No Major Changes Evident In the War Despite Kremlin Bluster

If wars could be won by aggressive rhetoric and unproven claims, Russia would dominate the world. But it doesnt, isnt - and probably wont. 

Almost a month after Ukrainian forces were supposedly withdrawing from Pokrovsk, they are still there, fighting and inflicting casualties. On other fronts, there is lots of the usual maneuvering and talk of imminent danger but no immediate threat of breakthroughs. In other words, it's business as usual: lots of Kremlin claims and Russian dead, but few, if any, real achievements. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

No major changes on the ground this week. The Russians are yet to secure the Pokrovsk pocket and clear the city of Ukrainian defenders. On 27 November, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi stated Ukrainian forces have cleared over 11 square kilometers within the Pokrovsk pocket. On the Lyman front, Russia continues to press. Russia is using a number of mercenaries from Africa on this axis of advance. Russian territorial gains in the past week hardly indicates any kind of imminent Russian breakthrough. Putin’s hypothesis at his press conference during the week that “the positive dynamics persist…our troops’ advance continues to pick up the pace,” isn’t accurate.

The Frontline. No major changes on the ground this week, however the Pokrovsk, Lyman and southern fronts remain quite dynamic and worthy of examination.

Pokrovsk. The Russians are yet to fully secure the Pokrovsk pocket and clear the city of its Ukrainian defenders. On 27 November, the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi claimed that Ukrainian forces have cleared over 11 square kilometers within the Pokrovsk pocket of Russian forces. With winter conditions coming, fog has played a key role in recent weeks. This week, the 7th Rapid Response Corps published a video that showed how foggy conditions can degrade their ability to generate situational awareness on the ground and from the air.

Pokrovsk in October. Source: Ukrainska Pravda.

In a report published by Ukrainska Pravda this week, titled “As Trump and Putin seek to force Ukraine into “peace”, what’s the situation in Donetsk Oblast?”, journalist Olha Kyrylenko describes the Pokrovsk situation as follows:

Pokrovsk – largely lost. There are still Ukrainian positions on the northern outskirts of the city, but most of Pokrovsk is under Russian control. Ukrainska Pravda has information that the entire part of the city south of the railway line, which cuts the city in half, is held by the Russians. The line of contact, according to Ukrainska Pravda’s information, runs almost along the northern edge of the city. The General Staff’s map for the Pokrovsk front is at least a month out of date.

The Lyman Front. Russia continues to press on this front. The Russians have been chipping away on this axis since at least May 2025, and have allocated higher quality ground forces and drone units (including Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies) to this effect. The Institute for the Study of War has also reported that Russia is using a number of mercenaries from Africa on this axis of advance as well.

Donetsk January-November 2025. Source: DeepState.Live

As I described in a previous update, and you can see in the above maps, this is an important axis of advance for the Russians because it comprises the northern arm of an operational envelopment of the remaining cities of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk. And if Russia were to envelop these cities, it would also permit them to claim that they had captured all of Donetsk, and thus the Donbas. This would allow Putin to claim success in one of his key war aims.

The South. Russian forces have continued offensive operations in southern Ukraine, although this is very much a secondary or even tertiary effort compared to those in the eastern and north-eastern regions of Ukraine. Russian forces this week have attacked Ukrainian positions to the east of Kherson City.

The Russians have also continued their repulsive ‘drone safari’ operations against civilian vehicles and infrastructure in Kherson City. As one assessment by The Atlantic Council recently described it:

Kherson’s current predicament should set alarm bells ringing across Europe and beyond. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely recognized as the world’s first drone war. Moscow’s human safari tactics in Kherson offer a chilling window into what this could mean when military drone technologies are unleashed against civilian populations.

Based on what is known about the Russian human safari campaign in the Kherson region, it should now be abundantly clear that drones can potentially paralyze the life of any modern city. They can be used to leave the population without access to electricity, water, and heating, while also disrupting core supply chains and even preventing people from setting foot outside.

It is a very grim situation indeed, and one that Russian military and political leaders must be held accountable for.

Finally, more reports from the south of Russian war crimes. As the Kyiv Independent reported this week, at least five Ukrainian prisoners of war were executed by Russian soldiers during a chaotic withdrawal near Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Earlier this month, Russian troops reportedly shot dead two captured Ukrainian troops on the outskirts of Zatyshshia in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Russian perpetrators were killed by a Ukrainian drone about 20 minutes later.

Assessment. Russian territorial gains in the past week were the largest since July 2025 - nearly 260 square miles (as reported by ISW and the Russia Matters report). But, this hardly indicates any kind of imminent Russian breakthrough. Putin’s hypothesis at his press conference during the week that “the positive dynamics persist in all directions…our troops’ advance in each of these directions continues to pick up the pace, and quite noticeably” isn’t accurate.

As the chart below indicates, Russia’s ground campaign in the past two years has been characterised by slow, steady gains - the “1000 bites” method - rather than any accelerating gains or great breakthrough that causes major losses in Ukrainian forces or territory.

Source: Russia Matters

Given the impending winter, and the lack of vegetation cover during that time, it will be even harder for Russian forces to mass for attacks in any proximity to the zero line. On the flip side of course, winter fog and other weather effects the limit Ukrainian use of surveillance and strike zones in the frontline areas are often used by the Russians to cover their movements on the ground, and it should be expected that they will continue to do so. The Russians have also developed their capacity for identifying weaker Ukrainian brigades, and when brigades are conducting relief-in-place operations, which they focus their attacks on.

The prospects for next year’s ground campaign include a Ukrainian defensive campaign to the west of Kupyansk in the north east of the country, and defensive campaign to hold onto the fortress cities, and thus, the remaining parts of the Donbas in Ukrainian possession