Ukraine Has Turned the Fog To Its Advantage

The initial belief was that autumn fog worked to the Russian's advantage because it grounded Ukraine's deadly aerial drones, which devastated Russian attacks. 

But what those superficial reports missed was that it also grounded Russia's drones, which were hindering Ukraine's Pokrovsk resupply efforts. Taking advantage of the Russians' fog-bound blindness enabled Ukraine to strengthen its positions. And Ukraine then employed ground drones, unencumbered by the fog, to detect Russian assaults. The UGVs send coordinates to Ukraine's artillery, which then targeted attempted Russian mechanized assaults. Hence, the Russians' reversion to small group infiltration tactics, which are far less efficient at establishing scale. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art and the Institute for the Study of War reports:

When the fog is thickest and the drone threat is lowest, the Russians attack. But then, so do the Ukrainians. “Fog is an equal-opportunity employer.” Foggy conditions disadvantage Russian as well as Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are able to exit Pokrovsk under the cover of fog which impedes Russian drone operations, facilitating continued Ukrainian logistics to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Ukraine is operating unmanned ground vehicles to detect Russian mechanized assaults exploiting fog. The UGVs transmit coordinates for FPV drone strikes that repel mechanized assaults, indicating that Ukrainian forces are developing countermeasures to Russian forces’ exploitation of foggy conditions

The fog in Ukraine gives … and it takes.

The worsening winter weather all along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s 45-month wider war on Ukraine can “significantly degrade” the drones that are usually everywhere all the time.

When the fog is thickest and the drone threat is lowest, the Russians attack. But then, so do the Ukrainians. A recent montage of drone videos, circulated by the general staff in Kyiv, depicts troopers from the Ukrainian assault branch’s 425th Assault Regiment riding into Pokrovsk in an M-113 armored personnel carrier and, in a separate shot, darting across the rail lines that bisect Pokrovsk from west to east. (See video below.)

The 425th Assault Regiment has been conducting sporadic raids into central Pokrovsk for a couple of weeks now. The thickening fog has prolonged these raids and even allowed the regiment to bring in armored vehicles. “Fog is an equal-opportunity employer,” Ukraine Control Map noted. 

Foggy conditions impede both sides’ operations, and both sides have developed approaches to mitigate their effects. A Russian milblogger acknowledged that foggy weather conditions disadvantage Russian as well as Ukrainian forces.[6] The milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces are able to exit Pokrovsk under the cover of fog and that foggy conditions are impeding Russian drone operations – likely facilitating continued Ukrainian logistics to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. A Ukrainian mechanized brigade operating in the neighboring Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area reported that Ukrainian forces employed unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to detect a Russian mechanized assault toward Rusyn Yar (south of Druzhkivka) that exploited foggy conditions.[7] The brigade reported that the UGVs then transmitted coordinates for first-person view (FPV) drone strikes that repelled the mechanized assault, indicating that Ukrainian forces are developing countermeasures to Russian forces’ exploitation of foggy conditions to launch assaults.[8] Foggy conditions are seasonal and will lift at some point, and it is unclear which side will benefit more from clearer weather.

To many observers, the winter fog is Russia’s close ally. This is an understandable mischaracterization, as the Russians have been on the offensive in Ukraine for more than two years now. They’re the ones most in need of concealment as they break cover and assault across open ground.Taking advantage of a thick winter fog on or just before Saturday, a Russian mechanized column rolled toward Kostyantynivka, a fortress town just 30 miles northeast of the main locus of the fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast: the ruins of Pokrovsk.

But if the Saturday skirmish near the village of Rusyn Yar was any indication, a Ukrainian brigade has found a way to sustain front-line surveillance even in the worst weather. Instead of deploying aerial surveillance drones, the 93rd Mechanized Brigade “Kholodnyi Yar” deployed ground surveillance drones that are largely unbothered by foggy skies.