Holding Pokrovsk Now Hinges On Ukraine's Advantage In Inflicting Casualties

The lines in the Pokrovsk sector have not changed much of late. And estimates suggest the Ukrainians are inflicting 5 to 8 casualties on the Russians for every one of their own. 

As long as that advantage is maintained, Ukraine will probably not withdraw. What little is left of the city is no longer strategic, it is simply a killing ground in which Ukraine can impose yet more pain on Russian forces as the Kremlin's economy becomes shakier and its commitment to war more expensive. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The fighting in and around Pokrovsk continues. Overall the lines have not changed much. And that is leading to debate. Should Ukraine withdraw? Pokrovsk is not strategically important, it makes no difference to the calculus of the war, (so) all that matters is the losses suffered by both sides in fighting over its ruins. The only other thing that could matter is the length of time the campaign takes, as that reduces follow up operations afterwards. Russia will continue to expend mass resources to take Pokrovsk. The Ukrainians have to not waste their own to keep them out. Ukrainian military lives are worth exponentially more than Russian military lives at present.

The fighting in and around Pokrovsk continues. The Russians made a few small gains this week, but overall the lines have not changed much. And that in and of itself is leading to debate. The big debate is about what Ukraine should do. There is a loud group now saying that Ukraine should pull out and stop their losses in Pokrovsk at present. At the same time, the Ukrainian military, at least for now, does not seem willing to abandon the ruins of the town.

Should Ukraine withdraw? The only truth is that no one who does not know Ukrainian and Russian losses has no idea—and that means maybe no one knows. Pokrovsk is not strategically important, it makes no difference to the strategic calculus of the war, and therefore all that matters is the losses suffered by both sides in fighting over its ruins. The only other thing that could really matter is the length of time the campaign takes, as that reduces time for follow up operations afterwards.

Knowing when the Ukrainians should pull out of a town is a tricky question. Military decisions are not like war games (though analysts too often seem to think that they are). I do not have access to the data to understand exactly what Ukraine should do—so will not guess. We do know that Russia will continue to expend mass resources to take Pokrovsk, what the Ukrainians have to do, otoh, is not waste their own mass to keep them out. Ukrainian military lives are worth exponentially more than Russian military lives at present.