Russia's Advances Decline To New Low In October As Armor Fails (Again)

September heralded a new low for the war in forward movement. That it, until October. And the difference all those new tanks or IFVs made? Nada.

It turns out that the Russians are not using their once mighty armor to force breakthroughs; they're just trying to get their infantry to the frontline so they won't be killed even before their attacks start. Experts are predicting little change in the battlefield situation in the coming months - which is why Ukraine's enhanced long range attacks on energy and military production are so damaging to the Kremlin's war effort. JL

 
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Russian forward movements in October have so far declined from even their low number in September. Looking at the battle line (and we are almost 4 weeks into October) the changes are tinier than before. Armor is no longer even thought of as a breakthrough weapon. Its being used to try and ferry infantry forward for very short distances (before getting destroyed)—a form of suicide armored cars. And even then, they making little difference. At the present balance in production and technology, this situation will not change, which is why the ranged war will be the  determinative front this winter.

Russian forward movements in October have so far declined from even their low number in September. We will need to wait until the end of the month for Deep State to give its estimate of overall advances, but looking at the battle line (and we are almost 4 weeks into October) the changes are tinier than before. Here is the situation today according to Deep State.

And here is the map on September 30

Overall the largest forward movement by the Russians seems to be around 3 miles (less than a mile a week) and that is only in a few areas.

One noticeable change in the last week or so, is that the Russians are trying once again to launch attacks with armored vehicles, as new “turtle” tanks have appeared in a number of places.

Back to the Future?

And yet in these cases, and all others, its a sign of the front line quagmire that exists. Armor is no longer even thought of as a breakthrough weapon. Its being used to try and ferry infantry forward for very short distances (before getting destroyed)—a form of suicide armored cars. And even then, they making little difference.

At the present balance in production and technology, this situation will not change, which is why the ranged war will be the dynamic (and possibly determinative) front this winter.