Ukraine's Ups Attacks On Russian Oil - Forces Slovakia, Hungary To Beg For A Break

Ukraine's long range drone attacks on Russian oil production, refining and distribution are starting to change the strategic war situation. 

20% of Russian refining capacity is now offline, up from 17% a few weeks ago. And Putin's erstwhile allies in Slovakia and Hungary, the NATO members most likely to support him, are now pleading with Ukraine to give them surcease, Slovakia even saying it will now support Ukrainian membership. At the same time, 26 European countries have pledged sustained, additional support for Ukraine. That's the difference between Ukraine's waging strategic war and the Kremlin's terror bombing civilian housing. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

In the last few hours the Ukrainians again struck Russian oil production, refining and distribution. The Ukrainians hit the refinery in Ilsky and the Druzhba pipeline, used to transport oil in Slovakia and Hungary. This is a sustained, well thought-out strategic air/bombing campaign against targets powering the Russian war effort. The Ukrainians have kept this oil campaign up continually for more than a month. These repeat attacks show that Ukraine is methodically undertaking a plan to put them out of action or cripple them for long periods. Putin is starting to warn the Russian people about fuel shortages—and that things will get worse before they get better. The Hungarians and Slovakians first hurled threats at the Ukrainians in August for the Druzhba pipeline attacks. Now, they are pleading with the Ukrainians to give them a break. 

In just the last few hours the Ukrainians have struck with long-range UAVs two more elements in the interconnected Russian system for oil production, refining and distribution. The Ukrainians reportedly hit the Russian refinery in Ilsky, which lies in the Russian Oblast of Krasnodar Krai (the picture below is reportedly a Russian telegram shot of the refinery burning). At the same time there were reports that the Ukrainians had targeted the Russian Druzhba pipeline pumping system in Bryansk Oblast—which amongst other things is being used to transport oil onto Russia’s partners in Slovakia and Hungary.

Reportedly the Russian Refinery at Ilsky Which Was Hit Only Hours Ago

And that was just last night. Two days ago the Ukrainians claimed to have struck (again) the Russian Ryazan refinery in Russia itself (see picture at top) and oil infrastructure in occupied Luhansk. This Ryazan refinery according to Ukrainian command “has a capacity of 17.1 million tons of oil per year, is one of the four largest oil refineries in Russia. It produces:

• Various grades of gasoline,

• Diesel fuel,

• Jet fuel,

• Liquefied gases,

• Other petroleum products.

The facility is involved in supplying the Russian army.”

Not a bad week.

More and more we are getting indications that this is a sustained and well thought-out Ukrainian strategic air/bombing campaign against valuable targets that power the Russian war effort. The Ukrainians have now kept this oil campaign up continually for more than a month, from early August to today.

The Ukrainians clearly had stockpiled the systems to keep the campaign going to this point, as they are repeatedly attacking the same targets. Ryazan, for instance, was heavily attacked on August 4—reportedly leading to it losing half of its refining capacity. In the past this one attack might have been cause of celebration by Ukrainian supporters—but then they would probably have lost focus, and the Russians would have started restoring some of the lost capacity so that the long-term strategic impact of the attack would have been small.

Likewise in mid-August the Ukrainians struck the Druzhba pipeline, which caused howls of protest by the Hungarians at the time. Once again, in the past such an attack might have been celebrated, but then not followed up and the oil flow to Ukraine’s enemies would have been restored.

These repeat attacks are arguably the most important development in what we are seeing—because they show that the Ukrainians are not just trying to pull off spectacular missions, they are trying to methodically undertake a planned campaign—not just to damage certain facilities but to try and put them out of action or at least cripple them for long periods.

And more and more people are understanding what the Ukrainians are trying to do. The Economist (which has a very mixed record in this war and which regularly platforms the analytical community who said the Russian military was amazing, that Ukraine would fall in days and later that Ukraine being given ranged weapons would be no game-changer) published a piece this week which outlined the pressures Putin's state is now under because of this campaign.

According to the story about 20% of Russia’s refining capacity is now out of order (which contrasts to reports in August that the figure was just over 17%).

And these attacks are already having strategic effect on the war. Putin, for instance, is starting to warn the Russian people about fuel shortages—and letting them know that things will get worse before they get better. This week the Russian dictator (without admitting that the problem came from Ukrainian attacks) acknowledged that fuel shortages were a growing problem—particularly in the Russian Far East. You can see the typical dictator playbook here. The shortages will first be felt on the periphery, as Moscow and St Petersburg will get priority call on oil. However, that is only a temporary move—if refining capacity continues to degrade—fuel shortages will spread closer and closer to the centre.

Strategic effect can be seen in other areas. The Hungarians and Slovakians first hurled threats and bombast at the Ukrainians in August for the Druzhba pipeline attacks. Now, guess what? They are starting to plead with the Ukrainians to give them a break. Slovakian President Robert Fico (one of the most obvious of Putin’s allies inside Russia) met with Zelensky a day ago and tried to make nice. He said Slovakia stood ready to support Ukrainian membership of the EU—in an obvious attempt to curry favor with Kyiv.

Its amazing what not getting your hands on oodles of cheap Russian oil will do!

Fico meeting with Zelensky—who has the upper hand now?

The worry that both Fico and Putin are showing is that this is a real campaign, that Ukraine is not about to start, and that they need to start adjusting now. This is all heartening.

So this week provides further evidence for what has been suspected. Ukraine is going to keep up a campaign against Russian oil infrastructure for the foreseeable future—they are trying to deconstruct not just the refineries, but the delivery systems as well. Furthermore they have (at least for now) access to enough systems to keep the campaign going.

(And this is all before the Flamingos even appear in numbers).

The campaign also shows how misguided Ukraine’s “supporters” were for years in not helping Ukraine have strategic effect in Russia through ranged attack. In fewer than six weeks, Ukrainian ranged attacks in Russia are providing Ukraine with a potent means of damaging Russia’s war economy and even its alliance system (and yes, Fico and Orban are allies of Russia).

If I were the Ukrainians I would continue to attack Druzhba until both Hungary and Slovakia support Ukrainian membership of NATO. How about them apples. 20% refining capacity destruction will not be enough—but if they can keep it up…..