remarkable, I might say, at a staggering, rate," Rutte said in Prague. China, which has denied Western accusations of being a vital supporter to Russia's invasion, declared a "no limits" partnership with Moscow just before Russian tanks rolled over the border into Ukraine in 2022. Beijing's links with Moscow are at an "unprecedented level," Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a show of Chinese military strength in Beijing this week.

Swedish defense minister, Pål Jonson, told Newsweek this week that Europe must vastly increase its military capabilities while Russia is "bogged down in Ukraine."

NATO officials have warned that if Russia no longer needs its soldiers in the fierce battles along the hundreds of miles of frontlines in Ukraine, it will repopulate major bases it emptied close to NATO's eastern flank. Satellite imagery has shown Russia is building military infrastructure close to NATO member Finland, but NATO's military leaders, while watching closely, have downplayed concerns about these constructions.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that 26 countries had agreed to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a deal, including an international force in the country. The U.S. role will be firmed up in the next few days, Macron said, and did not name the 26 nations.

Many European countries joined up to the London- and Paris-lead "coalition of the willing" to provide security guarantees for Ukraine earlier this year, but were clear that the U.S. needed to be involved in some way to provide a "backstop."

 

'Already Making Progress'

NATO nations committed to pouring money into defense and upping production on the continent, "and that's exactly what we are doing," Rutte said. "We are, I can tell you, already making progress."

"Work is in progress, but we are still not there," Pavel Fischer, the chair of the Czech foreign affairs, defense and security committee, told Newsweek.

But the job at hand for Europe is mammoth. Despite NATO officials doubling down on how urgently stockpiles must be refilled and troops trained, the road to delivering new systems to bolstered bases is a long one.

Long lead times and delays have hit countries that sent large chunks of their equipment and ammunition to Ukraine, and European industrial output — nor, sometimes, the raw materials — simply isn't there yet.

 

Still looming, too, is the tricky question of how much kit Europe can continue buying from the U.S. Europe faces a balancing act of trying to keep America enmeshed in European defense, while following through on promises to have European industry benefit from waves of fresh funding. The Trump administration said it wants Europe to up spending but continue to be U.S. customers.

What isn't clear is who needs to make the next move; some industry sources say the orders haven't hit their books yet, so they can't get moving on expanding production lines and pumping out equipment. Political officials often insist the will is there from their side, the money earmarked.

It can "never [be] fast enough," one European defense official remarked at the Prague defense summit. There are "a lot of gaps," they said, but Europe is "hectically trying to produce as much as possible."

But collaboration across the military, industry and political circles is improving, many say. The Czech military speaks "much more" with industry than before, Řehka said.

 

But five years is still "nothing" when trying to build up so many capabilities, the Czech chief added.

The alliance this summer gave each country what are referred to as "capability targets," or a rundown of what each member needs to put forward for the alliance's defense. The details are classified, but Rutte said one of the most hollowed-out areas was European air defense.

"We need to increase the number of air and missile defense systems five-fold," Rutte said. The NATO chief has previously said the alliance needs a 400 percent increase in air defense capabilities.

Experts, along with NATO officials, publicly and privately acknowledge gaping holes in European air defense. It is "the most serious strategic capability shortfall," the European defense official said.

 

Rutte said the alliance needed "thousands more armored vehicles and tanks," and "millions more artillery shells," as well as other capabilities like drones and space-based assets.

But these need to come in "parallel" with new, innovative technologies, said Kadri Tammai, the European director for NATO's Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic. Also known as DIANA, it is designed to help start-ups for both civilian and military technology get off the ground quickly.

"We definitely need both," Tammai told Newsweek.

1 comments:

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