Ukraine's New Formula For Peace: Less Talk, More Weapons

Ukraine is now manufacturing 60% of the weapons it is using to fight Russia - with the percentage for drones even higher. 

And having finally convinced NATO and the US that Putin will never negotiate unless he is forced to, Kyiv is doubling down on its commitment to fight rather than talk, convinced that the only way to persevere is to beat his forces on the battlefield - as the Ukrainians increasingly are doing. Ukraine's requests now are less focused on diplomatic efforts and more on securing the weapons it needs to make Russia feel pain. Long range attacks against the energy infrastructure on which its economy is dependent combined with front line defeats of Putin's military are forcing the Kremlin to begin to face reality, the hard way. JL

Constant Meheut reports in the New York Times:

Kyiv wants fewer talks and more weapons to strike Russia to force Moscow to negotiate an end to the war. Ukraine is betting that strikes inside Russia to hit economic assets like oil facilities and military targets raise the cost of the war for Russia. Over the past 1,000 days, Russia managed to seize less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory. While Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that Ukraine cannot recapture all of its territory, they have bolstered their push to secure more arms. Kyiv believes that, for all the talk of Western-backed security guarantees, only a huge military buildup can compel Russia to stop its aggression. "There are no security guarantees except friends and weapons."

For months, Kyiv slogged through peace talks with Moscow that it never truly believed would work. Still, eager to cater to President Trump’s push for a diplomatic solution, Ukraine sent its diplomats into round after round of meetings with American and Russian counterparts, even as the talks yielded scant results.

Now, with Mr. Trump growing increasingly frustrated with Moscow’s refusal to compromise, let alone agree to a cease-fire, Kyiv sees an opening to push for what it has long sought. It wants fewer talks and more weapons to strike Russia, as well as tougher sanctions, to force Moscow to negotiate an end to the war in earnest.

On Tuesday, a high-level Ukrainian delegation began a multiday visit in Washington to discuss deals to buy American weapons intended to hit deep inside Russia and shield Ukraine from air attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to follow with a White House visit on Friday, possibly to finalize agreements. He has been beating the drum for American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, which would bolster Kyiv’s ability to conduct long-range strikes. 

Mr. Trump hinted on Sunday that he might use the possibility of sending the powerful missiles to Ukraine to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia into laying down arms. “I might say, ‘Look, if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks,’” Mr. Trump said aboard Air Force One. The Trump administration’s willingness to discuss the delivery and use of such weapons, something the Biden administration flatly refused, marks a shift in Washington’s approach to ending the war, analysts said.

“Diplomatic efforts and peace negotiations were the No. 1 issue in the public discourse for a long time, and whenever Ukraine tried to change that narrative, it found no understanding from its partners, especially Washington,” said Sergiy Solodkyy, the director of the New Europe Center, a Kyiv-based think tank. “Now it looks like we talk the same language.”

Experts doubt that the Tomahawks can be a game changer. The missiles are usually launched from ships or submarines, which Ukraine, lacking a navy, does not possess, and the United States has only a limited number of ground launchers available. Mr. Putin has said he does not expect Washington to supply the missiles to Ukraine, while also warning against such an escalation.

Still, Ukraine is betting that strikes inside Russia to hit economic assets like oil facilities and military targets such as weapon factories could raise the cost of the war for Russia and eventually push it toward a settlement. Mr. Trump has voiced support for the approach, urging Ukraine this summer to “play offensive” rather than merely defend its territory. Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky spoke in back-to-back calls over the weekend, which Mr. Zelensky described as “very productive” in advancing efforts to secure more weapons. Asked on Monday if he would meet with Mr. Zelensky on Friday, Mr. Trump said, “I think so, yeah.”

Mr. Zelensky said the Ukrainian delegation in Washington would negotiate the purchase of air defenses and various missile systems, in addition to the Tomahawks. He previously said Ukraine had prepared a list of weapons it wanted to buy from the United States, using European funds, worth roughly $90 billion.

The delegation is also expected to discuss a deal to sell Ukrainian-made drones to Washington and launch joint drone production.

Kyiv’s emphasis on striking deals with Washington shows it has learned to speak Mr. Trump’s transactional language. While the Biden administration spent tens of billions of dollars to aid Ukraine, the Trump administration has focused on opportunities to profit through investments and sales. Mr. Zelensky used Trumpian language, calling the offer to buy air defenses and missiles a “mega deal.” Leading the Ukrainian delegation in Washington is Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. She has experience negotiating with the Trump administration after brokering a high-stakes agreement this spring giving the United States preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral riches.

Analysts say Washington’s move away from traditional peace talks toward Kyiv’s preferred approach is largely a response to Moscow’s decision to spurn negotiations while ramping up deadly attacks. Mr. Trump, who initially lavished praise on Mr. Putin, changed his tone this summer, saying that the Russian leader “talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening.”

The shift also reflects Ukraine’s efforts to show Mr. Trump that it is the most reasonable partner at the negotiating table. As Mr. Trump pursued a path toward peace in recent months, Kyiv went along with the conditions he set. That included a cease-fire it had once resisted because it feared that Moscow would use the pause to regroup and attack again. Ukraine also agreed to Mr. Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting with Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Putin.

The goal was to show that Ukraine was ready to pursue ways to end the war while Russia was not. Moscow refused both to implement the cease-fire and to attend the trilateral meeting.

“Supporting Ukraine can give Trump much faster and much better results than supporting somebody who is not ready or willing to negotiate,” said Oleksandr Kraeiv, the head of the North America Program at Ukrainian Prism, a research institute. How far that shift will go remains to be seen. After achieving a cease-fire in Gaza, Mr. Trump has said he wants to focus on a peace settlement in Ukraine. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Tuesday that Russia “welcomes such intentions” and “remains open and ready for peaceful dialogue.”

Kyiv has sought to challenge Mr. Trump’s belief that Russia, whose troops have long held the upper hand on the battlefield, was bound to win the war, analysts said. Moscow, even though its gains have been slow, has used the notion of inevitability to argue that Kyiv should settle for a peace deal now, even if it means ceding land. Mr. Trump came to support the idea of Kyiv giving up territory to end the war. At an Oval Office meeting in August, Mr. Zelensky underlined the reality of Russia’s slow advance by making use of a map of the Ukrainian battlefield that White House staff members had set up on an easel, according to Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister, who was in the room.

Mr. Zelensky pointed out that much of the Ukrainian territory currently under Russian control had been occupied before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, when Moscow illegally annexed Crimea and staged an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. Over the past 1,000 days, Mr. Zelensky added, Russia had managed to seize less than 1 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Mr. Kyslytsya said that Mr. Trump and his team listened carefully and that the American president never revisited during the meeting his earlier suggestions that Kyiv cede territory to secure a peace deal.

Whether Mr. Zelensky’s efforts helped change Mr. Trump’s views of the war remains unclear. But last month, in a sudden shift, Mr. Trump said on social media that Ukraine, with the support of Europe, was “in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

While Ukrainian officials have long acknowledged that Ukraine cannot recapture all of its territory by force, the post bolstered their push to secure more arms. Kyiv believes that, for all the talk of Western-backed security guarantees, only a huge military buildup can compel Russia to stop its aggression and deter it from invading again.

“There are no security guarantees except friends and weapons,” Mr. Zelensky told the United Nations General Assembly last month, a day after Mr. Trump’s sudden shift. “If a nation wants peace, it still has to work on weapons. It’s sick, but that’s the reality. Not international law, not cooperation — weapons decide who survives.”